Warrior Trading Blog

+$647 To Finish July! | Ross’ Trade Recap


What’s up everyone?

All right, so here we are, end of the road, end of the month, end of July. I’m going to finish up, oh, somewhere around $14,000. This week has not so far added much in the way of profit. Up 500 Monday, down 500 Tuesday, up $647 today.

So you know what, that’s fine. That’s kind of within the range of what I was expecting. Small green days, maybe small red days. Remember last week I said I’d really like to finish off this week with four more green days, and then it was three more and then two more. But I also preface that by saying, “If I have a red day, which I might, I just want to make it the best red day I’ve ever had, which means it’s a small red day.” So losing $500 yesterday was easy to dig myself out of that small hole and jump back today.

Now as we come into the month of August, the month that is statistically a little bit slow for me, I’ve got to be careful. It’s not a time for me to be swinging for the fences. It is a time for me just to try and get on base, make my $500,000 daily goal. If we have a couple of stocks during the month that give us surprise momentum and I’m able to get a 4, 5, $6,000 green day, that right there will make the month. And so I got to make sure that while I wait for that type of day, I don’t dig myself a hole. Small profit, small profit, small profit. Big green day, lots of small profit after that. That’s probably what it’s going to look like.

So let’s get ready. Buckle up. August is coming and we got to make sure we trade smart and exercise that muscle of discipline. All right, see you guys first thing tomorrow morning, August 1st.

All right everyone. So we’re going to do our midday market recap a little bit on the earlier side, but no reason to push my luck here. It is the last day of July, what has been a little bit of a tricky month, and just to finish with one more green day is terrific. So the winner, DMPI, the loser, HEPA, net profit $647. So, nothing to be super excited about. Sort of typical. HEPA was disappointing. This one got me right out of the gates. What I tried on this, was a break of the premarket highs. That’s a gap-and-go strategy setup. And so I jumped in this, I believe it was 30 for anticipating the break over the premarket high, which was 41. We hit a high of 40 but we double-topped at that level and then immediate rejection coming back down, and that’s where I stopped out.

So just instantly down, almost $1,400 put me well into the red, which would have been the biggest red day I’ve had in, well, I guess about a week. So that I wasn’t happy about. But you know just said, “All right, well that is what it is. We’ll see if anything else starts to open up and give me an opportunity.”

Now HEPA was on the watch list this morning, or the gap scan. I’m trying to see where it is here. It was gapping up around 9%. There it is. So 7% right here. But yeah, it just didn’t get follow-through. It actually had news today, which is good to see. But posted at 920. But yeah, no follow through. So that’s disappointing. So that costs me about $1,400, and then at that point I just started watching the high day MOMO scanner. ENPH hit the scanners. I saw some of you guys trading it. I just said to myself, “You know what? You’re already down $1,400. If you take a trade on this thing and you lose, you’re going to be so frustrated with yourself,” because you’re going to say, “Why are you trading a $26 stock that’s got 100 million share float?” And so I left it alone. In fact though, it did a nice pullback right here and it did a really nice one right here. So, I’m glad to see you guys who traded it and made money. That’s terrific. I’m happy to see that.

But for me, I didn’t have a cushion on the day and like I said, I would’ve been disappointed in myself if I had traded it because even if I had made money, I would’ve made money breaking the rules. That’s one of the hardest things in the market, is getting that positive reinforcement for a negative behavior. Now, if you want to change your rules and say, “Well, I’m going to start trading stocks above $20 with 500 shares, and I’m going to test it out for a month, and if I perform well, then the next month I’ll go up to a thousand shares,” that’s fine. But just to jump over to a $25 stock because you’re red and it’s the only thing moving. That’s not a good reason. That’s breaking rules.

So I stayed disciplined even though I was feeling a little FOMO seeing it move and seeing you guys make some money on it, even though I was sitting on the sidelines. But I think that that was the right decision because it just as easily could’ve gone the other way and could have been a really good size loss, especially if I took a trade on this with 6,000 shares or something like that.

So, left that alone, kept watching the scanners. WKHS popped up, 60 million share float, left it alone. DMPI comes up right here. That was my first trade, or the first trade after HEPA. So DMPI comes up and it first hits a high of a $1.14. It then pulls back and I jumped in on the first pullback right here. We got that. Actually I think I took a scalp. I took a scalp around the break of two and then I got in for the first pullback again. So I think this was my second trade right here. We got a break at 214. Move up to 220, 230, 237. You can see though that these candles, as it was getting higher: Doji, doji, doji. Candles [inaudible 00:06:11] decision. A little pullback. I got back in right here for the break over the high. I hit a high of 40, 44, 45. It pops up to 58, finally gets a couple of bigger green candles and then it comes back down.

So, it really wasn’t the easiest with this kind of struggle that it had right through here in the 30s. And then I took one more trade on it right here, getting back in on the first five minute candle to make a new high. Also a one minute ABCD setup. But I… Well we did get a break over the half dollar to 54. I entered on this candle here. I held through the pullback. It then pops up and I got out for a couple cents of profit, nothing to be super excited about. So my exit there, I was in at 45, 47 as it was popping up. 52, I sold half or sold… Got partial fill on the ask at 46. Hit the bid. 51, tried to sell more on the ask. Partial fill again. I think I hit the bid again, 49, and then sold the rest at 45. So even though it broke over that half dollar, it wasn’t very convincing. It didn’t hold and now it’s come back down.

So, $2,000 on DMPI is not bad. The 1300 loss on HEPA is disappointing. Felt like a little bit of a bigger loss than I really should have taken, but it just comes with the territory. So that’s the way we’ll finish up the month of July. $647 and 91 cents.

So yeah, that’ll be it here. Not the most exciting month. I’m pretty-much for this last week, made 557 on Monday, lost 594 on Tuesday, up 647 today. So, one step forward, one step back, one step forward. We’ll see what Thursday and Friday have in store for us.

But of course the first two days of August, a month, that is statistically one of my worst. So I am not excited about that. I’m going to be trading more conservatively. In fact, I’m going to just go ahead and do myself a favor here and bring my share size down to 6,000 shares going into August. There’s just no reason to be… Did I save or do that? I just closed that. I just don’t think there’s any reason to be more aggressive. The problem is it’s easy in the moment to say, “Oh, this thing is strong. I’m going to go ahead and jump in here. I’ll take 9,000 shares.” And then it fails. So, you have to expect that it’ll fail. Even though it looks A-quality I’m thinking this is the type of stock that I should be aggressive on. No, it’s probably best just leaving it alone.

So let me give you my metrics from last July. Let’s see. So… reports. All right, so we’ll pop that up here. So 7, 1, 2018. 7, 31, 2018. Yep okay. So filter. So this was last July. Yeah $60,000 of profit, not bad. 68% accuracy. Interestingly, average winners and average losers, a 1:1 ratio. A $10,000 winner. I mean, I don’t know. Something was working there pretty well, clearly. This year, not including… I don’t think this includes this week. Let’s see. Let’s look at the calendar. Yeah, so this doesn’t include this week, although this week is basically flat, so it doesn’t make a big difference. Let’s go to net and that’s actually net. So only about $14,000 of profit. Accuracy, slightly better, but this profit loss ratio is terrible.

So what that tells you is that I had a couple of, not just a couple, I had several bigger losses and that drove down my average loss. So my average loss was a little bigger than normal. My average winner was a lot smaller than normal. If we look at, we just go back for a full year on my average winners, my average winners are 844. So, the winners were a good, I don’t know, 20%, 30% smaller. And the average losers were about 20% bigger. That doesn’t work super well. Now of course that’s just one month, but clearly not the most impressive month.

So yeah, I don’t know. Yeah, I was up 26,000 after the 10th, really nice hot streak, but then I started giving some of it back and now I’m coming back up here. So I won’t have gotten all the way back to the highs. But you know what, again, I’m just reminding myself, “Hey, you know, you’re walking away with more money than you had at the beginning of the month. No reason to beat yourself up too much.”

So, that’s about it for me. We’ll see how August looks. But we’ll set low expectations, make it a month focused on discipline, really strengthen that muscle, and coming into the fall I’ll be glad that I was working on it.

All right, so I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning.

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