Warrior Trading Blog

A Great Start For June! +$10K | Ross’ Trade Recap


What’s up, everyone? All right, so here we are, first trading day of June, and I’m going to finish the morning up $10,346.60 on three trades; two winners and one loser. Now as is sometimes typical, my first trade right out of the gates, I got knocked down. I took a $1400 loss and I came back aggressive, swinging the first really good quality setup off the watch list. I jumped into with probably bigger size than normal, ended up making $8,000. Boom, quick recovery on that, and on the stock that I originally lost $1400 on, I took a red-to-green trade and made $3800 net, going from down 1400 to up 2300, finishing the day up a total of $10,400.

I really feel solid about that. It’s a great start to the month of June, and it’s really straight off the watch list. We are in a hot market right now. Last week was incredible, SOLY, ELTK, GNCA. Today, GNCA continued, and then ABIO and ATXI were the other ones. I mean, we’re in a hot market. It’s definitely a good time to dig deep, look for those A quality set-ups, and when they strike, I’m willing to be aggressive. So here’s to a great June. Hopefully, we continue to see this momentum, and I’ll see you guys as always first thing tomorrow morning, 9:15 for pre-market analysis. …

All right everyone, so we’re going to do our midday market recap here, go over the trades from this morning. This is going to be … Actually, I don’t even know how many consecutive green days I’ve had now, but in any case, I’m hitting my entire weekly goal in the first day of the new month, which is awesome. I mean it’s always great to get a month started really strong. We had two good opportunities today. I ended up taking a total of three trades. I had one loser and then two winners. My first trade out of the gates, I lost $1400 on. I went red. That’s why you can see here I got the alert that all trading is allowed as long as I don’t go below $2,000. I didn’t go below 2,000. I was down 1400 and then, off that low, I was able to turn around and finish up $10,000. So a really solid start to the month of June. A new month, same strategy, which is good.

The continuation from last week definitely is here. We had last week SOLY, ELTK, and GNCA. These were the three big stocks. I was able to make $10,000 on each of them, actually more than 10,000. Then today ATXI, we got a little bit of continuation or a little bit of a gap and go on it, but not to the extent of the three that we saw last week. So I would say today maybe is the first day that things are starting to slow down a little bit, but despite that, I was able to do well by being quick out of the gates and not overstaying my welcome. June is off to a great start. Of course, my monthly goal is $40,000, the same as every other month. $10,000 a week, four weeks in a month, so 40,000 bucks. I’m 25% of the way there in the first day, which is terrific. We’ll see what we can do.

Now during today’s recap, we’re going to do a couple of things. I’m going to talk about the trades on GNCA and ATXI. I’m also going to go over some of my metrics for the month of May. This is something that we do pretty much at the beginning of each month. We look back on the previous month and ask ourselves what worked, what didn’t work, what could we have done better? I’m going to do this, lead the way and encourage all of you guys to do the same with your own metrics. Whether you’re in the SIM or you’re trading with real money, it doesn’t matter. It’s important to have that review process.

To start, let’s look at the gap scan from this morning. All right, so I’ll put the gap scan right here. I’m going to reset this timeframe to 9:25 a.m.. I’m going to change, let’s see the date over here. This is going to be, by the way, my May, month of May. You can see here only one, two, three red days, but a couple of small green days, several small green days. A couple of bigger red days right there, there, volume, detailed net profit. I always go net, which is after commissions. It’s going to be right around $86,000. That was last month. All right, so we’ll get these in a little bit more detail. 74% accuracy.

Coming off a really strong month in May, that certainly made me feel good about being aggressive here in June, although I do have to be careful because I’ve also known to have… to start the month with a big red day, and the reason that sometimes happens is because, obviously, I want so badly to have a really good cushion to the start the month to get a really big green trade because then I’m right away in the driver’s seat. Last week, I was in the driver’s seat because I’d already had a really good stretch in the first three weeks of May. I just needed to finish up the month strong, and the wind was at my back.

Now, when you start a new month, we all start in the same exact spot. We start at zero. So as quickly as you can get yourself into the driver’s seat, the better you’ll feel about the month. Sometimes that has caused me to take a little too much risk on the first couple of days of a new month. I did take a little bit of risk today, but fortunately, it was the right time to do it, and it ended up paying off.

GNCA was our leading gapper this morning, up 95% just before the bell rang. It was actually up over a 100% pre-market as it squeezed to a high of 12.22; really powerful move. So the first thing I did was break down the daily chart. You can see all these lines on the daily chart. If we zoom in, you’ll see I drew this box here, and this was the low of this day back in… This is a while ago. This was back in September of 2017 when the stock was at $41. Overnight, the next day, it gaps down and sells off, dropping all the way down to $9 a share. It’s a biosciences stock. They had bad news. Stock drops 75% and continues to go lower.

Now, the reason these levels are significant is because as it’s starting to come up, these are areas where we may find resistance. I would say that 17 20, which is this high right here, that gives us room if we break that level all the way back to $41. There’s a lot of potential above 17 20. As we zoomed in a little bit closer, there were some levels in the November-December range down here that created small little points of resistance. Each one of them were worth noting because, as the stock squeezed up today, we would potentially be running into them. In fact, the one that we kind of struggled with was right here around 11:12. It was able to close over that level.

This was our daily chart that I marked out just before the market opened. So now let’s look at the five-minute chart. Actually, let’s look at the one-minute chart. In the five minute first, you can see this clear pivot at 11 42. If the stock had broken 11 42, almost without doubt, it would have gone to the pre-market high. At least to 12, and probably to 12 22, and continue maybe up towards 13. So 11.42 was a significant spot, a spot that had been tested once and twice. As soon as the bell rang, I was looking for the next test.

The bell rings, and I ended up being a little aggressive and jumping in at about 10 … Where did I get in? I got in at … Let’s see, the open was 10 85. Yeah, I got in for the break of 11, thinking that if it broke 11, it would probably squeeze right up to 11.25, being that this is a higher price stock. It’s more likely to move in half dollars and quarters, 25 cent, 50 cent kind of moves. I thought if it breaks 11, it should go to 11 25. If it breaks 11 25, it should break 11 42, which is breaking the pre-market pivot. From there, it should go to 11 50, 75 and then right up to $12. I jumped in a little aggressively for the break over $10.

I’ll admit that I was aggressive on it. I mean I thought that it was going to break … this $11 mark and really take off. Let’s see, where’s my order? These are my orders here. I was in at 11, 11, 11. I guess I added a little at 88 and 99. It dipped down for a second. I had 7,000 shares. That’s a pretty big position for me for a stock of this price range. It did not break 11 25, and then it flushed down here; and I bailed out. I got out, and I ended up taking a $1400 loss, just under $1500 in the red. I lost about 20 cents with 7,000 shares, and it drops down here. It drops down, and then right here, first one-minute candle to make a new high. That is what we call the red-to-green move. So as we got that first one-minute candle to make a new high, boom, I jumped right in. I just saw the potential there.

Let’s see, where was this? I got in ATXI. That one, I was in while it halted. Then this right here, I’m in at 42, 40, 43; so as it’s surging up right here. The first five-minute candle … or the first one-minute candle to make a new high was actually a 10 50, and I went ahead and jumped in a little early. Then I added at 10 88, expecting the break over 11. We hit 11. We didn’t break that level, and so I sold half and started unwinding the position. I then did another scalp trade right in this level right here under the high of 11 28. We ended up getting a move up to 11.28, which was nice.

I think I sold some shares up here in this area, but we didn’t hold that level, and then it dropped back down. I stopped out as it dropped back down, but again here with about a 7,000-share position from … Let’s see, what did I get? I was in there at 4500 shares in the 40s, and then I added 3,000 shares at 88, and then I was selling at 99 and selling more at 11. That right there not only got back the 1400 I lost, but gave me $2300 of net profit. That was a winner of, I guess $3,700 on this red-to-green move, the first one-minute candle to make a new high gave us a move from 10 50 all the way up to 11 28, almost 75 cents, which is awesome. That was good. I was disappointed, however, that it didn’t break over 11.42 and that it instead found resistance right at this level. Then since then, it’s been pretty much selling off.

That was GNCA. I had high hopes for it, but it did not give me the big move that I wanted, and so that was a little disappointing. Now on ATXI, this was the next one that I traded. This was also on our gap scanner, a little further down here gapping up about … Where was it? … Actually, it might have been on the gap scanner if I go like 9:15 a.m.. Yeah, it was on the gap scanner right here, up about 15%. It was halted pre-market, had a pre-market high of 750. There was news out pre-market, which is great. That’s what we look for with a gap and go trade, a catalyst. On this one, I was like interested in a retest of the pre-market highs.

Now, when you have a stock that has a very well defined period of selling off, it can be a little risky. As soon as the bell rang, I had this up because I thought that it had potential. I was also watching KBSF. I wasn’t watching this. I was also watching ATSI. I had a couple different stocks I was watching. When I saw ATXI all of a sudden squeeze up here. It opened at 550, squeezed through six, surges up. I see it breaking 650. I see that it’s getting close to getting halted. Boom, I jumped in. I jumped in and got a partial fill. I added at 71. It got halted at a high of 96. I’m holding through the halt. It comes out of the halt. I add 3,000 shares at 750 for the break of 750. First target is 775, $8. It hits a high of $8. Unfortunately, it retraces off that level. This made a really nice move. It not only broke the pre-market high of 750, which was our first target, it went all the way up to 798.

On that move, I was able to do pretty well because I jumped on it quickly. Now, the only reason I was able to jump on it quickly was because it was one of the four stocks I was watching this morning. We had ATXI, ATIS, GNCA, and KBSF. Those are the four I was watching. We had CTRV on as a maybe, but the volume was very light. I wasn’t really seriously interested in it, so I just sort of put it on a chart way over on the side, and figured I’d look over at it. But in terms of my level two windows, the way I had them set-up was just ATXI, GNCA, ATIS, and then … What was the other one? KBSF.

Yeah, so I had them set up kind of like that, which ended up being good. KBSF did pop up, but only for a second. It did hit the high of day momentum scanner, and then it turned around. I didn’t end up taking a trade on that, which was probably smart. So let’s see, so that was KBSF there. You see ATXI here as it was coming out of the hold. At that point, up 40%, surging up, relative volume, 89 times regular volume. Really taking off. Had it halted a second time at eight, it probably would have brought more traders into it, just because it happened so fast. Having that on the watch list this morning really helped.

I saw a lot of you guys did really well on it, which is great. I jumped on it pretty quickly. I did take a little bit more risk on this. I think I took more risk for two reasons. Number one, there’s sometimes that instinct which is hard to fight, which is when you take a loss. I was down $1400. The next thing that pops up, you jump in too quickly and with a little more size than you usually would. That’s kind of what I did. I jumped into ATXI, the second one on my watch list, pretty aggressively with probably bigger size than I would have if I hadn’t just taken a loss. Of course, if it had dropped right back down to 630, I would have been down $2,000 and max loss on the day. This would have been a red start to the month. But in this case, I think one of the benefits is years and experience in understanding which ones are worth being aggressive on. I’m not just jumping into anything that hits the scanner, which is something I would have done as a beginner trader. Anything that hits the scanner, I would just jump into.

I’m really mindful of which ones have news, which ones have good daily charts, which ones have a good reason to make a move today. Even if I am, at times, a little more aggressive than I should be, statistically, my accuracy is still going to hold up. If we look at the metrics from the month of May, we’ll see 74% accuracy. That’s after commissions. If I look at before commissions, the accuracy will probably be a little higher, 76%. That’s really solid accuracy. Out of 150 trades, I had a 112 winners. It looks like I had about two break even trades, or whatever; so that’s fine.

Really, really solid. Biggest winner, $11,100. Biggest loser, … $11,000. Biggest loser, 5900. A little bit of a bigger loss there on one day. I actually think I finished that day green. I was able to bounce back, which was good. I had a pretty big cushion. Average winner is a little over 1,000. Average loser was about 900. Average trade hold time, only four minutes. Trades like this are pretty quick, but trades like GNCA, this is a trade where within one minute, I made $3800. This was on this one minute candle right here. This one minute candle had about 600,000 shares of volume trading, massive volume; just boom, taking off there as traders jumped in for that red to green move. Yeah, so I jumped in and out of that with 7,000 shares, or something like that. In one minute, made $3800. That’s the potential of the market. If you are quick, you can do really, really well.

Yeah, so those are the metrics there in terms of profit to loss ratio, positive, accuracy, solid. Winning trades, short, losing trades, holding on to a little on the longer side. Interestingly, Tuesday is my worst day of the week for the month of May. Mondays were good, Wednesdays were good, Thursdays and Fridays were fine as well. So no real surprise there, but overall, a pretty solid month. Price and volume, we can look at this. Biggest winners this month were between five and $10. I guess stocks under five, I just didn’t do as well on this month. Under two, I actually lost money on. Between 10 and 20 I lost money on. Between 20 and 50, I made money on, and that was because of one of those stocks that … SOLY, that was really taking off.

Obviously making the most when I trade the most shares. That’s not a 20,000 share position. I never took 20,000 share positions, but it’s buying and selling, buying and selling. Performance by in trade price range, stocks moving more than dollar I made more money on. Well, that makes sense, because they were more volatile. But what’s interesting here is that the majority of my trades were on stocks that ended up not moving a lot. I took a lot of trades on stocks that didn’t move a lot, and then I had to get right back out. That means I basically got in, it didn’t do a lot, I got right back out. These are break even trades. The ones that I made the most money on, in terms of trade distribution, were only 22 of the 150 trades. A lot of these trades ended up being kind of like scratch trades. Profit, and it adds up, but the bulk of it was on the big movers.

Anyway, some kind of interesting stuff there, market behavior. I don’t know, probably nothing really to speak of here that’s that interesting. Win/loss expectation, accumulative P&L. Yup, so a little bit of draw down, red day here, red day here, but nothing too serious. This is the biggest draw down, $6700. That’s just over the course of the month of May. Instrument, we can switch to this. The stocks I did the best on in the month, BLIN, ABIO, ELTK, SOLY, GNCA, ATIS, CINF. These are all stocks that made really big moves. Stocks I lost the most on, NVAX, ONCS, PUII, ADXS, this one, a couple others.

Performance by instrument volume. This is interesting. The bulk of my profits in the month of May was on stocks that had more than five million shares of volume by the end of the day, between five million and 25 million shares is where I did the best. Those are stocks like SOLY, ELTK, that perhaps at the beginning of the day didn’t have a lot of volume, but they had a reason to make a move; and because of that reason, they continued to trade on high volume through the rest of the day because people continued to be interested in them, buying pull-backs, and things like that. BLIN, ATIS, CINF, those were ones earlier in the month. ELTK, SOLY, GNCA towards the end of the month.

That’s definitely what I like to see. I usually avoid the really light volume stocks, like a CTRV today. This has right now 187,000 shares of volume. Right now, it’s kind of in this spot. Those ones, they’re usually hard to trade. They don’t have a lot of volume. It’s hard to get in, hard to get out. More often than not, those ones give me losses just because the slippage is going to be really difficult to deal with. Over 25 million, those are usually stocks that are crazy high volume. Usually on the cheaper side, I usually don’t do as well on those, either. Bulk of the profits on stocks that gapped up more than 2%, but there are some profits on stocks that were not gappers. They just, in the middle of the morning, had breaking news.

Now, if we go back to January 1st, just do a review for the year sitting at just about $239,000. I’m tracking for the half million dollar mark, which is good. 71% accuracy over the course of the year. Average winners are actually a little lower. Biggest loss, 19,000. That’s disappointing that my biggest loser is bigger than my biggest winner. That was in March. I had a really big loss on this stock, ETSR. I lost 31 grand total on it. That was really pretty devastating at the time, but it is what it is. It’s part of the deal.

This is my year to date, and this is where I have this kind of really bad draw down right here. The biggest draw down that I’ve actually ever had in my career, but of course by now, it’s all water under the bridge. It doesn’t really matter anymore. I’m past it. I learned my lesson from it, and bounced back. Was down $47,000 versus my all time high earlier in the year. So from up $155,000 on the year, to up only $107,000 by the end of March. Then, from there, got focused, rebuilt the account, and back to now all time highs.

So now I’ve recovered about $140,000 … I’ve made about $140,000 off … or a 130 off those lows. I’m a really nice kind of hot streak here. I was on a pretty nice hot streak before things slowed down, but notice before the drop that things were sort of slowing down. If I get to points where things start to slow down a little bit, I’ve got recognize that signal, and take my … ease off the throttle a little bit, and even today, I was probably a little bit more aggressive than I might like to have been on a regular day. I got to be a little careful tomorrow, especially since today we haven’t seen continued momentum. GNCA is lower. ATXI did not hold up very well at all, which is really disappointing. The fact that we don’t have one that’s still strong as of like right now while I’m doing this recap is a good reason tomorrow to be a little bit more careful.

In fact, my best day of this week this year is on Fridays. Wild card Fridays just getting those surprise stocks that all of a sudden, out of nowhere, get me a big win. $70,000 on Fridays, Wednesdays only 23,000. It’s kind of unusual. Mondays, a little lower; but bulk of the profits between 9:30 and 10:00 a.m.. A little profit between 10 and 10:30, a little between 10:30 and 11:00. Or what is this? Between … yeah, no this is by hour. We’ll go down to 30 minutes. So actually between 10:30 and 11:00, I’ve lost money, 26,000. Yikes, so maybe after 10:30, I really should just call it a day. Stop right there. I mean, that’s what the statistics are telling me, right? That’s … I mean the profit past 10:30 has actually been net negative. Granted, it’s only by about 16,000 … $10,000, but still.

If I was working with a student, I would look at these types of metrics and say, ‘Well, wait a second. Why are you trading past this time of day? You’re doing really well right here, and this, you’re just giving back money.’ Some traders, if they continue to be red through the whole afternoon, I would just be like, ‘You got to stop that right here. Just test and see what happens if you stop each day at 10:30.’

This year, January I was good, February was good, March was bad. Worst month that I’ve had in years. April was good. May was good. Been an interesting year here with a little bit of challenge there right at that level, but was able to get through it. On the one million dollar challenge, starting with $583 January 1st, 2017, I’ve got $1,760,000. Just continuing to grow the account over the long term. Accuracy has been 68%. Profit loss ratio right around one to one. Average hold time about seven minutes. Average loser, 12 minutes. Biggest winner, 31,000. Biggest loser, still at 19,000.

This is over the long haul. Over the long haul, Wednesdays are actually my best day, which is funny that this year has not been the case. We’ll see. Fridays are creeping up here and becoming a real contender, but still lagging behind every other day of the week. This year has been a little unusual in the sense that Fridays have been better, Wednesdays have been poor. Win/loss expectation.

That’s my equity curve from way back here on day one making $125. So the first day of the challenge. It’s hard to even get the mouse on that day. There it is. That’s the first day. January 3rd, 2017. That’s where I finished the month of May. Yes, I did have my biggest draw down right here in March of the whole challenge, losing 47,000 before getting myself back up. Then crossing the million dollar mark. Those of you guys who haven’t been watching for that long, you’ll notice that I was just under a million dollars. I tried to swing for the fences and break the level, and I lost 30 grand.

I was getting myself a little emotional trying to get across that million dollar mark as quickly as I could. I wasn’t ready. I had to learn one final lesson before I could break over that level, but now I’m over it. I closed over it for the month of May, so the challenge is officially complete. I needed my May statement balance to be over a million dollars, and that is now done; which is awesome.

Anyways, that’s about it for me here today. I’ll be back at it, of course, first thing tomorrow morning around 9:00, 9:15, pre-market analysis. Hopefully we have some good stocks on the gap scanner, but I’ll be prepared to take it a little bit slower as we start the day tomorrow. I’ve now got a nice cushion on the month, on the week certainly. If things are a little slow, maybe that wouldn’t surprise me since GNCA is weaker today, and ATXI hasn’t held up well. I haven’t really seen any other momentum stocks really making big moves. ABIO, … well geez, guess I missed that one. From $6 up to almost $9. Yikes. That’s impressive. How much volume does it have? … One million shares of volume, so interesting. That was a nice opportunity.

Who knows. Maybe tomorrow will be pretty good. All right, anyways, I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning. Study up this afternoon. Let’s try to really make the most here in the month of June, and try to be aggressive when things are hot. All right, I’ll see you all in the morning. Bye guys.

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