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A Trading Week With No Losers? It Feels Good! | Roberto’s Weekly Trade Recap


All right guys. Welcome to the weekly recap. So here is Roberto Barbaro, and trading educator for Warrior Trade. So this week overall, it’s been a very good week. It’s been an incredible week, I had zero losers. I ended up taking an overall total of four trades. One was a scratch trade, this one on Spotify, and the other three were winners. So I actually had to split them up because I keep my tracking into a monthly different spreadsheet. So, as you guys may know this week has been half basically, Monday and Tuesday on April and the rest of course was beginning of May. So I ended up closing my April with a scratch trade. Overall had an overall accuracy of 65 percent, which is exactly in line with my goal and a profit/loss ratio with almost three to one for the month. I really look to have a two to one as a goal. So I exceeded my goal here, and I’m quite satisfied about that.

But with that being said, let’s talk about the trades one to one, and first I also want to give you an overall idea of how the month of May has been started. Of course so far I had a 100 percent, I have 100% accuracy because I only had three trades. All the three were winners, so far [inaudible 00:01:51] calculation for profit/loss ratio because I will need my first red trade in order to have this calculation done, but hey, I’m not going to complain about not having this one ready yet. I’ll keep on striving to have my accuracy as high as possible. Even though of course, I know that keeping 100 percent for the whole month would be quite impossible. This is a big motivation to keep on striving.

But that being said, it’s now time to jump into each one of the trades and talk about those a little bit more in detail. So the first trade I took was on Spotify. [inaudible 00:02:39] and here is the chart back to Monday, it was April 29th. Yes, it was April 29th, was last Monday and the stock was just reporting earnings. It wasn’t reporting earnings. It’s a relatively new IPO, so it doesn’t have much history. As you can see here on the bottom right corner, it’s a daily chart. You can see it doesn’t go any further back than last year in April. So we are barely on one year of history. But that’s also usually when I start taking into account the possibility of taking a trade domain, if it doesn’t have at least, at least a few months of history, I’m not going to get interested in a trade. I want to see … I really need to see a little bit of overall picture and also to know a little bit more how it trades, the overall range.

So for Spotify, it was actually a first time, and I haven’t had the opportunity to take a trade in the name prior to last Monday. So it is also quite an experience to trade a name. So let’s jump into a technical and see what I took into account while taking my trade, and how it did end up happening and unfolding for me. So, Spotify was here, was gaping up on earnings. As usual, when it’s gaping up … Let me zoom in my [inaudible 00:04:35] chart here. I always have two levels, main level I’m focusing on. One is the high of the pre-market, and the other one, it’s really not low, but it’s level of support that I can see from the pre-market chart. Here in the gray area, it’s the pre-market or extended session area. So I mark those two levels.

Actually I do have a custom indicator called [inaudible 00:05:11] session high low. That I called it myself. So on that day, I had the high of the pre-market already marked. I didn’t need to really go and draw it myself. But now of course since I’m watching back in time, I’m just [inaudible 00:05:28] those for you guys.

So with that being said, as soon as the market opens, I am potentially interested to take along above the pre-market high, as usual, I never take a trade on the first two minutes of the market open. I’m just … I just know by experience that for my strategy, I need a little bit more of a confirmation before I eventually jumping in. So I wait for the first two minutes to finish, and then eventually, I can get my trade started.

But I never want to have this indicator down here in the red, which means that the move is over extended against its 13 MA here on the tradings. So these orange line here of the 13 MA, the 13 exponential moving average. And whenever I’m in the red here, it means that we have more than two point 75% of divergence from the technical indicator from the 13 ma. And so at that point, I judge it to be a little bit too much over extended and just pass on it in and then wait for a better setup. That for me comes when I had retest of the level and in the confirmation of weakness down below.

So that’s actually what I ended up trading because the first move was overextended. Even though the two minutes opening range break down would have worked quite nicely. But there was also was said about this line here, this red line, which is a 20 MA coming from the [inaudible 00:07:15]. So, but what I noticed was that, there was definitely weakness on the move. And so I watched through this consolidation and here at 13670 here, is when I ended up taking my entry. So the 3670 here, 13670, it’s basically here at the low distribute candle. So when the next … So I waited for the retest when I noticed there was weakness and the next [inaudible 00:07:58] open, it pushed a little bit, started settling off. And that’s what I entered, I enter here at 13670.

And as soon as I enter, there was a nice drop in here. I was really looking for it, a list of retest, the previous low of the day and eventually to go even further down, further lower. But instead, we had this consolidation. We went close to give my first cover here, to hit my first target at 13570. But instead, it just went the other way. So went the other way, consolidate here, it actually had some volume, buying volume here. And so as soon as I notice this, I just hit the buy button to cover my position at breakeven. And usually that’s what I do when I get very close to my first cover and the move reverses [inaudible 00:08:58].

On me, I just rather prefer closing it breakeven and then eventually waiting for a next setup, then going … Waiting for it to go all the way back and stopping me out. So, even though it was a little bit out of the process, because usually what they say is, have your plan ready and then just let the plan work. Which would have meant in this case being … Getting stopped out, which I could anticipate and avoid because of what I just said. That’s what I usually do, is a deviation on the process I when I get very close to my first target.

So that’s what I actually also ended up writing down in my spreadsheet that I did not follow the plan, and the trade started collaborating right away. Then it didn’t follow through exactly when it was about to feel my first order, so my first profit order. So, I decided to stop out breakeven, when it went back against me. It was the right decision to make at that time. Even though of course, as you can see it from the chart, the move then happen later on. It actually made up quite a nice move down later on here on this crush, you can see it ended up hitting a couple. I mean, a couple of targets for sure.

But I wouldn’t feel … For sure I would have not felt confident into holding this push against me. That’s what I always say to students, you got to have a plan, you got to execute the plan. But when the trade plan is bad, and you have to have a clear idea of when that happens. You just stop out and move on, and potentially you can take a trade if it does set up again, but I would recommend not respecting your plan because otherwise you’re only going to mess up on your trading stats and also even though you may be lucky one day, you are reinforcing a bad habit. And so if a big, big red trade doesn’t happen that day, it will, it will happen someday. So you want to avoid that from happening. You want to be disciplined, you want to respect your plan and move on.

So I ended up stopping breakeven as I said. So first trade that also close my month because on Tuesday, I ended up taking no trades. There were no good opportunities here, at least for my trading strategy. So I ended up just wrapping up for the month and moved on to May. As I said in May, so far hundred percent accuracy. Of course, I’m not expecting to keep up with such a high percentage of accuracy. But it also means that, of course, if you get this kind of stats, maybe you’re doing something right. So that’s also good to receive that kind of confirmation from time to time.

But let’s jump into each one of those traits. First one on Twilio on the first of May, which was last Wednesday. Here. Let me just switch tab here on preview. So let’s talk about this one trade. It was a similar setup in terms of, it was on an earnings day, exactly such as Spotify was, and also ended being a nice, a very nice fade. A lot of the fade here, is the fact that I did miss the first move once again, and it’s been quite consistently happening lately. I keep on missing the first one move, but it come and it came with respecting the rules, but actually I ended up not taking this one trade, the first one move that would have been super, super amazing to actually take. Because we were … As you can see here, on this candle we’re still in the green.

So we’re not overextended, and we were doing this weak move. So we were below the pre-market support here and as soon as the second candle open, we had the retest and the 13 EMA and then we started sending off here. Here right here guys, it would have been amazing entry. It would have been a very good entry, that I ended up not taking because one, it happened very fast. So by the time I realized we were selling off, I just wasn’t fast enough to get field around this area, so I passed, I did not chase the move. And once again, I waited for the next setup to fall.

But a lot of other traders just following my own teaching and courses, that I have an intersession for pro students, I ended up banking. I ended up banking on this one move. So I was very, very happy to see that. But for me, having missed this one, I know I’m not going to chase into this. So I wait for the retest that happened over here. As you can see, we went very close to the 13 EMA, and this one was the candle for me to take. Now, I don’t know why, let’s see if we can. All right.

So, this one was the candle to take. So I ended up entering at 130 to 90, which was basically here as you can see, on the low of this three minutes candle. The risk was very, very, very contained, which I love. So I was listing about $1 per show, no more than that. Because of course, in case of this, not following through and coming back higher, I would have stopped out. But as you can see here, I ended up hitting my first target and my second target over here. So at 131 16, 130 69, by the time it hit my second target, I’m two total of position off, and then I ended up stopping it here on this retest, right before getting back to my entry point. I ended up locking up a decent profit on it, especially considering that I did not risk a single penny. And my max risk was really, really about a dollar per share. No more than that as we see here when the price was 130 to 90, my stock price would have been 133 90, so $1 per share.

So we ended up locking $1.60, $1.63 cents per share, which is a very nice profit/loss ratio, in this case risk reward ratio on the trade, and move on very happily to have initiated the month with a very nice clean trade as you may remember, on every layer I started the month with the three day red strike back, back to back. So it was not the best way to initiate the month. And instead for May, we initiated with a nice step forward.

So the second trade happened on the SQ square, was also on earnings. As you guys may know we are in the rainy season. And this is usually one of my favorite time of the year, because the opportunities are just there. We don’t have lack of opportunities. All we need to do is really to be focused and apply our own strategy and plan. So on SQ, we had, in this case a gap down and we jump in. And let me give you a look on the three minutes short. And to be honest with you, the pre-market pattern was not ideal, usually might prefer the one in that is drifting down pattern, the one that will see actually happened today on CTSH. But on SQ, I mean, I hadn’t watch because it was a former name that liked to do big moves. And also there was a bad [inaudible 00:18:40] which was earnings.

So all the way into the open, it was forming a weird, strong pattern. But right around 9am, we started to notice some selling. So I was interested on it because of that, but as usual, I want to wait at least to come closer to the extended session low, which is this line over here, and before initiating potentially significant trade. So I did not enter here in this mess. It was a really, really, really tough kind of price action going on. And then as I noticed we were holding below. I waited for the next formation here, the next flag, the format right here. Let me just draw it for you, this bear Flag. It was just right below the 15 EMA here on the three minutes and I ended up selling … Hitting the cell button here guys, at 70, sorry, 6785 was the .. My [inaudible 00:20:04] are a little bit lower here. I wanted to make sure we were actually … Yeah, want to make sure we … All right, we’re actually making a new low here and breaking this, this one flag, bear Flag and you can see here.

As soon as I enter, something really strange happened as I entered it and the move boom reverses on me. I can’t tell you how, but it was immediate. As soon as I enter it, boom, this thing reversed on me and I was really ready to take a loss right away, it happened so quickly. Because my idea for a stop loss was actually here, CC825. As soon as I enter 68, 6785, boom, this thing jumped all the way to 6840. But it was just for a second, so that’s why I don’t use hard stops. Because when those thing happens, may really, really get you frustrated because if you enter here hard stop. [inaudible 00:21:24] about basically on the top of this move, only to see the thing that give up and work in the direction you are planning for.

So as soon as I noticed this push, I would have gotten out if confirming above this 6840 period, but instead it started rejecting. Started rejecting nicely the next three minutes candle really at that point, it would have stopped out even above this AMA 6825. But it didn’t, instead of selling off and so I take off my first target here. And then it didn’t quite get to my second target, and instead it reverses on me. I ended up stopping out the rest basically, breakeven even a few cents higher. So in this case even though we had continuation, I really didn’t take as much of a winner as I could have. But I just ended up following a plan, so I wasn’t too concerned about it.

So the only thing that concerned me was this initial move. So after that, having taken a winner from the trade, I’m a green trade out of such a crazy move. It made me feel very good about the trade, even though it wasn’t the biggest green trade that I ever taken. I’m going to take a trade that gives me some money in the end after really, really made me thinking I was going to get stopped out. So this one was the trade on a skill, even these one actually had the best look on the 10 minute sort.

So let’s have a look just for you guys to actually know, because it’s good to know also that some other traders, and actually it’s part of the my teaching that I do on the the teaching that I do on the mentor session. As you can see here, the 13 EMA of the 10 minutes been respected basically all morning long. So all the way until 1PM, this thing just followed the 13 EMA of the 10 minutes very, very nicely. So every time you tasked it, it gets rejected and and they stopped selling off. Then you come back up here, this point, this very point here. You got even better. Let’s see if I can actually add … Okay, so here guys, you got even better at this point. Because we had a confluence, the [inaudible 00:24:29] and 13 EMA here both on the 10 minutes.

So this thing started to push and then it got rejected and boom, look at this rejection appear. I actually did not end up taking this one trade. But this just reinforces the fact that the opportunities the market gives are really, really countless, and for sure they are a good number of those every single day and multiple times a week. So even though I may be now having some good experience of this, that doesn’t mean I’m going to get every single one of the trades out there. And every single one of the good said about there, the good part is that having talked how to actually behave when you see the best looking setup, and is still giving a lot of opportunities to our members to profit, even when I’m not taking our position.

So that’s what we teach here, and we’re training not to be only watching other educators and mentors, and try to replicate what they do. We don’t encourage mirror trading at all. But this is all about learning, it’s all about you understanding and learning those skills that may help you taking even the trades that I did miss, because as soon as I got connected then I said, “I had a very, very good week.” But still, I’ve missed this one trade [inaudible 00:26:18], this beautiful trade. I missed this one good continuation on SQ. There were plenty of opportunities that all of our members ended up taking, and I’m so grateful that I had opportunities to teach. So I just wanted to let you know that really, really is not about copying or mirroring any other trader, but really is about your own way of interpreting the market in jumping on the trades that have the right setup for your strategy.

So let’s now jump into the last trade. The last trade is a month from today. We had a very, very nice trade on CT and sage. Also Mike our, our mentor on the Latin [inaudible 00:27:09] and ended up having amazing trade on the same name. So here’s what I saw, I notice on this. So as you can see here on the daily, we were really, really weak. We had a bad, bad earnings hitting last night, right before the market closed. And then we just had continuation. Let’s see what I’m talking about. Very nice continuation here on the excellent session hours. So look at this huge selling here volume, and then on these gray area, the extended session and the thrifty pattern I was talking about, which is really one of my favorite.

I was a little bit concerned about these area, made a little bit full of support. So we had the pre-market lows, we have this white line which is short sale registration price. Which means that when this price gets hit, we will not be allowed to shorting on the bid anymore, we’ll have to take our position short on an uptake. So whenever that happens, usually it changes a little bit the price section, at least for the short term. So I’m a little bit more cautious taking a trade right into that, when that switch happens.

And then we had this one, the 5947 [inaudible 00:28:39], as you can see here from the daily quite clear, this deep that we had of 5947. We’re very, very close to each other. So there were there was not a big, big window that we can play with for our three minutes openning range. So I just gave up on it and it was the right call because we had this strange price section right in the open. But as I told you before, I also use this one, the yellow candle, which is the same as here, that it’s basically the 13 EMA of the 10 minutes. So just to replicate the same on the three minutes. So we had this retest never, never reclaim hold above it. So it was a good sign. So our first possible entry could have been up here. When we had the first three minutes to make a new low back below the 13 EMA, the two minutes view up and 13 EMA on the 10 minutes. This would have been actually a very good entry.

Once again, a lot of other members ended up taking it and it would have been just beautiful. I hesitated because I noticed there was this big area of support right down here, that pre users just had been validated. So I don’t want to short into this, even though going to be honest, there was a room, at least to get to the first profit target before eventually being worried about this level being very strong. But I just ended up wanting to a little bit more confirmation. So instead of me then jumping short on this first initial move, I waited, I waited until we got this pretest.

So when we got this pretest here, that was my call, that was my call to start my short position. So I don’t just usually short into strength, and that’s what I actually end up not doing today as well. So instead of me waiting for next [inaudible 00:30:52] to make a new low. As soon as I noticed it was still big weakness, I ended up stopped my position here at 5920, and then I ended up covering here on these weakness. So I cover the first, actually a little bit lower here right. I ended up covering my first cover here and the 5860s then more at 5820s, and the last and the third target hit for my one third of position here, one third of my position of here, 160 of my position right here into the lows. I literally almost got the the lowest look at … Yeah, here is what my announcement like, out one six more and 5771, 5771 guys.

The announcement line shuttle was right here, look at this, the law of this candle 5770. So I almost really beat the exact bottom of my exit, which was a very a good move, than it didn’t give an opportunity actually to go all the way to my six to one profitable ratio as soon as it pushed back above the 13 EMA here on three minutes at 5855 and just took out the last six for my position. So I ended up getting up 72 cents average winner, which was great to see that I was risking no more than 40 cents for the trade.

So once again, a very, very good way to wrap up for the week and I just want to thank you guys for making … For having made and actually all the way to the end of this video. I hope you enjoyed the contents and I can’t wait for you to join the Warrior Trader family, if you are still hesitating and I see you guys next week in chat on.

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