Warrior Trading Blog

Clustered Red Days -$4.7K | Ross’ Trade Recap

Ross_6.18

Hey, everyone. All right, well, here we are. Second red day recap in a row. A little disappointing to have a couple of red days back to back, but that’s the way it typically is. Red days get clustered together and certainly the green days get clustered together. When we’re on a hot streak and I’m being aggressive, I’ll have back to back five, 10, $15,000 days. In fact, the two best days that I’ve ever had trading, they were back to back. I made I think it was $33,000 on it was like Wednesday and on Thursday I made 40 grand. So Wednesday I was like, “Wow, this is the best day I’ve ever had.” Then I topped it the very next day. Last year, I had something similar, had like a $29,000 day, second day, next, very next day, another $29,000 day. The winners, almost always together. FOMO in the market, momentum in the market. It just sort of it all gets clustered.

So as we have that peak of momentum, well, then we’ve got the bell curve and it comes on the downside. Right now the last two days have definitely been on the downside. Had several trades where jumped in looking for momentum, didn’t get it, stopped out. I’m disappointed to have two red days in a row. I was being a little aggressive today on a setup that I thought looked really solid and it just failed almost instantly. So got myself into the red. Switched to my IRA account, tried to dig my way out, wasn’t able to do it. So this is a day where I’m not going to fight the momentum, which clearly is not to the long side. It’s the short side. So I’m going to step back, readjust, be back at first thing tomorrow.

Now reminder guys, this coming Thursday, 1:00 PM Eastern, I’m going to host a free workshop where going to break down my strategy. I’m going to talk about why I really don’t get emotional when I have red days because I’ve got faith in the strategy. I’ve been trading it at this point for so long that I know red days are inevitable. I know even red months will happen and it doesn’t really matter. It’s all about averages over the long haul and that really sort of helps separate the emotions that can come with, “Oh man, I just lost $5,000,” or the big emotional spikes or peaks of, “Wow, I just made 15,000.” Just all kinds of gets leveled out and this becomes your career and one that for me is helping me make, well, half a million dollars last year.

So it’s all about the averages. There’ll be green days, red days, slow and steady, stick with the strategy. So if you want to learn a little bit more about my strategy, click below to register this coming Thursday, 1:00 PM Eastern. I look forward to seeing you there and enjoy the recap. As always, questions, comments, leave them below. I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning.

All right everyone. So I’m going to finish today, this is going to be second day, second red day in a row, second red day recap of the week, third red day of the month, which is actually right on par with this being the third week of the month. It’s just often times red days get clustered together. Green days get clustered together as we have a hot streak. Then when things slow down, you get a couple of red days. So today is a day where I started my very first trade right out of the gates on KOOL, K-O-O-L, right off the gaps scanner in my main account and boom, hit my max loss within the first two minutes.

So on this one, this was our gap and go set up, break of the pre-market pivot, which was 3.98. I jumped in at 3.98. I took 12,000 shares for the break there, anticipating a break over 4.19 which was the high of this candle right back here. Then looking for a move up towards 4.50. We didn’t get that move. It hit a high of 4.11 and yeah, I was up 10 cents. It then drops down to 3.71. I’m still holding. I gave it a second for the first one-minute candle to make a new high, but then it broke 3.70 and I had to sell. I was willing to hold right through this area for that first candle to make a new high and then be able to maybe get out break even or even for a small profit on a red to green set up.

But as it flushed the low of the first one-minute candle, I had to stop out. So I stopped out with some slippage. Got filled at 3.62 and 3.51 and 52 which is sort of a bummer, but that’s just the way it goes sometimes. Again, it’s one of those things, it starts to become less personal or less kind of emotional when you’re just like, well, I just trade the same strategy pretty much every day and some days are green and some days are red and some days are huge winners and some days are big losses. But at the end, it all averages out.

So yeah, and today’s one of those days where I’m on the wrong side of the trades, but and obviously it’s a setback. I’m down like 4,600 on the day so it puts me back down to about 40,000 on the month. I was up 50,000 on the month coming into Monday and I lost five grand and then another five grand today. Yeah, I’ve got to be a little careful now because I’ve had two red days in a row. I went from having a $10,000 profit cushion on the month, $40,000 it’s being my minimum goal. So that’s great. Got my goal. Then I was trying to maybe double my goal and using that 10,000 is a little bit of putting it on the line for the potential to turn it into 30 or 40,000 and be up 80,000 on the month.

But pretty quickly I just had two red days in a row. So now I’ve got to be a little careful that I don’t stair step down one step. Okay, 5,000, second step. Okay, well what happens tomorrow? I don’t want to have a third step down or a really big step down. So it’s time for me to base out a little bit. That means maybe a small green day, maybe a small red day. Now small green or small red would be the result of smaller share size. So going into tomorrow, I got to bring the share size back down. After your second red day in a row, you got to bring it back down. So I’m going to bring it down to 9,000 shares. Might even go a little smaller than that tomorrow. I’ll see how I feel, but definitely not going to go 12 or 15,000 shares tomorrow.

I’m going to bring down the share size a little bit. If tomorrow I can make $1,000 that’s great. If I lose a thousand, that’s manageable. I just don’t want to continue to have $4,000 red days and oops and that’s what’s going to happen if I keep taking 12,000 share positions of these types of stocks that don’t work. So, but again, really not … This one doesn’t bother me that much. Same with CTRV yesterday, certainly disappointing but not that bothersome.

What got me really frustrated was the trade last week. Which one was it? It was PRVB last week. That one made me pretty frustrated because I was too conservative on it at the beginning of the move. Then I compensated by being way too aggressive towards the top of the move and went from being up $8,000 to giving back all of my profit and going into the red. That’s always worse than just dropping into the red. If you just go into the red, it’s like, “Well, I was never green. I just had this one wrong.” But when you’re up $8,000 and then you give it all back, that’s pretty disappointing. So those days can tend to get me a little bit more emotional.

Whereas days like CTRV yesterday, disappointing, frustrating a little bit. But eh, just part of the deal. Sometimes these work, sometimes they don’t work. Very similar setup to what worked on JAGX and gave me a $10,000 winner. Similar setup to what gave me a $10,000 winner on this same stock last week and today it just didn’t work. Cool. Same type of thing. Breaking pre-market pivot.

So we’re in a little bit of a pattern here at least the last two days where the leading obvious gapper has popped up and faded pretty hard. MGI also faded pretty hard and of course note that although MGI is a shortable and that’s nice for those that may have been able to see that setup, a stock like KOOL … Actually that’s interesting. KOOL is easy to borrow at Lightspeed. That’s kind of surprising. Well, I don’t know. Maybe that contributes to why it it dropped. Usually these ones are a little harder to borrow but I guess you could have traded both these to the short side.

So in any case, was just on the wrong side of these two today and now that we’ve got this little kind of pattern where we’ve had a couple leading gappers fade, I’m going to be careful tomorrow about trying to trade a gap and go stock. The nice thing about the gap and go strategy is that when it works, you’ve got a profit cushion in the first five minutes of the day. But when it doesn’t work, you start the day in the hole basically. That’s what happened the last two days. So rather than risk that happening again tomorrow, I may say tomorrow that I won’t take any trades until, I don’t know, 9:40 or something like that, 9:45. Maybe wait for a red to green setup, let things consolidate, let the dust settle a little bit and then see what happens.

Now, if I had done that today, obviously wouldn’t have traded KOOL at all. CIFS, this was a small winner off the high of day Momo scanner. Basically hits the scanner, starts squeezing up, looked like it was going to get halted at 89. Jumped in. It did not halt. The halt level moved up to 2.07 or something like that. Hit a high of 93 and then came back down. As soon as it could not break over $2, I was like, “Oh, oh. Not good.” Got out of the way on that. So a little profit there.

SOLY, five-minute set up here in the morning from 17.80 up to a high of 18.25 with smaller share size but didn’t really hold or go parabolic. CTRV I lost on again today. Jumping in on a one-minute micro pullback right here. So first one minute candle to make a new high, failed. Could not retest the high of day and I stopped out. So I think today’s one of those days where if you keep trading, you’re going to get more and more frustrated if you’re trading to the long side. If you’re trading at short side, I don’t know, maybe there’ll be more opportunities, but I think generally things are going to kind of base out and go sideways. You’re not going to have a lot of parabolic opportunities to the upside. I don’t see that being likely at all.

I think that anything that does pop up will probably get knocked down pretty quickly by short sellers who have a little profit cushion from a couple of good trades on KOOL, MGI and maybe a few others. So today’s a day in my opinion just to throw in the towel, not try to fight against this trend. It’s like swimming against the current, swimming against the tide. If the momentum is not there, it’s not there. You’re just gonna wear yourself out, get yourself frustrated. It’s like, I mean, literally swimming against the current of a river. You’re swimming and you’re looking on the side and you’re actually still going down stream. So you’re trading, you’re trading, you’re trading, but you’re losing money. So why fight it? Turn around. Go the other direction, go short or just step out of the water, take a break and wait for the current and the tides to change.

I think that for me is my approach, especially since I’m already down. Red in my main account by a decent amount. Red in the IRA. Whatever, this doesn’t matter. It’s 150 bucks. But there’s just no point in continuing today. So I’m going to step back. I’m up 40 grand on the month. I’ve hit my monthly goal for the month of June. I’m happy with that. I could walk away today and not trade for the rest of the month and I’ll look back at June in December and be like, “Yeah, June was a good month. I was up 40 grand.” On the other hand, I can keep trading and try to build up a little bit more. Wait for good quality setups. Be selective and by focusing on good quality setups and taking profit at the right time, I’ll probably be able to get myself up to 50,000, maybe 60,000 on the month.

We’ve still got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight days left in the month. I average 2,000 a day, it’s 2,500. So there’s no reason I can’t make another $20,000 this month. But today is not the day that it’s going to happen. It’s probably tomorrow going to be a little bit of a day of rest and who knows, maybe things will pick up. Wildcard Friday, we’ll see something really hot and I’ll start next week on a good note. But this is the way the market is, it’s cyclical. We got hot cycles and cold cycles. So a little cold right now. That’s okay. I’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning. All right you guys, I’ll see you all first thing in the morning.

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