Warrior Trading Blog

4th Green Day in a Row! +$2K!

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What’s up everyone? All right, so here we are finishing Friday another green day. Four green days in a row, $10,000 in the last four days and that is a great way to finish the week. I’m going to break it all down in today’s mid-day market recap.

 

Remember any questions, any comments, leave them below and I’ll come back and answer them later this weekend. All right, I’ll see you guys on Monday. All right everyone. We’re going to start going over the trades from this morning. I’m finishing the day here up $2,087.36. Not bad. That’s the fourth green day in a row and it puts me up about $10,000 across the last four days. I am still down about $3,000 on the month, but this is a really good step in the right direction.

A couple more green days next week and I’ll be back into the green and can start to focus on the task at hand, which is trying to salvage some profit out of the month of August. August historically has been a difficult month for me. It’s not going to be the first month that I struggled a little bit or the first time I’ve had an August that was a little bit of a struggle. Part of it is a little seasonal here. We’re kind of, you know, in the slow summer months, trading can be a little bit more subdued. We don’t see as much volatility, not as many buyers. That means the breakouts are not as big, not as sustained. That means if you try to swing for the fences, if you try to get aggressive, more often than not you’re going to get stopped out and you’re going to take losses.

I’ve been keeping with my 6,000 share max size today and I was happy with that. Under my light speed trading size settings, I kept myself at my warning of 6,001 share. No size bigger than 6,000 and you know, to make $2,000 with 6,000 shares is good. I think that’s pretty solid. AWX is the big mover today. This one, when I first saw it on the scans I was like, I don’t think I’m going to want to trade this AWX. It made this huge move, whatever, a couple of weeks ago. Now I feel like it’s just, I don’t know, I just don’t think it’s worth trading. What’s really interesting is that it has more volume today than it had on any of those days during the move. I think what that says is that there’s a lot of traders who missed the move who decided to trade it today, you know, kind of a little bit of faux moments, stuff like that.

It attracted a lot more retail traders and by the end of the day, probably be above 20 million shares of volume. It’s going to be really high volume. Here’s the thing, this is gapping up on earnings that were posted after hours last night on Thursday, squeezed up to a high of 4.87. It was on our gap scanner. This morning I said, all right guys, let’s look at the gap scanner, historical time. We’re going to run this for 9:15 AM. I said, all right, look what our leading gapper is. Actually we had ESEA as a gapper, but that one had very light volume so I didn’t trade that one. AWX up 60% with one million shares of volume. This is the stock we’re definitely going to be watching. I said I have a bias to buy this on a break to premarket high for a long. So the break of the premarket high is there at 87, 85.

The bell rings and the first thing I did was punch the buy button to buy 6,000 shares at $4.90. I ended up selling it pretty quickly because it looked like there was a hidden seller there and I was a little nervous about getting it at 4.90 because it had just dropped to 4.50. It popped from 4.50 up to 4.90. I felt like I was getting in a little on the high side. When I started to see a little bit of resistance, I started selling more at 98 a little bit and then I guess the rest of 98 and then I added back at 5.16, 5.19 selling at 5.24, 5.33. Just like that, within two minutes I was up a thousand dollars on the day. What I did was I just traded this move here from 4.90 up to the high of about $5.40 right here. We hit 5.68 and then we started to pull back a little bit.

On this one we have this pull back and on the one minute chart you can see that this looks decent for a pop up here, but on the five minute chart I thought at that point that because we had this shooting star red Doji candle that it was too weak and I wouldn’t be able to buy it in this area and I was wrong. It ended up squeezing up here from 5.40 all the way up to $6.67. I mean, it put it in a nice big move. I ended up not getting in and not making anything on that, which is why I think I could’ve done a little better on it but in any case, $2,000 is a great day. 1,700 of it came from AWX and I can feel pretty good about that. At this point when it was consolidating up here, I said, nope, I don’t want to trade it. It’s too far above the nine moving average.

It’s above the 20 moving average. I’m not interested. Then it ended up selling off and you can see now it’s actually going low of day. I mean opportunity on the front and the back side of the move. It really is not holding up well at all. It looks like it’s going to probably close the day red and I’ll be happy that I took my profit way up here when I finally bailed out. A nice winner there. Then CARB, C-A-R-B, this was the other one that I jumped into. A big move yesterday in the afternoon. You can see the squeeze from $4 up to almost $8, nearly 100% yesterday. As I was watching it during the class, I knew that there was no catalyst but it was moving quickly and it was certainly tempting. This morning I was watching it to see if it would break over 6.40 it didn’t, it sold off out of the gates, and then it did a red to green move where this first candle was red and then the second candle started to pop up.

That’s where I jumped in right here for the red degree move, popped up to a high of $6.40. I sold at 6.24 and I stopped out the rest as it came back down and then made $354 on 2,800 shares. Wasn’t a big trade. It didn’t end up working out super well but you know, green is good. With that, I said, you know what guys, it’s 9:55 or something like that. I’m going to throw in the towel. Green is good. This is a great way to finish the week. There’s nothing better than finishing a Friday with a couple of green trades so I’m not going to push my luck. I’m going to take the money and hit the road, be done with it. That’s the plan here. I still have a little ways to go to get myself out of the hole, but I should be able to do it hopefully on Monday or Tuesday if we have some decent trading and get back to green on the month and then see if I can make I don’t know, 10, $20,000 this month.

Last August I made only about five or $6,000. So realistically anything more than that is a year over year improvement, which would be great. If I can get, I guess closer to 20,000, that would be terrific but it really does depend on the market. I mean, this is one of those things where if August continues to be slow, I’ll have to continue to trade with small size, which means the winners will be smaller, but you know what, $2,000 a day, if I can grind on these types of numbers and avoid taking any losses, any big, big losses, I’ll be in great shape, you know, $20,000 a day. Even if I hit that only three days a week or $2,000 a day, even if I hit that only three days a week, that’s $6,000 a week. That allows for maybe a small green day, a small red day, six times four is 24,000, $24,000 a month.

I can definitely grind on these types of numbers. The big thing is just keeping the stops tight. I did have one loser today on AWX. I got in it. I actually got faked out. I got in it at 5.15. Let’s see, where was it? Oh No, it was. Yeah, it was 5.15. I was in it here holding for this break over the highs and it dropped down and I stopped out at five and then it surged back up and I just got back in at 5.40, so I lost $200 on the loser and then got right back in and ended up making 600 on the next trade. I kept the loss tight. My kind of rule of thumb this week has been like 30 cent max loss. If it’s down more than 30 cents, I got to bail and I’ve done a good job following that rule.

Keep it going next week. I still have my rules for the month of August here on this piece of paper. Rule number one, shut off the monitor after your recap so you don’t get tempted into FOMO. Number two, $2,000 max loss on the day. The max loss is set up with my broker. Number three, if I have three red trades in a row, shut it down. Number four, tight stops, 30 cent max loss. These are the rules that will keep me going, right? This is a career where it’s survive till you thrive, and keeping these rules in place is what’s going to help keep me afloat during what may be a choppy month and a little bit of a slow period but that’s okay. If we take a quick look here at my trader view stats, someone asked me a question about my trades.

These stats are not updated for the month of August yet. These are as of, well, I can go year to date, whatever, but these are as of the end of July. You can see July, I had a couple, couple of red days, not too bad. August for sure got off to a rough start but if we look at the overall, the detailed, this is over the course year to date, a 68% accuracy, right? My accuracy is 68%. It’s almost crazy to me how if I take this out and just go, this is over the course of 2,600 trades. My accuracy is 69%. I mean this is like, it is overall a huge period of historical data, that is my number, you know, it’s 68, 69% on gross doing net profit, which means trades that were like a $5 winner, but we’re actually loser after commissions.

My accuracy is 66%, 67%, so 67, 68% that’s really where I’m at. Then when we look at the average winners and the average losers, my average winners over the last several years, $970, average losers, 896. I’m very close to a one to one profit loss ratio. I know that what I can do to become a better trader is tighten up the losses. You know, the largest gain here $12,000 loser. If I look at let’s see, by instrument, the stocks that have lost the most money on, on this stock, QUMU I lost $13,000. This one, 10,000 IZEA. HTBX, 10,000. I mean, all of these are big losses right there. You’re looking at like $75,000 in losers. If I could get better at just bailing out quickly that for me could be the difference between making whatever, $900,000 and making 1.5 million.

If I can tighten up these losers, having the winners be bigger is hard because I can’t control how strong the market is going to be, but I can control how long I’m going to hold a loser and it’s something that I struggle with. In the heat of the moment when you get into a trade and you’re in with 10,000 shares and five seconds later you’re down 3000 bucks, you can just have that deer in the headlights where you don’t make the right decision. Training yourself to bail out quickly. To recognize those exit indicators and get out of the trade is so important. Ultimately you got to get good at it with small size and then condition yourself so that when you finally get to trading eight or 10,000 shares, you don’t react differently because there’s more money on the line and your emotions are higher.

You’ve conditioned yourself so you’re feeling the same way as you felt a year and a half ago when you were trading with 5,000 shares. That for me is the big one, trying to tighten up those losers and then my profit loss ratio will improve. Even if my accuracy stays exactly the same, that’s fine. This is great accuracy. I’ve got no problem there. This is my issue is that my average losers are bigger than I’d like them to be and of course they get drawn down when you have one or two $12,000 losses. Those are brutal. On AWX today, one loss 200 bucks and the rest were green so that’s a solid day and I think we kind of called the top on this pretty well by walking away instead of trying to push for another trade up here around 6.50, 6.70. I feel good about that.

I’m just happy to finish the week with a green trade. I finished last week with, I think it was like three red days are two red days in a row and so this is just a much nicer way to end the week here. All right, so hope you guys all have an awesome weekend. All of you who are in the Warrior Pro class, we’ve got live classes starting in about an hour at noon time. Those of you guys who want to sit side by side with me and trade, you can do it in Orlando, Florida in September. All right, come join us for the inner circle seminar. It’s going to be a lot of fun. Still got a few tickets left and you’ll be able to really sit side by side with me while we’re trading. We’ll trade together.

Hopefully we’ll make some money and we’ll have a couple of good days. It’ll be a lot of fun either way. You’ll get to watch me trade, you get to learn a ton about trading. Meet a bunch of other traders. Attend the keynote speeches, meet some guys from Ben Zynga and Lightspeed and TAS Market Profile and meet the whole team at Warrior Trading down in Orlando. That’s coming up in September. Would love to have you guys join us and would love to meet you guys face to face, so that’s coming up soon. I think Mike can probably post the link here in the chat room for you guys. All right, so that’s it for me and I’ll be back at it first thing Monday morning.

I hope you guys have an awesome weekend. All right, I’ll see you all on Monday. Oh Hey, I didn’t see you there. I was just working on the dream board for my next home run trade. Hopefully it comes soon. Until then, make sure you subscribe to get email alerts anytime I go live or upload new videos. Until then, happy surfing.