Warrior Trading Blog

Finally Break Even! +$2.870! | Ross’ Trade Recap

blog_ross_recap_08_13

What’s up everyone. All right. Here we are, fifth green day in a row. I am happy about that. About $12,500 profit in the last five days of trading. That’s the great news.

 

The bad news is that it really only puts me about break even on the month and of course breakeven is better than being down 12 or 13,000. It’s not where I’d like to be coming into, well, the third week. I mean, well yeah this is third week of the month. I mean that’s kind of disappointing. For me right now I’ve had to be a little bit more conservative. I can’t be really aggressive, put the pedal to the metal because I don’t have a big profit cushion. Right now I was just trying to be, it’s almost like I’m playing catch up if you’re doing a race, like a race car, so you’re doing the laps. For me to catch up I just had to do perfect laps again and again and again.

I can’t afford to make mistakes. I have to almost, count on someone else to make a mistake for me to be able to catch up. I just have to do, have perfect execution. Then if I’m able to get, with a little bit of luck, I get a little bit of make some headway then I can start to be a little bit more aggressive. As that relates to trading for the rest of this week I have to continue just focus on two to three really good trades a day. I can’t be aggressive on those setups that might be a little bit of a swing for the fences. I can’t afford to do it. Yeah, I’d love to home run but I can’t afford to strike out. Right now it’s about starting to build that cushion and then once I’ve got the cushion then probably next week and the week after, that’s when I might be able to start to take a little bit more risks if we’re seeing good momentum and I’ve got the cushion.

That’s what I did in June. I started June down $16,000 on the first day and I finished the month up 36,000 so like a $50,000 swing from the low to the high and it started first with the goal of break even and then the goal was $10,000 profit. I got it. Now $20,000, I got it and then with $20,000 profit at that point I had a cushion to start to be aggressive towards the end of the month and I made another 15,000. I would love to see something similar like that happen here for August. Time will tell. It really depends, more than anything probably on the strength of the market. The good news is today we saw some really good strength so I’m excited for tomorrow. I’ll be back at it first thing and hoping to see some more momentum.

Any questions, any comments? Leave them below. You enjoy these videos, like, subscribe and get the alerts. Press the alert button so you get the alert whenever I go live in the mornings for our pre market analysis. All right, enjoy and I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning. All right everyone. We’re going to break down the trades from this morning. Another really solid day. Finishing the day up, $2,871. Green is good and it’s always important to know when to walk away. Four trades today, four winners, I’m happy with that. If anything, I undertraded a little bit today. There were a couple of opportunities that I totally missed. TIS, the stock went from 80 cents. Currently it’s a $2.11 cents and halted on a circuit breaker.

Obviously a big move there. The first pullback right here. This was the lowest risk place to get in, but I didn’t take it. At this point I was thinking, you know what, book the profits, walk away, live to trade another day. We’re in a market where we’re seeing some opportunities, but in a really strong market, I’m going to be up five to eight, $10,000 in the first hour. Since we’re closing, we closed the first hour and I’m up only 2,800. That by itself is an indicator to be a little bit careful. I thought, you know what, I’m going to take the money and be done. I’ll come back, keep it up tomorrow. Small winners, that’s kind of the name of the game. It’s base hits. Four base hits, two trades on XBIO. One trade on ABIL. One trade on AYTU. My biggest winner was only about I guess a thousand dollars, which is good. Obviously, not the most impressive winner that you guys have ever seen me lock down.

I’ve missed this move on TIS. You know, if it goes really crazy, I think that’s just awesome for momentum traders. I’m happy to see it even if I personally don’t capitalize on it on this trade. I’d be worried about the possibility of it getting halted going back down. One of the strategies is to short halt. It’s going back down because they almost always open lower. Right now if this drops 20%, it can halt going back down. Around $1.90, I would start to be worried about that possibility. That’s TIS. ABIL, I also undercapitalized on a little bit. I got in this out of the gates for a scalp over seven. I was in this right at 6.94, sold half at 7.19, sold more around 7.20. Added back at 7.20. Sold at 7.24. I was scalping this basically right out of the gates on this move up to a high of 7.32. Right.

On that one I made whatever it was, $728 right here on those two trades. Actually, I had five trades today, I forgot about that second trade on ABIL. Five trades, but then it came back up and double top right here and broke through that level. It pulled back for a while sideways and then it popped up right here. I didn’t trade this pop right up here but as it pulled back here I was watching it and the reason I didn’t trade it is because I thought at the time it was too extended off of its moving average right here. I thought it was up a little bit too much. This was a red doji but you know what, it broke over 7.50 and squeezed right up to $8. That was a nice clean move. I missed it. I wasn’t being as aggressive as I could have been and you know, it’s fine. I’m okay with that but I did miss that trade.

There was that one. XBIO, I took two trades on. This one’s a similar setup in that the first trade was a squeeze out of the gates getting in at 3.80, scalping up to 4.05. Pullback here, consolidation, and then it squeezes back up, right? Same kind of thing. On this one I got back in and scalped the move up here. I added at, let’s see, 4.34 and it got halted at 4.37. From the halt, it resumed higher and hit a high of 4.60 and that’s where I was able to book that thousand dollars of profit right up there. That was a nice trade. That’s the thing with circuit breaker halts, as you can see with TIS, typically when they halt they open higher. This one, it halted at 97 cents and it resumed at $1.01, so a little bit of a gap there.

Then it got halted $1.46 and resumed at $1.48. Actually kind of small halt jumps there, but it’s very common to see stocks when they squeeze up, they halt going higher. They halt and then they open higher. This has a high now of $2.40 kind of consolidating under these highs. That was ABIL and XBIO. Then the last one, AYTU. This one was on our scans this morning. It was actually the leading gapper because it had a reverse split. It squeezed up from 5.50, well from a low of from 5.50 all the way up to $7. On this one I was watching it at 5.50 and I hesitated. I saw it pulling back and doing this kind of like micro pullback right here but I hesitated on it. I wasn’t sure. Then squeezed up to 6.18 and got halted. It then resumed higher at 6.50. It pulled back and squeezed back up over 6.50.

I jumped in, it hit a high of, just under $7 and I was able to scalp that move there. So on AYTU, I was in 6.48 right here. Sold 6.58, 6.64, 6.79, 6.51 so it wasn’t the biggest winner ever, but just a small scalp. I just hesitated down here on this entry at 5.50 because I felt like the spreads were pretty big. The risk felt pretty high and I just didn’t want to give back my profit. At that point I was already up $1,500 and I thought if I jump into this and lose 50 cents, which was possible because the spread was like 5.10 or 5.04 by 5.40. So if I lose 40 or 50 cents per share immediately I’m going to give back half of my morning profit with 1,500 shares. I kind of hesitated. I didn’t take the trade and then end up popping up and moving.

Again, I’m being a little bit more conservative, but the reality is I’m sitting here today is, let’s see, one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. Today is the ninth trading day of the month and I’m still down like 400 bucks on the month. I was down 12,000, 13,000 at the lowest. In the last five days I’ve made back about $12,500 so I’m still down about $500 on the month and I’m just not in a position to take that extra level of risk. Right now I have to grind on these kind of smaller numbers. I have to be really disciplined. I have to follow the rules. If I had started the month with a $15,000 winner and I had a big cushion, then I could certainly be more aggressive because if I lost I can, you know, I can afford it.

But right now I can’t. That’s an interesting thing how where you’re at on the day, on the week or month or even on the year can change your behavior and how you trade. On the one hand you might say that that’s not good, but on the other hand it’s just the reality of trading. If you’ve had a bad year, a bad month, you’re going to be a little bit more conservative and that is the right thing to do. It’s not a good idea to be really aggressive when you are already red on the month because being aggressive hasn’t worked, right. If that’s what got you into the red, which was the case for me. Likewise, if you’ve had a really great year, you know you do want to amp it up a little bit, increase the size, be a little more aggressive and try to book those profits because the window of opportunity is there right in front of you and you want to capitalize on it.

It is to be expected that you’ll adapt your risk profile and your strategy a little bit to different market conditions and to how you’re personally trading in those markets and that’s what I’m doing here in August. I would love to see things continue to be strong. Today actually really a great sign for momentum with all three of the names that I traded being, you know, giving us some good opportunities. XBIO, really nice. ABIL, impressive move no doubt. AYTU, even though I didn’t make much on it, had a lot of range. Then TIS, even though I missed it, it’s great to see this. I mean this is what we love to see from 80 cents to $2.40, that’s a crazy move.

Right now I would say momentum is looking a little bit better and if I can get a couple trades where I can build my cushion really nicely right out of the gates, then I’d be willing to be a little bit more aggressive. Today the first trade on ABIL, it was already up, it was up so much premarket, but it had also pulled back a little bit here. This was a funny entry point. It wasn’t the best setup, so just a scalp setup, not a home run setup, XBIO, this one had potential. I was being aggressive on it, but it hit 4.05 and then came all the way back down, so it didn’t hold up on the first move. It’s been a little funny, not totally the cleanest day but definitely seeing at least a little bit more volatility, and a little more opportunity than we’ve seen in the last … Well, in the first part of August anyways.

All right, so that’s about it for me. We’ll hopefully see some more opportunities and I’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning. All right, I’ll see you guys all in the morning. If you’re still watching, you must’ve enjoyed that video so why not subscribe and get email alerts anytime I upload new content? Remember, when you subscribe, you become a member of the Warrior Trading family