Warrior Trading Blog

Closing Up The First Half of 2019 Strong & GREEN! | Roberto’s Weekly Recap


What’s up guys? Roberto here. Today, we’re going to talk about my trades from the week. This is kind of a special week because it coincides also with the end of June, which means we have closed the first half of 2019. If you haven’t done so already, I would suggest you to go ahead and review your trades from this first six months of the year so that you can potentially learn something beneficial going into the next six months. With that being said, let’s jump over our shoulder and analyze together the trades I took.

All right guys. Let’s analyze my trades from the week. This week, I ended up taking an overall total of six trades as I was telling you in the introduction. But, before going there, let’s analyze a little quick my overall stats from the month. This month I had [inaudible 00:01:27] which was lower than what I usually strive for. I have a goal of 60% accuracy, and I fell short of that goal by 5%, ending up with a 54.55% accuracy. But on the bright side, I really really thrilled when it comes to profit loss ratio because I had a profit loss ratio of almost five to one, which is one of the highest on record for me. That’s a little bit of the deal here. Whenever you have kind of a little bit of a lower accuracy, you want to compensate with a higher profit loss ratio and of course also quite the opposite. When you have a little bit of a lower profit loss ratio, you want to compensate with a higher level of accuracy so that if you maintain your risk per trade balance, you are going to have consistent profitability which is the ultimate goal.

With that being said, let’s analyze those trades together. The first trade I took, I took on ABBV. ABBV has been my first trade of the week. I want to analyze this for you with a chart. I do a quick … If you’re not familiar with my charting platform, this trading view, you can find the trading view link in the description down below. If you decide to subscribe through any of the package through going to that link, then feel free to send me an email. I will be happy to send you my own custom layout which includes seven of my custom built and coded technical indicators that I use and I explain to every [inaudible 00:03:44] member in the community.

With that being said, let’s jump in and analyze the trades that I took. The first one was ABBV. As I said, here as you can see here on the chart on the left you have the three meals chart. On the right you have the ten minutes chart. On top and a data chart on the bottom. You can notice how good and how well defined these … I know this both in the three minutes and in the 10 minutes how well defined this triangle actually, bearish triangle, was during pre-market. Was a very nice triangle that it was consolidating the lower side of this first flush over here. It flushed at first all the way to 70. There it bounced all the way to 13 EMA here on the 10 minutes. This yellow line is basically the 13 EMA in 10 minutes plotted on the three minutes.

Then you can also notice here you have the 13 EMA, this on its line the 13 Spanish moving average on the three minutes and the view up. Here, what I did like was definitely the fact that we had a strong catalyst, the fact that I had a very nice looking pre-market button, but what I did not like was the fact that here as you can see this circles here on the bottom with the volume indicates the cumulative volume. In the specific case, of course, in the case that the pre-market cumulative volume which was really, really, really high. I typically have a threshold of 1.5 million so if I have more than 1.5 million choice rated during pre-market, I am a little bit more hesitant about taking a trade right away after the market bell rings because typically you would fight by yourself in a situation where the stock price is simply too much overcrowded.

That typically creates also kind of overall choppiness and so instead of trading well in one direction, it would just go up and down with a limited range. Since we are looking for volatility and for a nice and strong trend, we want to stay away from those situations. But in this case, ABBV because it have a very, very nice strong catalyst and it had also very nice pre-market formation, he ended up giving it nicely on the three minutes opening range breakdown which is one of my go-to strategies. If you follow a little bit of my style, you will know that it is definitely among my favorite strategies to trade.

The first three minutes kind of print here and it’s just looking great because it went down and it basically showed as much weakness as you could possibly see. Look how solid this candle actually looks like. Now the next candle opens, but I’m hesitant because of this inter-day volume, this pre-market volume that was very, very high. I missed this trade. It would have been an amazing trade to take to start the week off of, but I ended up not taking it even though as you can see it went all the way from 6928 all the way to 6656, like 10 minutes later, and so of course I was a little bit kind of concerned. I was a little bit disappointed by that miss because I was questioning myself, why didn’t I jump in? Of course I had this kind of red flag right before the market opened, very clear in my mind, so I went ahead and possibly see if I could take any other trade. I ended up taking two trades in the same name and paying basically chopped out. I [inaudible 00:09:02] even in the first one and I lost 80 bucks on the second one.

The first one a little quick was a three minutes continuation trade. I took it as 6704 with a stop right at 6730s and I had the first target at 6665. I took it basically here where you see my risk reward ratio drawing here. As soon as I jumped in here, this thing just started to sell off. It started to sell off and i had my first target down here where this green line is. Instead of kind of continuing down, it went right before the candle closed. It got bought back up right there and at that point since we failed to have continuation, what you typically see after this kind of candle is a higher risk of the move reversing sharply against the trend. I don’t want that to happen, to stop out at that point anymore, and so I went ahead and I took my position of break even which of course in hindsight was not the best decision to take because even just following my original plan, in terms of my stop in this 6730 area, I would have never never gotten stopped out and so at that point of course I was out of the trade and did not reenter for this nice move back down.

Instead I waited for a 10 minutes move. I waited for 10 minutes set up and I ended up taking this one trade at 11:00 AM which was kind of the first 10 minutes to make a new low after this consolidation, but it was way, way, way too much distance here from both the view up and the 13 EMA on the 10 minutes. In hindsight, I should have never ever taken this trade, but hey we’re all humans. I missed kind of the first trade here and then I tried it here. I stopped out breakeven only to see the trade working a little bit later on and so I kind of felt the urge of taking another trade here so I went ahead and got short and then as soon as this thing failed to have continuation I stopped out right here. I didn’t wait actually to get stopped out with a crazy or even the [inaudible 00:12:11] loss. I went ahead and stopped out quickly and that at least was the right decision to take. In fact, that’s what I wrote here in my corrective action note area. 10 minutes to type stop wasn’t quite right when I took the trade at that 11:00 AM candle since the 13 EMA was too far away. This one trade should have never taken place.

On the bright side, I did not get stubborn and stopped out the trade with a small loss. I ended up entering the 6681. I had initial loss of 6720 but I ended up stopping out with just a 10 cents loss which wasn’t too bad at least. With that not very good beginning of the week, we went into Wednesday where I had definitely my best trade of the week and one of my best trades of the month on GIS.

Basically I was mindful that this time of the year, we have to be a little bit quicker than usual. Trends are typically not as strong as they are like outside of the summer months especially during the other earning season. They tend to last longer so we can maneuver into the trade having a little bit more time to think and to take those profits a little bit in a more kind of slower pace I would say. With GIS instead, I had the opportunity actually to take a trade which basically went my way for a couple of targets basically right away.

Let’s talk about that a little quick. GIS was coming down on earnings and the overall look was not too bad for a continuation breakdown, especially when this purple line you can see here which is the 100 simple moving average on the daily, if that would have taken out of course we would have had possibility for a decent continuation on the same direction especially considering this very nice consolidation here during pre-market. Pre-market was consolidating with a cup lower right above this purple line which is the same line you see here plotted into the today chart.

As soon as the market opened, I was eventually ready to take my go-to strategy that just missed the previous day, which is the three minutes opening range breakdown. As you can see here, the first candle printed at 9:30 in the three minutes, and I ended up just going in here on the second candle. Second candle here, it opens, it pushes a little bit up and then boom it just went down. It went down below. It went down right below the pre-market lows and also the three minutes opening range low and the slum. I took kind of a brave entry right above that 100 SMA but as usual, I take these kinds of lines here, not really kind of valid to the penny but more kind of an areas of support or resistance. Since it was really kind of holding above it for long and getting weaker and weaker, I felt confident here of taking this breakdown because whenever those kind of crack happens, they tend to be happening in a dramatic way. That will happen. I ended up taking my short here, the 5006, and pretty much right away in the first three minutes I hit my first and second target which is quite unusual but it’s always good to see.

I ended up taking my first profit actually was a little bit lower here, 4930s area, and then the second one here at a 4890s area. After that, we had a kind of a re-test and this thing started to continue to work lower and lower, but as soon as it cracked below the previous lows, instead of accelerating kind of the selling, it got bought right back up. As soon as we went, I had above the 13 EMA here on the three minutes in the view up. I stopped out. I stopped out but it was a very nice stop out, still well in the green, and so we were able to lock up a nice win there and we had an overall win of almost a point. For a $50 stock, having an overall win of almost one point, an average win of almost one point, it’s not too bad. It’s about 2% of the move, really not too bad.

Then I ended up taking trades on Thursday and very quickly we can talk about the three trades that I took this Friday. This Friday I really went into the market knowing that next week would be particularly slow because of the Fourth of July celebration and the beginning of July not too many earnings also expected to be announced. I wanted to see if the market could give a little bit more of an opportunity and so they can squeeze something out of it. I ended up taking three trades, [inaudible 00:19:21] that was an earning, kind of an earnings play, and then we had a trade on MU.

First of all, let’s talk about this [inaudible 00:19:37] trade. Ended up taking here today. It was an earnings play and I ended up taking first the three minutes opening range breakdown here and so let’s give you a little bit more context. This one trade was cupping higher because it had good earnings and whenever that happens I kind of give it a look at the daily but I know I’m going to be open to be eventually taking the trade to the long side for continuation or for the short side eventually if the sides do fade.

How do I do that? I typically tend to give importance to the level of support and resistance that are coming from pre-market. I was able really to spot one here at around 250 here as you can see. It held. You can also see here on the 10 minutes, after first push ended up holding above and then it went ahead during pre-market at about 205 and ended up rejecting. Right before the market opened, we had this flush. We had this big flush back below the 13 EMA and after the market opened we had the first three minutes. It started to push a retest here, the 13 EMAs, and the view up. During the second three minutes, we had the flush. We had the flush here, and so I entered it when this thing right when this thing cracked at 19790. Basically here. I had my stop basically back at here, the 13 EMA, and the view up.

Knowing that we are in the market, in the summer month, and we typically have this move back down and then we typically struggle to see continuation, instead of me kind of taking profit a little bit earlier than what I would typically do, I waited. I waited to see if the move could get to my first target here at with this-