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Money May Concludes with a “G Day” +$1,012 | Steve’s Futures Pulse 153

Steve_5.31

Well Futures Warriors, we did it again. We closed out another green day, and what I like to call a ‘G day.’ Green, and we made over $1,000 today. Today’s session during the pre-stream I took a losing trade right out of the gates, but we stuck to our trading plan. We found a nice technical break back to the upside of the EBN S&P, and we got it all back in just over $1,000 by the time it was all said and done. If you’ve been following along, we had just two red days for the entire month of May, which has me super excited to be bringing in the month of June with you here in the Futures trading chat room. I recorded all of the action as I traded here today, and this is what you’re going to see in today’s Futures Pulse. Enjoy, and I’ll meet you back at the markets on Monday. So long.

All right, were we go. Sing a little song with me. [Singing 00:00:56] … Here we go. We’re long for 57 and a half. Market’s at 61 and a half. We’re off to the races. We’ve got our stop down at 50 and three quarters, nice wide stop. We wanted to come down below that technical low. We’re going to be eager to move that stop up. I would love to get our stop up here, and then next pit stop here. A little bit down below that 27 57 and a quarter area, which will take the vast majority of the risk out of the equation.

All I’m waiting for here is for this market to give us that break above, and start to give us that little bit more buffer of profitability on this trade. Getting a little bit of resistance here on that supply level. Again, that’s that red line from [Taz Boxes 00:01:43]. We expect that, okay? That’s our expectation when we approach those supply levels. Remember, those are the upper band of what’s considered the fair auction and market likes to retreat and kind of come back into that comfort zone in the middle there, okay?

We’re looking at a 10, a 30 minute chart here. This chart right here is our 30. Look at that nice big open alligator’s mouth waiting for the market to get chomped on. Over on the 30, we’d like to break above that 66 and three quarters mark. We’ll likely get a nice little long range bar there. That’s what we’re waiting for. On the 10 over here, again, a bit more sensitive. We’re going to start going into breakout mode. If we start getting above 27 62 right up here, … This is the area that we’re looking to be. I’m going to put a couple of these up here, because this is the green pastures we seek; and I do mean green, if we get there.

All right. If you’re a little antsy, on the right side of the equation, remember just because I have not yet moved my trailing stop, you can move it just below the 55 and a quarter mark, which is right there. Or, if you want to really tighten it up, you could tighten it up behind that 57 and a quarter. I think about 56 and three quarters, which is right there as well.

Casey Kasem and your top 40. Now, new on the charts, trader Steve, Futures Warriors follow the yellow arrow. … [Singing 00:03:07] …

Okay, some areas here we want to be paying attention to on this S&P. So 27 70 up here is that area of that kind of neutral territory here. For those of you that are using your Taz price compression levels, remember these levels down here, the red, blue, and green. I’m looking to draw your attention. I know your eyes are all over here, but draw it way over here. These are going to give us those three levels of support resistance on the trade. So S1 level is the red one, S2 is the blue, and then three … What we pay attention to is that the market will navigate between these support and resistance. What we’re looking for is the market to make a run towards 27 70, and if we get there, of course we’ll be happy, because this market will be moving in our favor here if we get up near this. As we approach that, again, those could be other zones that we look for to take advantage of in terms of profit taking on the trade; if we get there.

Market is stalling out just a little bit here. We’re sitting here at 27 60 and a quarter. We’re long from 57 and a half, which is right here where I drew that line right there. We’ve got exhaustion warning on that little bit longer term 30. We’re starting that upward pointing trajectory. That’s all fine and dandy for our bullish perspective. We’re just being patient here. Market’s still down big. Remember who’s on tariffs, and tweets, and Trump, and this, and that. You can’t keep up with it all. That’s what the beauty of technical trading is all about is you don’t have to feel like you need the world’s fastest squawk.

In the information game, I always tell everybody here, you’re not going to beat the pros, the institutions, at the information game. They get the information speedy fast, and many of them even have algorithms programmed to read the information and react to it. You’re not going to beat them at that game, but what you can beat … the big traders at, and the institutions is, is making some good common sense moves.

Here we go, come on. Are we going to make that surge higher? … I tend to get the racetrack voice when the market starts moving. …

All right, guys. Let’s start to look for at least putting something in there for a first tier objective. Now, we talked about being able to grab about 10 points on this one. Here’s our long 57 and a half, so 67 and a half is going to be just a bit above where I’d like it to be; because look at the top of the box comes in here at 67. I’m looking at this low value area here at 66 and a quarter as well. If you want to be … if you want to kind of take the … easier exit. Should we get the break up above, you’re going to be looking at 65 and a half, 65 and a half. You’re going to grab eight points, which would be right there.

Long from here. That’d be a T1 or a target one. If we get that, and market’s retreating off this supply area, second time now. We’ve got to keep a close eye on that here. Market’s retreating off that 61 and three quarters mark supply area. We’ve got some master point of control and congestion down here. We still got master point of control and POC, and levels down below. We want those to just continue to work for us. …

These are areas, too, if you’re a scalper. If you don’t like … If you like your market exposure time to be minimized, remember, you can … If you get an entry like we did kind of near the bottom of the box, that bottom green line; remember, it’s okay to be looking at profit taking as we approach the top, the top red line. You’re capitalizing and grabbing some profits, what we call ‘in the box’ here; even without the market making the break. That’s what I’m still holding out for that, and just trying to be patient here as I wait for the market to possibly give us that. Okay, anything’s possible. Market could also re-break down below, but we’ve got some good levels here down below that give us an opportunity to still stay in this trade. Okay, we got POC. We’ve got demand levels, demand levels here, master point of control. You’ve even got this S1 level back here. You’ve got all kinds of levels here sitting underneath where the market is, and that’s good if you’re on the long side, okay? …

Well, of course. Who doesn’t want to go to Disneyland? Disney World? I’ve never been to Disneyland, actually. I’m sure it’s pretty cool, the California one? …

Honey, I’m sorry. Pack your bags. I know the kids have soccer and baseball, but instead, we’re going to Disney World. …

Oh, I hear you. I’m not one for crowds, so … The going to busy places to see cool things, and shows and stuff has its place. That’s for sure, but my pace is probably a little bit more beach-like. A small secluded place to gather my thoughts. These markets obviously move plenty fast. I don’t need a horde of people to make me feel like that.

We’re still watching here. Now, market’s now testing. Now the downside, look at all the market fully explored inside the box here. Now the market is kind of testing, having us on the edge of our seat here as the market has bounced right back down towards the demand zone. …

Let me show you the edge here offscreen so you can see what it looks like. It was looking good, looking good at this point here. Then, look at the retreat here. We’re seeing that the retreat on red line. We want to see that follow through. We want to see the green line and the bowls follow through and continue to surge higher, but instead here again, we’re seeing that market press back down. Look at this, look at the retreat factor here on the bowls here; just like that. We’ll see. Market is obviously kind of bottoming out here and trying to find its comfort zone, but it could have another wave lower. If it does again, we got a stop remember at 50 and three quarters; because look at this. This thing could slide all the way down to 27 42, and below that, my goodness, you could be knocking on the door of 2700, 27 06 down. We want no part of that here, okay? …

Risk first. …

One of my favorite thing about having kids is you get a second chance to do a bunch of things that otherwise maybe wouldn’t be appropriate to do as an adult by yourself without the guise of children. You get to kind of do a lot of firsts a second time, which is pretty cool. Those of you that have kids know what I’m talking about. There’s nothing cooler than watching them experience a first, whether it’s fireworks for the first time, which is usually a frightening thing. Meeting the Easter Bunny, which in our house, it was a frightening thing for my little two girls anyway. They were deathly afraid of the Easter Bunny for some reason. Santa often times gets that reception as well when they’re young. Then of course, they learn to love Mr. Santa as they establish … have a better understanding of what he brings in that big red bag. Amazing how it changes. Deathly afraid of this big burly guy with a white beard, until you realize he’s the one that drops these pleasant gifts underneath the tree. …

There’s a lot of good reasons to be scared of clowns these days, right? There’s some good scary movies out there pertaining to clowns. It’s hard to get a good clown anymore. Barnum and Bailey’s gone. No more circus. Where do you get to see a clown these days? I guess the kids’ birthday parties, you could hire one. …

So test of patience. Partly what I’m doing here in talking to you is helping you to avoid the temptation to get antsy on this trade. …

There she goes. … Now watch that 65 and a half, 65 and a half high right now, 63 and three quarters; but it’s good news that the market’s broke up there now. …

Boom goes the dynamite. Come on, do the right thing. Don’t be afraid, market. You’re doing the right thing. We told you all along, all you need to do is [singing 00:14:24] …

We’re running into a little bit of this resistance here spawned by that point of control on our Taz Boxes prior. … Now it’s a good time. I’m going to be moving stops up here now on the trade. If we move back down below inside the box here as well, I’m going to take a risk management move, so get ready. I’ve got 65 and a half as a target, which is I’m going to draw it right about there. As we start to come back inside the box here as well, we’re going to be watching, especially on the close here. Now, that’s seven minutes away yet. I’ll look to trim some of the risk at a profit. Again, we’re long for 57 and a half on this one. I got right in here where I made the mark here. We’re in a good spot. I’ve got 65 and a half. We’ll take eight points at that point. That’d be a nifty little trade for us here. We’re almost there. We’re 64 even, 64 and a half is where I’m looking to take some profits. Shooting for eight points, should be $400 a contract.

High of the current bar as you’re watching it here is 64 and a quarter. Come on. This is one of those ones that’s just teasing me here, 64 and a quarter. Market’s retreating off that 64 even. For me, that’s not worth splitting hairs on that sort of scenario. I’m going to come on down. I’m going to take some profits right here. Scaled out a portion of my trade. Beautiful thing. I ended up getting out of that one here at … It looks like 63 and a half. Sold out 63 and a half. Make sure you adjust your stops accordingly. A long 57 and a half. We end up getting six points, $300 a contract out of that.

Didn’t want to split hairs on that. Now, market can retreat at any time. We saw it retreat, came within one tick of my original target here; 65 and a half. Market pulled back, so we got 63 and a half, so be it. Not splitting hairs over a nice trade there. …

Do need to adjust two things now. Let’s tackle the risk side of the equation here. Okay Daniel, nice job. You’re in the green, heading out for work for the day. Always a tough task when you sit in front of the computer making a few bucks even before you go to work. Happy Friday to you. We’ll see you next week. …

I want to adjust the risk here on the remaining lot size here that we have in play here. I had 12 units on that. I sold out six, by the way. So I’ve got six left, and I’m going to … We’re going to take a huge chunk of the risk out of the equation here on this one. Okay, we’re going to bring that stop all the way up just down below our master point of control, which you can see if you follow my cursor right here, it comes in at 56 and a half. Down here, … we’ll take a look here, 56 even is where I’m going to be putting the stop right there. We trim our risk all the way down to a point and a half, 56 even on the stop. From 50 and three quarters, all the way up to 56. Again, that trims our risk down to a whopping … What’s that? A $75 risk. $75 risk per contract. Okay, I’ve got six units left on this. It’s a beautiful thing. …

I’m going to show you the edge here as well, so you can see what that looks like. … Here you go. This is the power of the edge. Robert’s up $900 on two contracts. You’re welcome. No need to thank me, however. I mean you pulled the trigger. You take on the risk, you deserve the pat on the back. … Marcus pulling back and retreating inside this long range bar. It’s coming in to that long range slip and slide bar here. That’s what we’re seeing going on here on the chart. Following the edge here, remember.

Good job. It was not easy now. Remember, we wiped away our early loss in the trade, our first attempt on the long side here. Remember, we took a 59 and three quarters, stopped out 52 and three quarters in this volatility right here, but yet we have the discipline, and it takes discipline. It’s not easy to come back and see a technical set-up in a market that just gave you a loser. It’s really hard. …

Marcus pressed right on that master point of control here. I’m sorry, POC, point of control, not master point of control. That’s a little bit lower down here. …

See if we can’t get another push higher. I’m still long six units, by the way, so I’m up about a $1,000 in open trade equity on this one from 57 and a half, so we’ll see. I’d like to see another break higher. I’d like to see a push towards 27 70, to be honest with you here, but back towards the neutral area on our price to press levels. …

Market continuing to make some progress through the value area. Remember, value area is going to be from red to green line, also called the balance area, fair auction, Taz Boxes. Would love to see that break above 66 and three quarters. We’d love to see it get back above that 62 zone, and make a run towards 27 70. If it does, we’ll be happy. Come on, market. Don’t you want to make me happy? …

I am back in the green today, yeah. As it stands now. Now, we’re still at large on the current trade, but so far, so good. …

So first trade’s at six units. First trade was down $2100 on the first one, but we made back 1800 on our scale out of our first six units on the comeback trade. Then again, we’re up about 1100 right now. Net on the day, up about $800. We’ll still see, again, going to be dictated on our exits and management of this trade right now. We’ve grossly alleviated the risk side of the equation. Again, trimming the risk on this entry substantially … from about, what? What is it? Seven points approximately, to just a point and a half now. …

Well, I’m getting to the point here where I’ve definitely got things to do. We’ve been trading … I went to look at my watch, but this is one of these FitBits, by the way, which is quite interesting. It’s kind of a blessing and a curse. I’ve been trying to be more in tune with my health, my walking, my sleeping, all that good stuff; but I put it on the inside here of my wrist. I just went like this to look at the time, and the time is on the inside.

Question coming in here is Paul, why don’t I just book a profit, call it a day? Well, the reality is that there’s an element of that, that is certainly attractive right now. Well, I can do that. I’m likely here soon, as my … I call it kind of my time based stop. I’ve got things to do today. Look, I’ve got a life outside trading. In fact, I think there’s a program at the school I’ve got to go sit in here shortly. I got to talk to my wife about that. Been working here for about an hour trading, best job on the planet. Work one hour, make some money, and be done; but I’d still like to keep a little skin in the game here on a part of this trade.

Now market, I think anyone could have another downside leg here, so you are right. There’s definitely an element where I’d like to trim and still keep maybe that runner in place, especially if we start moving back down below the boxes. We’re starting to kind of show some signs of that here right now. See this? So if we start to creep just a bit lower, I will be able to move myself into a worse case green day, and then keep that runner in play through the market pop, and we’ll have at least one contract in play for that one. We shall see. …

Sherry, I’m not doing anything on Monday and Tuesday. That was in the month of March, I did that every Monday and Tuesday; by announcement only. I think I’m probably going to do a session in June, but there’s not a regular Monday and Tuesday session … at this time. I did that … I did do that for the entire month of March, however. …

Sure, I can give you some thoughts on crude oil. Here’s crude oil. It’s a little busy here on the ten minute. We are way down, of course, on the 30. My only trade on this one would be looking for a buying opportunity if we start to head up into this open space up here. Okay, we can see, again, the Taz indicator’s giving quite the path here for the breakdown trade. We’re a little noisy here, and you can also see visually when you’re using your market profile indicators, that you’re below that congestion as well. It’s just a tad bit early to be looking for that buying opportunity. I’d like to see it come above 55, 60, as we would be at that point above our congestion zone here. Then you’d be back above your congestion zone here. That’s what we’re looking for. Remember, you want to look at your chart and say, ‘Hey, if I’m going to get long here, do I got a whole bunch of volume congestion and market profile I have to work through?’ You want to do it after you’ve cleared those zones.

All right, we’re popping up in the S&P here, back to the S&P. We’re making … a good little bit here now. Yippee-skippy. I got no swing trades at this time. Nope.

Here we go. You can kind of see … That’s what’s in play. I came all the way back, was down 2100 on the first go around. Made 1800 on the second trade, and then we got 19-50 running there on six units. … See at the top there? That’s where we’re at. Long, e-mini S&P, and so it’s net realized minus 300, because we took $2100 loss in the first attempt on the long side. We had the right idea, just a tad early. Then we came back, got 1800 of it back on the last trade. We got a nice goody to manage here. We’ll end up green today. Don’t worry. I won’t let this thing run too far, too far against us here. …

Who’s ready for some air drums? … That’s not the sound of air drums. That’s trumpet drums, and you don’t play a trumpet like this. Gosh. All right, guys, we’re back inside the value area. See that? So it’s time, I’m going to sell off five of my units. We’re going to get it all the way down to my runner, just closed it out just moments ago. Five of the six units, so I’m down to my runner, which is a beautiful thing. Make sure you go in and adjust your stop accordingly if you’ve got multiple lots still in play. Remember, we have stops sitting at 56. I’ve got to reduce mine all the way down to just one. Now I have, … I’ll assure that this is a green day.

Net up on the day now $700. It didn’t start that way. I think it was a good lesson in quitters never win. So if you just took … If you kind of got sour grapes on the market just because you didn’t start out with a winner, I mean it’s like playing a baseball game, and because you didn’t hit a home run on the first swing, forget it, I’m not playing. I mean, come on. Or bowling. I used to bowl when I was a kid. I was a darn good bowler, by the way. I was almost a 200 average at about the age of eight. Can you believe that? I got trophies and patches to prove it if you don’t believe me. I used to be … I used to dig bowling … at a young age.

I’m down to my single unit here now. You can see where we’re at basically now, down to single one. One unit left. We’ve now realized … We brought that all the way back to plus 700 starting initially, remember, down 2100 on the day. … We’re in a good spot now. We will win on that trade. We’ll finish off the week. We’ll finish off the month. We’ll finish off … Well, we’re having a good year, too, but we’re not done. We got a ways to go. We’re not finishing off the year yet. We still got a lot of training to do this year. Don’t you be going anywhere. …

Thanks for joining, Steven. Come on back. We want you more than five days in here. You’ve got trading to learn.

All right, hey. We’re back above the boxes here now. We’re back above the supply area. Look at all the space up here. See how we see the rejection tail, which is this little area. I’m going to make it into a triangle here so you can see it, okay? So this is an area where the market will do one of two things here on this trade. Time to move the stop up, by the way. We’re going to lock in a worse case scenario, profit on our final unit. We’re going to move our stop up here. I want to show you where we’re going to put it. The POC line right here comes in at 59. We’re moving our stop up to 58 and a half, which means our worse case scenario on this final unit, we’re going to add another 50 bucks to the trade. It just kind of feels good to basically know that we’re going to finish on a high note, no matter what. So adjust your stop on this here. If you’ve got it down on 56, move it up to 58 and a half. Then that would be if that market pulls back down right here, here’s your eyes. Okay, right here. Okay, here’s your eyes, and there’s your nose, of course, and your smile right there. Take your eyes, and the stop is right there now.

Now, this thing started, I want you to understand the path if you just logged in. We started with a wide stop here. Then we move it 56 right here. We went this way, this way, and now our stop is here. That’s better than our 57 and a half trade right here. We’re going to have another winner here. Worst case scenario, right now still looking pretty good. We’re up about $300 on that final one. …

Well, I try to … I appreciate you … Paul, your remark there about how do you learn the demeanor of being … kind of the temperament is what you’re talking about, of being a successful trade. You’re exactly right. In fact, I’m one step ahead of you. In my upcoming mentor session, which I believe is June … I want to say 25th. By the way, keep an eye on gold over here, starting to break down. On June 25th, for those of you that are Warrior Pro members, you have access to those mentor sessions. My topic, which I already provided to them, is actually mind over matter. I’m going to talk about some of those things, about how today being a good example. We started with a losing trade. I wasn’t happy. I mean I’m down 2000 bucks, $2100 before I even took three sips of my coffee on six units now.

It’s all relative, whether you’re trading the micro, whether you’re trading one mini … Losing on a trade is not fun. But, if you’re a technical trader and you’re within your risk tolerance all along, and when you put on trades, you truly are accepting of the risk and the very real possibility you can lose. You really shouldn’t … It shouldn’t put you in a bad mood. It shouldn’t make you be miserable to be around. You should not feel like you want to bury your head in the sand. If that’s the case, that means that trade was too much risk to begin with. I say all the time, if a trade losing on an individual trade makes you so sour at the market, that you’re in a bad mood, or no one wants to be around you in your life, you’re risking too much on your trades. You might be having a little bit more of the gambler’s mentality in there where you’re swinging for the fence. You’re putting on the trade with risk, but you’re really not accepting of the risk. That’s not how trading works. You really have to mentally be accepting of the risk you put on, otherwise as today as an example, you’re not going to have the discipline to come back and make the next trade, even though it’s a good technical set-up. Again, because you were gambling; mentally, you were gambling. …

Fear and greed, those are still remain. I know you hear that an awful lot, but it’s true. Fear and greed are the two biggest human emotion drivers that plague traders. Fear, meaning not hanging in there, not giving the time for the trade to evolve. You get out so quick, right? You’re trading fearful, even if you’re on your winning trade. You’re so afraid of losing that you never can let a nice trade materialize for yourself. That’s different from things like a time stop coming in, or a life stop, I call it, where life pulls you away. That’s going to happen. You’re not going to be taking yesterday, made money in the crude, as you know, and it … I could have made a whole heck of a lot more if I was sitting in front of the screen all day, the entire day, and hanging in there with my entire position. But look, I made money, another green day, moved in the right direction. Made almost $800. Albeit, I could have made more. There’s always with the benefit of hindsight, a way to say I could have made more; but we don’t trade on that. We trade on that hard right edge. You have to make the best decisions you can with the information you got at every moment and time you trade.

Don’t ever beat yourself up about making decisions based upon what you knew at the time. I think far too often, people call my office or talk to my team, or people even come into the Warrior team, or even ask Ross and Mike, my dear friends, where’s the market going to be tomorrow? Where’s the market going to be next week? Remember, that requires something that does not exist. Unless you can find it, please let me know, which is the ability to predict the future. I don’t ever advertise that I’m teaching you how to predict the future. I’m teaching you, make no mistake about it, how to revolve probabilities and make decisions around probabilities. Notice I’m not saying certainties, or guarantees. Probabilities. Probabilities of things happening are good if certain things are going on, on the chart. I’m trying to teach you what those things are.

You still have to realize that even in the best moon’s alignment charting set-up, still, you can lose money because volatility, if something happens in the world around us. There’s a tweet that goes out. Someone trips and falls in a political office. There’s all kinds of things that can impact commodities that have nothing to do with the technicals. You have to be accepting that it is true that you can do everything right as a technical Futures trader, and still lose money. You can’t take it personally. You can’t. You got to take all those conspiracy theories and throw … get them out of your mindset, because I think that’s just a way we, some traders protect their ego when they’re getting some bad breaks, or they’re losing money. ‘The market’s out to get me. It can see a big asterisk on my orders.’ Trust me, as a retail trader, the market does not know who you are. In fact, you are anonymous, remember? Your broker knows who you are, but the market doesn’t know who you are. In fact, it doesn’t know when it fills a stop order, whether you’re … if it’s a new entry into a trade, or whether it’s exiting a trade that you already have. The clearing process knows. Your broker knows, but the exchange itself just does what you tell it to do. …

All right, guys. My life stop has kicked in. You know what that means: time to get out. I’m going to cover that last unit here right now. 63 and three quarters, I’m out. Hey, we had a G day to finish the month. Here you go. $1,012.50. … That’s all she wrote for me. Life has called me. I’m going to go play with my kids. I’m going to actually probably hit the driving range here. I need to work on my golf game. I’ve got a tournament, a charity event that I participate in. Of course, now the market can rally for the rest of you. It’s still a nice technical set-up to remain long, but I’m going to be straying away from the screen. I’m going to take it.

Hey, we worked hard today, guys. Those of you that are in here for the first time, I hope you keep coming back to learn Futures trading from me here. I’d love to have you join my army of Futures Warriors. We’re growing. We’re learning. We’re trading, this month. Yeah, that’s right. Just two losing days the entire month. I’m going to call that a victory. Looking forward to June. I think we’re going to have great trading months through the summer. I’m going to be here to help you every step of the way. …

Member chat will remain open, of course, the remainder of the session. So long everybody. Until I meet you back, trade well and be well. Bye-bye.