Warrior Trading Blog

All Hot Streaks Must End -$10K | Ross’ Trade Recap

Red Day recap

What’s up, everyone? All right, so today, first Red Day recap in after, well, nine consecutive Green Days. An amazing hot streak. I think around $70,000 of total profit, maybe closer to $80,000. A really awesome hot streak and all hot streaks have to come to an end sooner or later. But today was such a frustrating end because on PRVB, up 300% on the day, I was actually up $8,000 on it.

And then I got too aggressive near the top. I gave back all that profit to trade number two. Down $11,000 on it. There was so much opportunity on the stock, so much money to be made and I missed the easy opportunities early on and I wasn’t as aggressive on them. And then I over compensated by being too aggressive at a high risk place near the top, which is sort of like… I don’t know, classic aggressive emotional trading.

And I don’t know why I was that way today, but boy, I gave back my whole morning of profit and I gave back everything I made on Friday. So for me, last Monday made $10,000. Today, I’m down $10,000. I’ve been trading big size, bigger numbers, whipping around here. And so I’m going to try to take this in stride. Not think about the fact that $10,000 would buy a used car and just think about, “You know what? It’s fine. It’s just one day, one step back.” I’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning and I’ll rebuild just like I always have and all things considered having had a $50,000 draw down in March, this is nothing I can get back. I can get through it and I will. So I’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning, 9:15, Free Market Analysis. And as always, any questions, any comments on the trades today, leave them below and I’ll see you guys first thing in the morning.

All right everyone. So we’re going to do our recap today. Today is a Red Day recap as you can see here. And Red Days happen from time to time. It’s my first Red Day of the month. But this is a particularly frustrating day because I was actually up almost $10,000 before I had a series of two red trades where I gave back all of the profit and then wend way into the red. So this was all on PRVB. It’s up 304% right now. I took a couple other trades on JAGX and ELTK, but these were both relatively small trades. This is a stock that made an incredible move this morning and despite that incredible move, I managed to lose money on it. It’s one of those things that, for me, is extremely frustrating. So this was not really on the watch list because by the time the bell was ringing the… Well, the flow is 25,000,000 shares, 24,600,000. so it’s got a higher flow as you can see here.

It’s got 12,000,000 shares of volume right now and pre-market it was fairly crowded on volume. So pretty market, the price was $11.25 with 1,000,000 shares of volume and I felt like, “You know what? Being above $10 being a 25,000,000 share float, I don’t think this is the type that I should be aggressive on trying to do a scalp trade on.” And so I really wasn’t interested. I recognize that it had a trigger here at $11.98 and so that was the spot that I was watching. And the pre-market high was a $12.90. So this level here and this level here were the two levels on watch. But I really didn’t think a whole lot of it until I saw the two is halted right here on a circuit breaker. And I was like, “Wow, okay.”

“It’s halted at $11.68. impressive. Let’s, let’s kind of watch this coming out of a halt.” And so as it came out of the halt, I started with a small size trade, buying it, actually, at $12.43. my first entry was $12.43 it popped up to a high of $12.70 and then dropped all the way to $11.75. on that trade, I ended up making like $400, a small kind of… small scalp, nothing big. And I was just like, “Okay, that that was interesting.” A little choppy there and then it squeezes back up to $12.50. I get back in, I then scalp this break right here, and let me just find my order for that break. This one was… Let’s see. There we go. This was sort of the biggest trade I took on it.

I took 9,000 shares right up here at $12.86 and it immediately broke 9,000 shares and immediately broke. And I’m selling at $13.05, $13.19, $13.34, $13.39. And just like that, in this one little trade, I was up $4,500 on the day. That was a really solid trade and then it kept going and it kept going and kept going as you can see. And so on this one, I added back. I did okay. I got myself up about $8,500 on it. And then where things took a turn… let’s see, that’s it right here. So this was $10.10 and 23 seconds. Let’s see. Actually, this is where things took a turn. Yeah. So I was… I sold from my 15 and I added back here at $10.23. so this was… Where was this? Sorry, $19.23. So that was on this [inaudible 00:05:58] right here. I thought that what we were seeing was just obviously clear, parabolic move.

And now this, with no resistance, have room to go to $20 maybe $25 and so I took a starter here, $19.23 and then I added, with my hotkey… See, I was getting partial fills and sometimes when I get partial fills, I get frustrated and I’m like, “Dang it, I’m trying to get in this thing,” getting partial fills. And so I just press shift one and shift one is now a hotkey, not for 1500 shares but for 3000, and then I added at $23 and $26 and that was right up here. It hit a high of $19.65 and then it flushed down to $17.50 and just like that, I stopped out at $18.10 and $17.74 and with 6,000 shares, lost $7,000. I just gave back my entire $8,500 of profit and I was basically a break even on the trade.

I was just like, “Whoa, okay. That was crazy.” I’m frustrated and then it rips back up here. It breaks $19.30 and hits $19.90 and as it ripped back up, I was like, “Wow, okay.” It faked me out, but I bet it also faked out a lot of short sellers. I’m getting back in. I’m getting back in because I think it’s going to break over the high, halt going up and we’re going to see that move to $20 so I got back in at basically the same price. It hits a high of $19.90 or… Yeah, $19.90, but I didn’t sell it cause I was now going for $20 and a circuit breaker halt.

And I stop out of that at $18 and $17.50 and just like that, I lost $11,000. So I went from being up $8,000 a down $11,000. That’s $19,000 reverse from the high a day to the low a day for my P and L on this stock. And I’m so disappointed. I’m so frustrated. I watched it through here. I flipped over to my IRA account and prepared an order here to get in at $19.15 and I was like, “You know what, Ross? You’re already down $10,000 on the day and you were confident on this setup and you were confident on this set up, confident enough to take the trades. I’m confident here. What if I’m wrong? What if I’m wrong a third time? And this thing just dropped to $17. What if I get in right here at $19.50 and drops a $17 and I lose another $5,000? I’ve got to stop somewhere.”

Well to my frustration, it breaks $19.15 and squeezes up to $20.07, then hit a high of $21.15. Squeezes all the way up here to $22.82 so it makes that move without me and I’m just holding my hands, feeling super frustrated that I’m the guy who somehow managed to make nearly $10,000 on it, give it all back, go down $11,000, and then watch the stock go all the way to $22.82. So this speaks to two primary issues. The first issue was that instead of reducing share size as it went higher, I in fact increased share size all the way up to 7,000 and 8,000 share positions at the high. Now 7,000 and 8,000 share positions down here, when it was at $12 and $13. Okay. Getting myself up to 5,000 on the day. 6,000. Okay. That was fine.

That was aggressive. But then it’s time to scale back, especially after this type of parabolic move. And I was overconfident. I used too much share size and I gave back all that profit and then that was 100% my own fault. I was too aggressive. Was this a day to be aggressive? Well, considering since my last Red Day, I’ve made almost $80,000, I guess this was a good enough day to be aggressive as any. I’ve had a really great hot streak. I made $30,000 last week and almost $10,000 just on Friday, being aggressive. Being aggressive is how I made that much money in the last 10 days. So I think that I just should have been mindful that at this point right here, I was taking a big position of a nearly $20 stock and historically this is where I’ve had some really big losses in the past.

NETE was one of them. I can remember that was a $15,000 loss. I don’t know, 6,000 share position, losing $2.50 a share and that was on this stock. If I go back here a ways, we had this day… This was back even further than this. It was right in here where it squeezed up to 20. Next day it goes up to a high of $33. It was incredible. But the problem with stocks in this price range is that when they go the wrong way and they whip down, they can whip $2 against you and you can not hold as an active, as an aggressive day trader, scalping breakouts. You cannot hold down $2 and $3 a share. You just… I simply can’t. I don’t size to allow $2 to $3 a share of risk. But that’s kind of what you need to allow for with this type of stock because the reality is here, it went from $19.90 down to a low of $17 and it was still bullish.

So it had a three point draw down and then ripped back up. But I couldn’t afford the $3 per share draw down with 9,000 shares. That’s $27,000 so I took the loss and then it rips back up and that’s just part of the deal and you can always get back in. But I kind of undercapitalized on the first part at the move. Being cautious, I then over compensated for it by being too aggressive near the top and that’s sort of that very typical emotional type of trading. You feel frustrated that you didn’t do as well on it in the early part of the move because you missed the good entry, you didn’t chase it, it then went anyways and then you buy it high, thinking, “Well, if it went that time it’d probably go this time.” And you take bigger size to try to make up for what you missed and then that’s the time where it fails and you get a slap for breaking the rules.

And that’s… I don’t know that I was really on this set up here. I think I genuinely thought it was going to go parabolic to $20 and I just wanted to ride the momentum and I initially was trying to take smaller share size, 1500 shares here. And granted, I was pressing the “Buy” button three times but I was being mindful and then I was frustrated. I didn’t get filled and in that place, I was willing to go ahead and chase it. And then once I was in, I was in and committed to it and it ended up being the wrong call and adding was a mistake for sure. So yeah, I screwed this one up and it’s a good lesson and fortunately, it doesn’t do anything other than give back about one day of profit, which is good. One day in this current hot streak that we’re in. But I could have done without it for sure.

And I’d be much, much happier if I had been up on it, just period, up $5,000 or $8,000 or more. That would have been much, much better. But I needed, I guess, a little bit of a reminder to follow the rules and this is a tough stock because you got away with chasing it all the way up to about here and then this is where chasing starts to give you some important lessons. You would’ve gotten stopped out there as I did. Stopped out again here, dropped down here, squeezes up and gets halted but then opens from the halt and drops down to 19 which rejects that level. Then rips back up, does a false halt at $22.82, and then drops all the way down and then from here, it’s just been stair stepping, for the most part, lower. So, no doubt this is not going to be a day that I look back on in December and I’m like, “Boy that was… I won’t… ” Who knows?

But I don’t think this will be a day that I look back on as like, “Oh man, that was just the worst day of the year.” This was a sloppy day where I was throwing around some big share size. I got myself up quite a bit, got aggressive, gave it back and I’ll end today down $10,000, which will neither be my best day of the year, nor my worst day of the year. It’s just a kind of disappointing day that I’ll bounce back from, probably in no time at all. So last Monday, I made $10,000. This Monday, on the 108th day of the year, I’m losing $10,000. I’ll put the note on my calendar here, “PRVB, plus 8K and then minus 18K, over traded. Sad face.” It is what it is. I’ll be back at it, of course, tomorrow as usual. And I’m… All things considered, today could have been certainly a lot worse.

It could’ve been a lot worse if I had gotten back in way up here and then lost again. And this is a day where a more emotional trader or a more emotional version of myself could easily lose $15,000, $20,000 or $30,000. The stock certainly has the volatility to give you that type of loss with the account size that I have. And so I’m glad, at the least, that I was able to say, “Okay, you know what? I’m at my max loss. I can switch over to this account, but I’m not going to keep trading. I could, but I’m going to choose not to.” So that’s a victory. And sometimes small victories are the best that you can get on a day like today. But take it and learn a lesson from it and live to trade another day. So that’ll be a live to trade another day. It’s not a $100,000 loss.

It’s not something I am going to spend months trying to recover from. It’s just more frustrating than anything else because I was just too aggressive. And that was… That by itself was just frustrating and that emotion of frustration is going to linger for a little bit. But that’s okay. So anyways, that’s it for me. I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning. Hopefully we have some other good opportunities and we can trade them in a way that’s a little bit more dialed in. All right, I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning.

If you’re still watching. You must’ve really enjoyed that video, so why not subscribe and get email alerts any time I upload new content? Remember when you subscribe, you become a member of the Warrior Trading family.