Warrior Trading Blog

Steve’s Big Family Surprise! | Steve’s Futures Pulse 169


It’s in the middle of the night. It’s after 10:00 PM in Chicago, and my plans for Friday just took a terrible turn for the better, and that’s because those that joined me live in the Futures Trading chat room saw me trade in realtime markets, and I set a one-day challenge that if I made $2,000 in the day, which remember, is before midnight of course, that I was going to take the entire family, all three of my youngsters, to Universal Studios in Orlando, Florida.

Well, I got to tell you, it was not looking good today. I had two losses and then just one win today, and I was down about $1,500, but in the afternoon I found a shorting opportunity in light, sweet crude, and guess what happened? Boom. In the overnight, the market dropped, and I am on my way to Orlando. Here’s the cool thing. We didn’t even tell the kids yet. We booked the flights, we packed the bags in the middle of the night, and that’s why I’m doing the recap so late. Don’t worry. I’ll take some footage and let you follow along with my fun little long weekend in Orlando, Florida. But before I do, let me get you caught up to speed at what we did earlier today and how I scored a big victory in the light sweet crude to pack our bags. Enjoy today’s Futures Pulse Market Recap. Come on.

Okay. I’m up here on the top right of your screen. Before I get into the charts here, you’re probably wondering, what’s the deal with my shirt? I’m feeling lucky. Well, it was kind of a joke that I put this on here to come on over into my office and do the recap, because I actually don’t believe in luck, as a trader, anyway. I believe that if you follow a blueprint, if you follow the same process over and over again, and you believe in your strategy, and you deploy it with discipline and patience over time, it’s a numbers game, and you create your own break.

Anybody that knows me, this is a somewhat a kind of a joke or a sarcastic shirt that I’m wearing here, because I don’t believe in it as it relates to trading. Actually, I’m probably the most unluckiest guy on the planet as it relates to gambling or anything like that. I never win anything, I mean literally anything in my entire life. I always have to work for it, and trading is no different. In fact, in the last few weeks I’ve had a couple of bad bounces where I get stopped out by a tick here, a tick there, only to see my technical direction be spot on, but volatility stopped me out. That’s called a bad break, but I don’t take that personally. I stick to my trading plan, and everything else takes care of itself.

Okay, so long story short, today’s one day challenge was I needed to make $2,000 in the day. Well, I guess if you only trade stocks, that would be by the time they ring the bell in the afternoon, but in futures trading, if I’m going to make it in a day, I’ve got until midnight, right? In theory, quote-unquote. And so here’s what came to life here.

I’m going to talk you through the charts. We made three trades and then the grand finale in the light sweet crude, we had basically gold, cattle, the E-mini S&P, and then like I said, the crude, so a total of four today. So it was busy day and we had many challenges that required patience and sticking to our stops and not waving the white flag prematurely. And I’m going to talk you through all of the technical items on these charts, so you learn something from today’s activity.

Okay, so the first thing is when we enter the gold market here, I’m back in time here. This is, you can see in the time when we’re live in the session, we ended up entering long because we are above this key supply area. Here we talk about this, I know it sounds like a broken record, but when you’re above that top supply line, that’s the upper band in the balance area. When you’re above that line, you trade long. Those big bright green color bars are an indicator called TAS Vega that make it clearer for you to be able to see when that’s happening. So we got long, 1,408 and a half that’s right there, and then we ended up riding up five of our six units to 1,410.90, which is actually a nice little break higher. It’s this stretch right here. I’m going to draw it right there. Okay. And then we actually were able to squeeze one last little bit on our last unit up to 1,411.70 it was all said and done. Long story short, we ended up grabbing 1,520 on that gold trade. Okay, so that was an early bright spot for us in the morning.

Now let’s go on to our most challenging trade, which was the E-mini S&P. As you’ll soon see, this one, we put in the red column. Not because that was my desire, but it’s just was the facts of the trade. Okay, let’s go take a look at the E-mini S&P. There we go. Oh, where are you? Here we go. Bingo. Okay, so let me go back in time on this one too. Let me go back, back, back, back, back, back, back. There we go, back to when we’re trading this thing. Here we go. Okay, cool. It’s this area right here. Okay. This is a little later in the morning, actually. I traded for longer than typical today and I saw this breakdown in the E-mini S&P. We ended up initiating a short position here at 2,925. Again, we started to see some parachutes down below and possibly a slip and slide possibility on the trade because of these previously established price bars. And when we see this, probabilities and over, if I were to make the same trade 10 times, probably seven out of 10 times we would get the follow-through in reality, but this was not one of those times.

This was one of those ones that was destined right out of the gates to go against us. So we called it quits on this one at 33 and a quarter, which was kind of a bummer, if you want to say, a kind of a bum thing here. It was 33 and a quarter, eight and a quarter points. We did have six units on that one, so 2,475 in the red, so we had be about 1,500. We’re doing okay on gold. Then we get back just short of $2,500 so net down, it’s called about 1,000 bucks and then we had this cattle trade.

Okay, so let’s move on into the cattle here. Here we go. Pardon how quickly I’m going, because as you can imagine, I’ve got to get some rest. I’m going to be up bright and early. In fact, we’re getting picked up. Limo’s picking us up at 5:45 AM and can’t wait to tell the kids when we nudge them in the morning, way earlier than they should be getting up on a on a summer Friday and tell them that, hey, we’re just going to go for a little ride. Okay. And then we’re going just obviously go right to the airport. I’ll keep you posted on that on social media if you’re following me, a member, you’re going to follow Future’s Warriors is my social media tag.

So here’s, here’s cattle. There we go. Boom, boom, boom. Let’s talk about this cattle. And by the way, this is one that should remain on your short watch list even as I’m en route on a plane tomorrow because this thing is way over extended. We see the extension bars here. This is trend exhaustion, warning, and look, this is right when we got into those peaking conditions and we started to see the market goes sideways. Now this one was … I still like this trade. This thing just ran out of time because if you know anything about cattle, it’s one of the few markets that really doesn’t trade nearly 24 hours. It ends about in the kind of middle of the afternoon and you got to wait. It is a big gap before I could start trading again to the following day. So this one we initiated a short position in the cattle and again, I still like this trade at 105.30, which is, I’ll draw a line. It’s actually right about where you see that aqua color line right there. And this one never did get the break.

So we initiated the short position in anticipation of this break. Good congestion up above. We actually call this an alligator jaw set up here, so we get a volume accumulation here. Another one down below and see how it kind of looks like the big open mouth of an alligator or I don’t know, some kind of scary beast? The market oftentimes will retreat into that alligator’s mouth is what the technical setup is. Anyways, you can see the market just stayed laterally and basically got to towards the end of the session. I didn’t want to carry the risk into the overnight for this particular market, and so we ended up weathering the uptick here on our stop. And a stop on this one was a … Where were we? Well we initially started 106.15 up here and then we trailed it down right in this ballpark, 105.92 and that held, you could see we did top out here, and that was a 105.85, and as it came back down it was getting towards the very end of the daytime trading session.

I covered at 42 for our 12 tick loss on that. On that one though. However, I did have … I lost 50 bucks a contract, but I had 12 units, so lost 600 bucks. So we’re kind of, you know, boom, so we’re down basically. You go in in the afternoon, down a little over $1,500 and it wasn’t looking too good for one-day challenge, to get myself to Universal Studios with the family and then crude oil happens. Let me bring up crude oil here and tell you what I saw on the chart, how we put this trade on and why I made the decision, the critical decision, to hold it into the overnight and anybody that was in the room with me, and those of you that been watching me here on YouTube know exactly what I talked about in the afternoon.

Initially I was going to call it quits on it, but I said you know I actually still like this. I think this thing still has potential to break technically to the downside so I’m going to keep it and I even gave the suggestion to those that need to clean up for day trade margin purposes, you can put the trade back on when the thing opens back up. Long story short, let me talk you through the crude oil trade. This one ends up being the trade that’s packs our bags on very short notice to Universal Studios. 59.22 was the short side entry and it actually started, let me show. There we goes in the afternoon. Over in here, we liked how we were over … You see on the tan over here? We liked how that was setting up, but we also back here, I want to go back in time just a little bit earlier here in the afternoon. It’s over here. Look over here. At this time we were starting to break down below this POC.

We get a little benefit of hindsight now of course, because the market’s been trading for some time. Here’s your quote on crude oil now, but we are emerging down below that POC line. And if I go back in time about the same spot over here, it’s back over … Here it is, right over in here. So 59.22. I try to hit as best I can with my chicken scratches here. So we hit, there’s the sell button there. We put the stop at … So we’re short 59.22. 59.62 right here is where we put the stop. This held. So remember when I talk about … I’m wearing this oxymoron shirt that says, “I’m not the moron part of that. I’m the oxy.” I think that you create your own luck. Now look, when you get that close in a market like crude oil, anything can happen, and I could just as easily get a bad bounce and I’m out of the trade, that’s for sure. But it was not an accident where I put it and why I put it there. I wanted to be above that supply area, wanted to be above this zone of technical high rate as well, and I was able to do that by putting that 59.62 stop and that’s what kept us in the trade.

Again, we weathered that that high that came in here. At one point, this got as high as 54, 59.54, so we’re within eight cents of the stop. And then guess what? We basically, the market broke. So this is the … In the overnight, I’ll tell you what time this kind of topped out here. This is about 8:00 in the evening. And then I had my stop in. Checked at it a little after dinner actually about this time when it was right sitting right here and really wasn’t too concerned about it. When I’ve got my stop and the overnight, it’s okay to not be glued to the screen the entire time if you’ve got your GTC stop in. And long story short, I went back to after giving the kids baths, came back to the charts and my wise placement, I stopped. I saw the market started to make this break and it started make it in grand fashion. Market came all the way down here, ended up grabbing 18 cents on this trade. My cover came at 59.04. So you see, it actually bottomed out perfectly at 59 right here. So 59.04. I didn’t buy the bottom, but that was enough to grab a nifty 43.20. You can see it’s sitting right up here. And that, I guess, you net it out from being down a little shorter.

1,600 bucks puts me over 2,000. It’s before midnight. And I was kinda chuckling. When this happened, I told my wife, she’s used this, I’ve been trading a lot. I was a trader the moment she met me 10 years ago. She knows this is how it goes. You’re dedicated to your craft, your technical trading, and there’s days where you get a bum break and you get a pat on the back and you get back to work. Like anything else. But there’s also times where you do your job, you create your own opportunities, you’ve done the time, you remain confident, you still pull the trigger with confidence in the afternoon on a day that otherwise it’d be real easy for me to say, “Ah, shucks. Not only did I not make money, I finished it in the red on a Thursday, which is never fun to do no matter what. But I don’t get to do this great surprise for my kids.”

Not the case. Wasn’t meant to be, so again, I’m going to be in flight. I’m Friday morning, I’ll help you. I hope you realize what this is about. This particular recap is not about tradings, about luck, it’s about, really, the big lesson, I think, and takeaway for anybody that’s watching me and following along is you do end up creating your own opportunities in trading.

In fact, if I were to sit here trading and I didn’t have to go get some rest, I could tell you nice little opportunity even emerging, coming right back the other way here. That’s the, that’s the beauty of it. And so I’m going to be bidding you farewell in just a moment, but you can see some interesting things may be emerging. Keep an eye on the cattle as well. By the time this is posted in the morning, because I hope to goodness my Warrior Trading video team is fast asleep getting their beauty rest, but keep an eye on this big break area down here at this 105.16 zone. If we start navigating down there and on the 30 below 104.81 again, we’re talking August cattle. This’ll be happening when I’m up 30,000 feet in the air. That’s a decent short sale as well and I like to trade just as much if I were in front of the screens at that particular moment.

But that’s it. I am going to go get some rest myself. I’ll be documenting my fun with the family out at Universal Studios this weekend. Have fun seeing a little peek behind the curtain in family life. Trader by day, dad, garbage taker outer, all that fun stuff. A regular guy, just like many of you. Anyways, thanks for watching. Look forward to meeting you back at the markets on Monday. And guess what? If you’re not a part of our community, what are you waiting for? It is so much fun. It’s one of the most interactive, empowering and ways to learn, and one of the best skills you can learn, which is self-sufficiency and independence and finding financials opportunity. And that’s what we’re all about here at Warrior Trading. So, so long everybody. Enjoy your weekend and reach back to the market soon. Trade well.

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