Warrior Trading Blog

Getting Up To Speed For An All GREEN Week! | Roberto’s Weekly Recap


What’s going on guys? Roberto here. And today, once again, we are going to go ahead and talk about the trades from the week. As I said last week that we kind of took it very slow because the market was really not offering that much. We were really looking forward to this week because we knew the earning season was just about to come back.

And of course, since we were actually ready to catch the opportunity, we jumped in some very nice trades. This week, we had a very, very good consistency. I took an overall total of five trades, and four of those were winners. And the only loser we had was the smallest trade that we actually ended up taking.

So I ended up having no red days this week, and a lot of nice wins in chat room as well as we, of course, share all that we do live real time every day. So without further ado, just jump over my shoulder and let’s review those traits together. And hopefully you can also learn something valuable from it.

All right guys, let’s do this. Let’s talk about the trades from the week. And as usual, we’ll go ahead and analyze the actual situation for the month of July as we approach actually the end of the month, there will only be three more trading days. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

And so far, it’s been quite slow in the number of trades, I ended up taking only 11 trades this month. And, of course, I took a couple of days off here and there, but really the impact on the number of trades was on the fact that we did not have much movement in the summer season outside of the earnings is actually one of the slowest of the year.

So it actually makes sense to take a lower amount of trades than usual. So if you happen to analyze your trades and you find out they’re opposites, so that you are taking more trades when the market is slow, you may want to rethink a little bit your approach because of course, that’s going to have an impact, a negative impact on your overall results. So, you want to you want to take more trades when the market is hot and not the opposite.

Here we are analyzing the trades from the week. We had a very, very good week, going to be honest with you. We took an overall amount here of five trades, and the four of them were green trades and the only red trade that we had actually, was the lowest also impact as a monetary result.

So you always want to have that approach when you are kind of patient waiting for your winning trade to get big, and to cut out those that aren’t actually working. That’s what we did this week. That’s why we ended up with four out of five green trades, and only one red trade. And overall guys, we have an accuracy now have 81, almost 82%.

Of course, the lower amount of trades we took this month so far isn’t really going help in the terms of defining the final year of course. But it’s always good to see such a number right there. So, 11 trades not big enough or [inaudible 00:04:38], but I’m very satisfied with the overall accuracy 82%. And also with the overall profit-loss ratio, we are at this point about four to one, so for 4.17 to one. So I can’t really complain but that’s the overall picture.

Now we’re going to talk about very quickly, about each one of those traits, what I did see what I was looking at. And so that you can also recognize a little bit of my style and my approach into trading. So first trade we took, it was on Tuesday, we didn’t have anything special on Monday. So I end up taking no trades. And then from Tuesday to Friday, we have a bunch of earnings guys, there were a lot of opportunities in the community.

We really had multiple opportunities, multiple stocks which was from every day, I ended up selecting my own, but it doesn’t mean that was able to take every one opportunity that presented itself. But I’m so happy that a lot of other members actually did indeed take different names and different setups and we had a very, very nice resolution this week. That’s always good to know. And, and we’re looking forward for next week to finish the month strong and to have more opportunities to take advantage of.

So first one was on Tuesday. I ended up taking trade on UTX. And it was a three minutes open range break down one of my favorite setup to get to the short side, and I had entry at 13550, we’ll look right into it, and ended up taking a very nice win to start the week. Only 800 shares, but we locked up more than a point on average. And it actually happened also pretty quickly. Let’s analyze it together.

So here’s UTX and as you may be already familiar with, this is my trading view layout. So we have the three minute set up here on the left. Then we have the 10 minutes time frame here on the top right. And on the bottom right corner here we have the daily chart just to have a look on the overall daily situation. So what did they see on United Technologies?

Well first of all, I noticed that there was a gap up. We have kind of good volume here. These an [inaudible 00:07:27] cumulative volume, is a custom coded indicator that I built for trading view. By the way, I’m dropping down in the comments below link, if you’re interested to take a serious step forward, and subscribe on a very good, in my opinion very, very good, very reliable and powerful charting platforms such as trading view.

I’m dropping down in the description down below a link. You can go ahead click into it, subscribe to any of the packages, and then you can email me at [email protected], I will be more than happy to share with you guys for free my custom layout. So since this is one of the most actually common question that I have, I just went ahead and made it available to you guys.

So let me inside UTX. UTX, the first thing I noticed and that’s what I always do before eventually getting involved into a trade. Whenever we have a catalyst, whenever we have higher relative volume to the pre-market and especially we have about 50k short trade during pre-market. That’s when I look more closely to the daily chart to see if we had in the past also signed the kind of big days, right? You want to have those big solid either green or red candles just to make sure that these one stock has the potential to make the move. That was the case in UTX.

Look at these guys, look how big this one candle. For example here we have eight points candle followed by another big candle here, other six points. And so we know that we have, when we have high relative volume, the move really can be substantial. And so as traders, we really have heart for volatility. And so whenever I notice that we knew we had the potential that they, of course to make a substantial move.

On the pre-market I was actually a little bit concerned because I was looking this one level here about 136. As you can see is very, very clear here on the 10 minutes chart as well as in the three minute chart, I was looking for it at 9:00 am. Well, if this thing can hold this level, and it can break down below it, as soon as it gets below the 13 EMA here on the 10 minutes as well, which is this yellow line, then there maybe a continuation play, right, maybe.

But it ended up making this move, like big move during pre-market. So it went all the way from 136 to basically 133.77, so it went all the way there and by that time 9:15, like it happened really in 10 minutes. I was like well, this thing really made the move already. So what are the chances for you to raise that up, right?

But in the meanwhile of course, there weren’t any other very, very good potential moves out there. And so of course, I included these in my watch and before the open actually, this thing was able to recover the full moon, and got back above the 136 level. So at that point, I’m back interested into the move, whether if it was able to actually push above the 137, or if actually was able to break down again. Because at this point, I know that there is no vital support all the way down here to this low in pre-market, right?

So at that point, I have all these levels marked out, all I have to do is wait for the setup to present itself. And for me, as you guys may know already, there is no trading during the first three minutes. But the first three minutes it was very important for me to plan for the next move, right?

So the first three minutes we’re really undersized. We had a decent volume for $136 stock 250k shares traded and during the first three minutes, it is kind of okay, definitely okay. There was action on the stock that could have meant potential volatile move ahead. And as soon as this one tremendous candle printed I really went ahead and mark the lows, and it was at 135.50 here, the low of the three minutes.

And then on the following three minutes I was looking for it to eventually open and push that level again, so that I could have gone short in order to potentially take advantage of this pocket right here. And even more importantly, look at this level here of conference, we have view up. We have the 13 EMA on the three minutes which is this orange line, and the 13 EMA on the 10 minutes, which is this yellow line, all in within basically 10 cents. That’s a very, very good confidence level.

So I know that if the next three minutes candle open and start pushing, here is 135.50, there is a high chance for it to break and when it breaks, there is a high chance to make it a very short move to the downside. So next three minutes candle opens and pushes a little bit here into this resistance you will see just shortly, and then it starts pushing below. It starts pushing the 135.50 that’s when I hit the bead. And I got in, and boom, look at these guys. This is ridiculously good.

So it just push a little bit, and then start to sell off. So as soon as it start to sell off, I know I’m basically only risking about 20, 25 cents guys. So this thing basically had … I actually ended up placing my stop right above the 13 EMA on the 10 minutes. And so at that point I’m entering here, in the same point we have, the three minutes open range breakdown. So here, this 135 level, 50 level. We were slightly below the 136 level from pre-market and all these moving averages plus the view up. So it was just the ideal situation to go short into.

As soon as we got in this thing just flush down guys, look at this. It went all the way to this green line which was my first target, and this blue line here second target, and all the way basically to all my targets in just about the three, five minutes. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to cover all the position in the second flush here, just because it happened so quickly that I was still putting out my orders to get filled.

As soon as I put out my last order to get out, this thing was already recovering so I ended recovering the last piece here, around here. So I wasn’t really able to scale out my entire position like I always do. I always take here this green line, which is the 1.5 to one profit loss ratio line, I take my one third of my position off then I take the second to the position of here on the 2.521. And then I take one sixth of my position on fourth one, which is this purple line here. And the blue line here, the last one down here, which is the six to one profit loss ratio, here is when I typically take the rest of my position off.

But it just happen not to be quick enough, so I ended up taking the rest of these push back up, but I couldn’t really complain about the move. It actually ended up holding these 13 EMA on the 10 minutes, basically for a longer time, and then it ended up also here making another very, very nice move to the downside.

There were a lot of other members in the community, they were more patient actually than I was, and they were able to take advantage of this continuation move. Very nice job there guys. So it’s about it on UTX. The following one was on, the two trades that I took on the 24th. 24th of July was Wednesday, I took first iRobot, the only loss of the week. And then I ended up taking a continuation trade on Texas Instrument.

So first one was on iRobot. So what was the setup in iRobot? Why did I take it, and how it all unfolded? So first of all, we were basically here. All right. We were here on iRobot. And I was analyzing it, this huge gap down once again on earnings was this one day here. So the daily we really have a low below because it was basically right here this pivot, the low was about 70.86, but we had a lower low here at 70.20 here on the first flush right on the earnings.

So for me whenever I have this situation, and whenever we are close, relatively close to the prior pre-market lows, and I’m always more cautious and I don’t take the three minutes open range trade. I always wait for confirmation below that level because I know this area can be of support. And so in order for me to justify the trade, I have to have some sort of risk reward ratio parameter in my favor.

And taking the three minutes opening range breakdown here, I can show that to you here, it doesn’t mean … So taking it to me was open range breakdown that meant with a reasonable stop here or about 13 EMA, back at the 13 EMA in three minutes, it will amount to have the first target 1.5 to one, well below the circled line here that you’ll see a 7.22 which was that the pre-market lows.

So whenever I have the situation whenever I have a level of support that is above my first target I’m always a little bit more cautious, so I weighed eventually for confirmation below to take my trade. So this thing and up selling more off, and it ended up going all the way to a lower 69.25. And so at this point I am looking for a potential continuation. For me a potential a continuation is a trade on first the three minutes bad [inaudible 00:20:48] in this case because I’m a trained trader. So I’m willing to take a trade in the direction of the overall price action which was definitely bearish.

So what ended up happening for me I was waiting for three minutes pattern which ended up happening right here at 9:45. We have this nice candle here. So we had a very good resistance, and now taking place at about 70.80 here the high of this candle area. And so as soon as this candle open instead of selling off, that’s when I got short. That’s short right here at 70.35 here.

And first thing we notice we have this nice flush. We had a nice first flush. And so I had my first order, that now really looks reasonable because as you can see it’s even above the previous day’s low. And so when I had that situation I feel confident about my trade, but also I got to be extremely careful because of course, on one hand, this thing was already down like 20% or so on the day. And also, it had a very, very small float, a smaller float than I would typically trade.

So the stock I think you have like 20 million shares of float. So I typically see for … if you look for and anything above like 60 million for my trades just because I know the volatility can be kind of crazy. And so I was mindful of that. And as soon as I saw, I noticed this first candle working the second candle, kind of retest here the low of the previous one, but instead of going lower it start pushing higher, it start pushing higher, and I really don’t like it anymore as soon as it took off above my entry.

It didn’t really show any more sign of weakness. That’s when I will lose trust on these my set up, I ended up cutting my loss at 70.61, so it was even below my max loss for the trade. But because of this price action really inconsistent all of a sudden, I decided to cut in loose. I kind of loose here 70.61.

And then the thing ended up retesting 70.80, it started to sell off again. And it could have ended up working. But at that point, I really couldn’t trust it anymore because I knew this thing had the potential to make this kind of quick pops. And next thing you know, if you’re holding a position from down there, and you don’t stop it right away when it doesn’t work, then you may find yourself in a bigger hole than you may have anticipated.

And so I stopped about here, at about 25, 26 cents of lost their my position, and so I was able to contain my loss, right. So that’s what we said it’s all about having everything right, but it’s about containing the loss, cutting the loss quickly and maximizing the winners. That’s why I put a yes here, because they really did failed, did they follow my plan? Even though I didn’t stop at exactly 70.90, which was my initial stop price area.

And so as I was satisfied about the way I ended up managing this one trade. And so my mind was still clear, and I was still looking for eventually other opportunities, and that’s when Texas Instrument ended up giving itself a shot. So here very quickly guys, I don’t want to take too much of your precious time. But here we had another gap up. A very nice push here and we were pushing here, but whenever we have the situation I wait for it take out the pre-market highs.

Pre-market highs were 128.82, at this point when the first I tested here, I was actually busy trying to make the iRobot trade working works, but it really didn’t. And so as soon as I closed the trade I noticed, here we were actually pushing above the previews pre-market the highs, this orange line here is a 52 week highs, but at that point, of course, it wasn’t up here at 129.80, and there was basically nothing in the way.

And so as soon as I noticed this thing pulling back, and forming these support. So whenever I have the situation first push above pre-market highs, I always wait for a pullback, pullback on a 13 EMA on the three minutes, start to push up once again. And that’s when I got one. I got one here at about 128.90, I’m not mistaken, let me check. At 128.95 just below here, the higher previous candle.

We have a very nice switch in price action here. And so this thing, just started pushing. I had my first target ID here at 129.59, and it ended up hitting, and then I was eventually looking for 130, around 131.90 was my next target, and instead this thing started selling off and in the first three minutes here to make a new low, I actually ended up taking it off.

I wanted to lock up my profit, and also the price action really switched, and it looked so much heavier this point, all of a sudden after this big push. So you never actually know that for sure. Before of course, the move actually presents itself. But I didn’t really like it anymore. And to be honest with you, also, I was still kind of emotionally disturbed by the first … The first trading I was a loser. So I wanted to flip back to the green for the day and ended up taking that last off there. As soon as I noticed there was no immediate continuation to my next targets.

And to be honest with you, it was … I mean, hindsight of course, but it was the right decision to make because this thing it hadn’t sold off, I would have most likely stopped the rest break even in the best case scenario. So nice there, we’re able to flip and to stay green, even the day we had the red trade, and then the next two trades.

These two trades. The first one was on PTC very quickly, because PTC was similar to the iRobot was very similar to the iRobot. So I tried to be very quick. So we had a very, very nice gap down. The setup was actually better, a little bit better than iRobot. Because on iRobot, what we had was a very sharp sell off early in, when the earnings came out, and then followed by some sort of consolidation that wasn’t really going anywhere. And then it ended up selling off into the open.

But on PTC, I like it more because it presented a situation where we had lower highs and lower lows, very visible at 10 minutes as well here, and so whenever we have the situation, I look for the same. I look for the pre-market lows, but because of where we ended up opening right here up here. The pre-market lows again, it was quite high for me to enter, as you can see here, basically my risk of the 13 EMA to three minutes, really the first target felt really so much far away.

We ended up going further more, but it didn’t feel comfortable here, and they’re entering just to that pre-market lows into the first test. And instead, I waited for the retest, right. So that’s what we do when the first one fails, we don’t just randomly jump in, we wait for the first retest. And so that’s what happens here. This thing ended up having and finding itself, and finding here support.

After that we had a very nice retest, nice push. It wasn’t very clean, to be honest with you. But the retest here on the view up, we know it has to hold above it, and eventually push higher to break the setup. If it goes above and then rejects it in three minutes, that’s when we know we can eventually take the continuation right? We can take it right here. That’s what I did.

I waited for this candle to close after, and kind of neglecting this push about the 13 EMA in the view up, and I was ready to take it short right here. Actually anticipate this one a little. I took a little bit of a risk trade here but the 10.09, this kind of open it pushed a little bit about 10 cents, eight cents above 75. It started selling off, and here’s where I want in.

I wanted to be in a 75, anticipated in a little bit, but I was feeling comfortable of having a stop actually right around here back above close to this 75.25 area, so risking about 20 to 25 cents to be honest with you, probably 20 cents I was looking actually for. And this thing just cracked below the previous three minutes low. And I ended up anticipating this one a little also from a very practical reason.

Whenever we are in a situation where a stock is below minus 10% for the day, compared to yesterday, calls in price, there is a mechanism called the short sale restriction that will not allow you to just jump in short on the bid, you will have to get your field on an uptick.

And so that’s when it’s a typical situation when I actually end up being a little bit more kind of aggressive, and having my field before the actual crack because they know that when a crack happens more often than not, you just feel like a sudden kind of push, and flash down. And you really have no option there to be taking your short there at the apex point.

So I anticipated that a little also because of the reason. And I was watching it very closely because I wanted to see these this 174.90 level to crack, because I was curious to see what would have been the reaction right there. And I really loved what I’d seen, because as soon as this thing went to 74.90, boom, there was a flash and I got immediately field on first target and second target in close proximity. Then I got field the third target as well.

And then here we have a weird bottle at 74. As soon as … you know we’re still waiting for you to see if we could reach 73.78 my last target, but instead this thing held it, it pushed back above, I went out here I guess a way to leave that until 74.60s, so I actually got out now, I guess it was a 10 minutes high here on 74.60. Yeah, that’s when I got out on the rest, but still a very nice trade, very happy with the way I managed it.

And then we come to today. Today it was Twitter day. So what was the setup on Twitter? Very, very similar to what we saw on TXM. Let’s finalize it together. Because it’s so good to see this kind of setup presented themselves like kind of over and over again. And that’s what ended up happening on Twitter.

So, Twitter was an earnings play again in the look. Whenever we have an earning place, as I said, I always like to analyze will happen on recent earnings, and that’s what happened right here on Twitter. We have a gap up, and then we went a high like 3.5 points, 3.5 points on a $35 stock at that point it was 10% move guys intraday, which is beautiful. Which is beautiful to now, and very precious information because we know that today, or a potential big day when we have once again high relative volume. Look at that we had a high relative volume here.

And today look at this again we had and we are having high relative volume again. And so whenever you have the situation you know you have a high chance of success, or predicting the move. So we have we had once again a gap up, and I was looking at this 41 level. This 41 level here is what I was looking for. So 41 level, 41.03 was the high of the pre-market.

It was also aligned, very beautiful alignment here with a high of this pivot here on the day, so when we had the situation it was basically very, very, very good space to roam about to eventually continue to run, once we reclaimed and hold above that level, and that’s what I was looking for.

So in the first 10 minutes, we had a push here, and then the second two minutes rejected this 41 level quite strongly to be honest with you. But instead of this move kind of stopping right there, we had boom, in the next push right there. And I was looking for it to 41, but since I was actually also watching another stock the same time was YNDX, I ended up missing that one move and also this one kind of the same time.

That’s the deal sometime in trading, it’s really a matter of few seconds, especially in day trading to take the best entry. And so, I ended up missing this one, three minutes of rearrange trade, it could have been quite nice to be honest with you, it would have been quite nice to have a 41 entry right here risking, and to about here the 13 EMA here on the three minutes. It will end up being a very nice trade, but instead of just being desperate to have missed this entry, I waited for what? I waited for the next three minutes bull flag in this case, right?

The direction is clearly strong, is clearly to the upside. And so I will be looking for a pullback and a three minutes setup. Now since this thing pushed, and basically reached this 41.58 level and start to kind of pull back, I still notice first of all, that the selling here, the selling volume was much lower than the buying volume we had here in the beginning of the day.

And so whenever I am in the situation, I am kind of know that there is a high chance for it to continue in the same direction right. And so I waited for this one three minutes candle to print, and then the next candle, I was eventually ready to take it long. And I ended up anticipating here that three minutes continuation, I will typically take it when it makes a new high compared to the previous three minutes, but since I was also, and meanwhile, drawing my little risk reward here, it’s actually a Fibonacci that also work as a risk reward kind of tool.

I noticed that … once again this one first target at that point really looked a little bit unrealistic, not only the first target look at all the other targets. Look at how big of move should actually be happening for me to have a decent win. And so as soon as this three minutes candle opened, it started pushing up and I anticipated my entry that point of 41.30.

So I knew I could have had a stop down here, I replace a stop I made a stop here 41.03 right below this one, three minutes candle. So I really felt I had enough room for that eventually to work, and I knew that if we were able to make a new three minutes high, then there was a high chance at this point to reach my targets.

Look at now, how much my targets look actually now reasonable. So this target here, first target 41.67 or 66 that’s where I end up putting my first target by the way, you can see here in the chatroom, what is the community I ended up sharing my exact entry here. Plus means going along Twitter 41.30, then out one third of my position 41.66, then out more 130 more to 41.91. And then I end up taking more off the 41.72, since I notice it was a rejection of 42 level. So I just wanted to lock up more profit.

And then the last target, I end up taking the last piece off at 42.28. Look at that cover 42, yeah, here is 29, but it’s basically the same as here at 42.28, we almost stopped tick the whole move to this moment, this very moment. Now we are at about 12:20 pm. And so this one happened almost two hours ago, and we ended up taking the last piece off, almost at the top tick, which is always great to know.

But if you ask me of course there’s no way that I could have known that this one would have been the exact top pick. What I need to be okay with, is the fact that I knew that I had a very positive risk reward ratio for my trade, and that’s really it for me. I don’t really need to be top ticking my trades every single time, by now I want to take my profits on the way to my targets.

So I really hope you enjoyed this session. That’s really it with the weekly recap. I want to thank you guys for joining and also for watching the entire thing, and so if you like this content please share some love on pushing that like button, and that’s very much appreciated. So I know I can continue producing similar contents for the future. So I’ll see you guys next week, and I wish you all the best for this weekend.

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