Warrior Trading Blog

Ending The Month on a Red Day -$1,400 | Ross’ Trade Recap


What’s up, everyone? All right, so, here we are Red Day recap. Finishing the month with a small Red Day down $1400. You know, as I was driving into work this morning, I was telling myself, “There’s a really good chance you’re going to have a Red Day.” I don’t think I was setting the intention I was going to have a Red Day, I was trying to warm myself, to go easy, go slow.

Because yesterday was a small Green Day, the smallest Green Day I’ve had in a couple of weeks, and sometimes I noticed that as my Green Day’s get really small, it’s an indicator that the market is a little choppy. We’re not seeing really good follow-through and momentum names, it’s a good time to slow down. So I trade with smaller share size today. Despite that, I still finished in the Red, and of course on the one hand, you could say, “Maybe I shouldn’t trade today at all, being Red, well, it would have been better to break even.”

But the couple set ups that I traded, I actually thought were decent. I thought they were good opportunities there, and they were worth taking a stab at. None of my losses were big blowouts, which is important. I’m not giving back more today than I would make on one, good, solid, Green Day, and that’s important.

So, tomorrow morning we all start in the exact same place for the month of May, we start at zero, right? The goal from A, for me, is $40,000 profit. Now, I’m going to look tomorrow during our midday recap at my metrics from the month of April. What worked, what didn’t work, and try to use those to gain some insights in how I kind of plan the month of May. What I’m going to focus on, what I’m going to avoid, et cetera.

So, stay tuned for the recap tomorrow, but as usual, we’ll be back at first thing tomorrow morning, pre market analysis around 9:00, 9:15. So I’ll see you guys there. If you have any questions on today’s recap, or the month of April, leave them below, I’ll come back through an answer them. I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning.

All right, everyone, so we’re going to do midday market recap here, go over the trades from this morning. Today’s going to be a Red Day recap after six consecutive Green Days. A small Red Day here down $1400. You know, today’s a day where I thought I might be Red today, because yesterday momentum was very, very, slow. I was able to get myself Green, but only by $700, and I just sort of felt like because I’ve had decreasing Green Days, that often times that results in a Red Day.

So I was really mindful of that. What I didn’t want to have happen was I didn’t have to have a big Red Day. A big Red Day for me would be, you know, $3000, $5000, or more in the Red. This morning my very first trade was on SGLB. I was pretty patient, I waited for, you know, good quality setups to come to me. This one came up, hit the scanner, it popped up, there was a headline here at 8:00 AM. Popped up here from 65 to 70. I jumped in this, it was right around … where was it? Let’s see, let me look at my order. I got in at 70. So I got in right here, 69, 70, it hit a high of 85, and then dropped right back down to 152.

So, this is kind of the same type of thing that we were seeing yesterday with stocks hitting the high day momentum scanner, and popping up a little bit, and then getting rejected. You know, so we were having these bare-ish engulfing candles, where the red candle was bigger than the green candle. So that happened on SGLB, and I ended up losing only $4.70, which is no big deal. Basically got back out flat. DGLY hits the scanners, only got a partial fill on this one. I jumped in right here as it was squeezing up. It hit a high of 533. I got in at right around 520, kind of did a little micro pull back. Only made $52. So, whatever, you know, that’s basically irrelevant.

And at that point I was like, “Well, this day is not looking super great.” You know, my first two trades are basically break even trades. A third trade was on TAIT. This one hit the scanner as well, and look at that. Another bare-ish engulfing candle. This hit a high of 295, or was it… 298. I didn’t actually get in until this micro pull back right here at 480.

This one again I got a partial fill. You know, I was like, “Well, I’ll take a stab at it. I’ll add if it breaks over five.” But you know, man look at this. It hit five and then, dropped right back down to $4.40. Then, down here to 410. So, lost $1200 on that. Actually, with only 2000 shares. I lost $0.60 per share from right up here down to here. So, good thing I went with small size.

Then, OPTT, NOVN, I mean these are just, you know… this OPTT was right here. Hit a high of 98, whatever. I lost $21. Only took… only got 700 shares on that trade, so that was a small… partial fill on a small order. Anyways, NM, this one right here ended up being a small winner, scalping it long from here to here. Wanted to go short here, but didn’t get filled. It dropped too fast. Another one that kind of ended up having high red volume on this candle.

Then, NOVN was just choppy. I got in it right here for the break over $1.30. It hit $1.30 and then, it dropped all the way down here, $1.15. I stopped out, and then it rips up to $1.35/36. So, that was a little annoying but it just wasn’t working.

So, you know, today is a day where we just had, again, a second day in a row of very poor momentum. Not a lot of follow through, and today I’m content to call it a day before I hit my max loss. I don’t see this day going anywhere good if I keep trading. I did not have three consecutive losers at any time, which is good. I had actually kind of, my first trade was a loss, second trade was a winner, third trade, I think on OPTT was a loss. NM was a winner, or Tate was a loss. NM was a winner, and then, my first trade on NOVN was actually right about here, which was a tiny winner of $70. Then, my second trade right here was a loser.

So, kind of like win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, but just not getting good follow through. The gap scanner this morning was pretty much dead. Again, all of the stocks on here were higher float. So, as soon as I saw that scanner I was like, “Well, I’m depending basically today on stuff off the high day momentum scanner.” Which sometimes works really well. But, I think what we’re seeing right now is that the overall market is just not giving us a lot of follow through. We’re not seeing really big momentum.

If we go back, just go back a couple weeks. You know, let’s see. Let me just go back here. We had, last week, we had a couple of days of some big momentum. Look at RBZ. RBZ, this is the day where it went from $10 up to $27 a share. Well, that ended up resulting in momentum that carried for several days because several other stocks that started to pop up traders were aggressive on, thinking this would be the next one to make a move. You know, just kind of think for instance sharks. You know, day traders are kind of like sharks. Were looking for opportunities. We’re quick to bite, ask questions later. Something starts to open up, often jump on very quickly.

You know, and if every time you bite you’re getting a good piece of meat you’re going to be aggressive about biting. You’re seeing other traders doing really well, you’re going to continue to be aggressive. But, then at a certain point you’re going to start getting some fake outs. You know, you go to bite on something and, you break a tooth, and I don’t know. It’s a piece of concrete that fell in that water. It’s not actually anything… it’s a rock, not a seal, you know? So, oh that got you good. Okay, well hold up. Let’s be a little more careful.

You do it a second time. Okay, wait a second, this is… what’s going on here? A third time; all right, maybe I’m going to stop biting. I’m going to wait for other people to jump on something. Then, you know, you just sort of see everyone being a little cautious, waiting. The feeding frenzy will start again. You will see a stock that starts to open up, it goes crazy, and you know, we’ll be jumping on it. Those will be the days where $5000, $10,000, $15,000, $20,000 of profit.

But in the meantime it’s very difficult because you just sort of have to be patient. On the one hand today, you could say I would have been better off just sitting on the sidelines. I thought I was probably going to… I thought there was a good chance I was going to be Red today. As I was coming to the office I was like, “There’s a good chance I’m going to be Red today. I’ve got to be really careful.” And I’m glad that I didn’t hit my max loss. I’m glad that I didn’t have one trade right out of the gates that, you know, with 9,000 shares got me for $4500 in the Red.

Did I give back a day of the profit, two days of profit? Yeah, because the last two days have been pretty small, but my daily average is still $2000 a day. So, I’m not really actually giving back more than one day of good profit. I’m still going to finish the month up $40,000, which is terrific. That’s a really good recovery off a pretty difficult March.

March was a pretty bad month for me. I was able to bounce back here in April and do quite well. So, the name of the game, as we go into May, is this is a new month starting tomorrow. We’re all starting in the exact same place tomorrow, which is zero. We’re all zero on the month, and we’ve got our monthly goals. It doesn’t look like I’m going to have one of those great starts to the month where I’m going to be able to make $15,000, $20,000 in the first week because we’re not having momentum from April carry into May right now. We’re basically starting May after a rough finish to the month of April, Monday and Tuesday here being pretty difficult for momentum traders, especially the long side.

So, you know Wednesday, Thursday, Friday have to take it easy. Oh yeah, I’m definitely still Green on April. I’m up 40 grand in April. So, April was a terrific month. Hit my monthly goal, and I’m about $12,000 away from the million dollar goal. I’m sitting right now at $987,757. So, this has taken a lot longer to cross this final finish line than I thought it would.

This last 5% has been the hardest part of the entire challenge, even harder than the first two weeks with $583. But, part of it is because the psychological challenge of knowing I’m really close to this big milestone and the other part of it has just been the bad timing that the market, for the last couple weeks, has been a little bit more difficult. We haven’t had a lot of home runs.

My biggest winner for the month of April looks like… was the day we had RBZ and CTRM. That was the day I finished up 14 grand. So, you know, that was a terrific day, and $14,000 Green Day. Hey, one of those is going to put me right over the line, but we’re just not seeing those big Green Days. We’re not seeing, since that day, we haven’t seen really, really good follow through.

Had a $6,000 day last week, $6500. That was solid. You know, a few other decent days here but, yeah, need to get a little more momentum. If I’m not getting 15, 20, 30 cent breakouts it’s going to be a slow grind to get this last $10,000, $12,000 locked up.

So, that’s all right. It’s just where I’m at right now. It’s not really that big of a deal. Progress is just trying to finish the week with a little more than I started, and as of right now I’m down, I guess on the week, I’m down $1400 today. I made $700 yesterday. So, I guess I’m down about $700 on the week. That’s not a big deal. That’s one… that’s not even one decent trade.

For a decent trade, every decent trade for me should be over $1000 of profit. So, I’ll bounce back. You know, if it’s not tomorrow, maybe Thursday, Friday. Finish up the week here with a couple Green trades. Green on the week would be a good goal. But yeah, a little bit slower out there.

So, definitely a good time to exercise patience. I think I over traded a little bit today. NOVN I probably should have just left it alone. I mean, here it is hitting 44, you know a little annoying but the breakout… you know, false breakout is a false breakout. Sometimes they go afterwards, and sometimes it’s worth giving it another shot, but realistically it’s only up about $0.11 from the initial breakout spot. So, we’re talking about for me to even have made $900 on it I would have needed 10,000 shares. Then, you’re dealing with commissions being higher, the ECN fees and everything else.

So, it feels like I’m grasping at straws to try to keep trading today. So, it means that these bunny ears are going to have to go on the shelf. Wore them for six consecutive Green Days and now they’re on the shelf, same as my raccoon costume from Halloween. I’ll wear an American flag or something on Memorial Day. Maybe I’ll be wearing that for a couple of weeks if I get a nice Green streak at the end of May and into June.

Yeah, it’s just good to know the time to walk away, and doesn’t mean that if I didn’t sit here for another four hours there probably wouldn’t be something that I would find as a winner, but is it really worth the energy and time to do that? To me, the answer is going to always be no, it’s not worth it.

So, going to lock up a small Red Day here. Live to trade another day. Be back at it first thing tomorrow morning. Hopefully we have a better looking gap scanner, but it’s probably going to require not just a good gap scanner, it’s going to require a stock to kind of surprise us. And, be irrationally strong, just all of a sudden, like it’s going to have to fake out short sellers because right now I think short sellers are a little more aggressive, gaining some confidence with some of these drops that they’ve been seeing, which is fine. It’s just part of the cycle of the market.

When things start to be a little stronger to the long side, you know we’ll certainly capitalize on that, just as they’re capitalizing on these short opportunities. But, yeah, need to get some pressure on the short sellers on a stock, like on RBZ that just does something that makes no sense at all, like halt seven times in a row going up. When we get it we’ll do well on it, but just a little bit of a waiting game. So, got to be patient.

All right everyone, so that’s it for me. I’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning. Hopefully we see some good gap scanner opportunities and I can hit a little winner on a gap and go trade. All right, I’ll see you guys in the morning.

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