Warrior Trading Blog

Green While Wearing Red! +$1,200! | Ross’ Trade Recap

red

What’s up, everyone? All right. Here we are Monday morning. I’m boldly wearing red and finishing in the green. Happy with that. Up $1,200. Today’s the day where I actually had horrible accuracy.

 

I took four trades and I’m green on only one of them, so 25% accuracy today versus a 75% accuracy or like 73% for the entire month of October. A little bit of a dip in accuracy today. A little bit of, whatever, abnormality to be that low, but the reality is I can still be green as the long as the winners are bigger than the losers. That’s what really matters. The three losers were $700, $800 and I think $400.

The one winner was 3,200 bucks and with the potential to be a $15,000 winner if that trade really worked. That’s kind of what I go for is I look for trades that have base hit potential or maybe home run potential with a really good probability of being a solid base hit. Whenever I take those trades, I try to risk as little as possible. Even on the trade where I had the potential to make $15,000, my initial risk was only about $1,000. That’d be a 15:1 profit/loss ratio, which is awesome. Another green day here. Well, second green day of the month.

I was red on Friday, but get myself back in the driver’s seat in the green. Beginning of the week, that feels good. It’s a nice way to start the week. We’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning 9:00-9:15 for pre-market analysis. Hoping for a couple more good trades, gap scans, MOMO scanner alerts, and keep booking those profits. All right? I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning. Any questions, any comments, leave them below. I’ll answer them later this afternoon.

All right, everyone. Time for our midday market recap here. Finished the morning up $1,281.68. That’s a green day, you know? I can be happy with that. Today is a Monday. Redemption. Getting back a little bit of those profits that I lost on the red day on Friday. Overall that’s great, but when we look at the P&L, you’re going to see that it’s not really what I want it to be. I’m red in my IRA account right here, $1,257. That is very disappointing. I really don’t like having red days in the IRA. That one, that’s just frustrating, but it is what it is. Red there and then up $2,500 in my main account.

Today’s one of those days where I’m actually red on three out of four names, but I’m still walking away green. Even though I only have 25% accuracy today, I’m up 1,200 bucks, you know? That says something about profit/loss ratio. That’s really what it’s all about. None of these losses are more than a thousand bucks and then the one trade that worked out, a $3,200 winner. It makes up for all the losers. Even with only 25% accuracy, I’m green today. I’m happy about that. We’ll go over kind of each of these four trades, but it’s definitely disappointing to have red days in the IRA. I felt pretty confident on SCON, but then that one failed.

By that point, I was already in CHCI and so I sort of knew that that was probably not going to be good for the CHCI trade. Today was one of those days where we just didn’t have the level of momentum that I was sort of expecting. Little bit of a disappointing morning in that sense, but a day where I’m walking away with more money than I had two hours ago. Progress is good. All right. I’m going to push this down here. I’ll put the light speed account there and the IRA account right here. Okay. First trade of the day was AYTU. Now this was off of our gap scanner. Remember, every morning starts the same way. It’s our morning routine.

I’m looking at the gap scanner. I’m looking at the stocks that are going to open higher this morning than they closed yesterday. We can see the leading gapper is INUV, gapping up 168%. Now as it turns out, this stock has entered into a definitive merger agreement, and so I usually don’t like to trade merger agreements. Either when stocks are being bought out or they’re merging, that’s just not really the strongest catalyst in my experience. That one I left alone. Next one down, AYTU. On this one, I’m looking at the pre-market chart. You kind of do have first pullback, second pullback, and I ended up buying the third pullback.

I have a rule that I don’t usually buy the third pullback. I like to buy the first and second. However, the only time that I will buy the third pullback is when it happens right at the open because what we often see is a squeeze right out of the gates. Unfortunately on this one, that is not what we saw. I jumped in it out of the gates. It dipped down for just a second. It then surged up over $1.55 right here. I got in with 6000 shares at $1.55 and then I added another 3,000 shares at $1.57. All right? 9,000 share position and then I stopped out at 48 for a $736 loss. It dropped down to 39, so my stop was good.

I saved myself 900 bucks by getting out fast, but it just didn’t hold up. Disappointing that it didn’t touch the pre-market high of 65. I was looking for a break over 65. About a $.07 to $.15 profit target and in this case, a $.07 loss. That was my first trade on AYTU. My second trade was on PLAG. Now this one was also on the gap scanners. You can see right here, gapping up 10% this morning. I had it on watch as a stock just to keep an eye on because you never know with these. It’s obviously a former run as you can see here from the data that went from $2 to $11. Then came all the way back down, but then it squeezed back up.

Sideways consolidation, whatever. I’m watching it for a move up to the high side. The bell rings and it’s kind of sideways, sideways, sideways, and then right here it pops up to $5.30. As it goes up to $5.40 and $5.50, that’s where I jumped in. I’m in this at $5.49, $5.51. Adding at $5.58, adding at $5.52, adding at $5.93, and adding at $6. On this one, I took 15,000 shares. You can see I’m adding within a $.50 range. My first position is at $5.50 and my last add was at $6. I really was pretty aggressive on this one and the reason is because I looked at this on the daily chart as having potential.

If it broke over $6 to go up to $6.45 and if it broke $6, it has room all the way back up to this high right here, which is $8.74. This to me was a definite home run potential type of stock and so I stepped up to the plate with pretty big size on it. As you can see, it squeezes up here. It tap $6. It pulls back. It then surges up over $6. Doesn’t hold that level. It pulls back and so right in here I sell about 10,000 shares. I’m still holding 5,000 through here, through here, through here, and I end up selling them right here. I gave it a chance to make a new high and pop up right here at 87.

It made a new high, but it didn’t go immediately to high of day and so my stop was the low of the pullback and I stopped out here as it came back down. I was actually up closer to $4,000 on it and then because I added at $6, I sold that for a loss. This was a green trade with $3,000, with the potential to make anywhere from $7,500 to maybe even $15,000. My max risk on this when I first got in with 3,000 shares and then 6,000, I’m really only risking about $.10-$.15. I’m risking about $600 and then $1,500 maybe at most and then profit was $3,200. That was kind of worst case scenario of a green trade because it didn’t really work out as well as I hoped it would.

Again that’s a really good profit/loss ratio. That was my first and second trades of the day and that was all I did in the main account. At 2,500 bucks here in this account and that actually makes up for almost all of Friday’s loss, which is good. My Friday’s loss was in the main … Actually, no. Now I can’t remember. Yeah, Friday’s loss was in the main account. I got my calendar here. Yeah, actually I didn’t even write it in the calendar. I’ll have to go back and check, but I was down about $3,000 on Friday minus 3.2K approximately and then today is the 222nd trading day of the year plus $1,281.68. All right.

It’s in the calendar. Here we go. Reminder everyone, tomorrow is election day. Okay. That’s all I did in the main account. All right. Then I’ve got the IRA. I close up the trade on PLAG and I’m like, “All right. I’m feeling a little momentum,” right? A nice big green trade. I went from red on the day back into the green by $3,800. Now I’m watching the scanners and let’s see. I’m going to reset the scanner for this morning. All right. Boom, boom, boom, boom. CLSD. Yup. PLAG. Yup. SCON hits the scanner. It hits the scanners, rips up. I’m looking at it and I’m like, “Okay. I just had a big momentum trade. It looks like the market’s starting to pick up.”

It squeezes up here and I jump in it. Now, yes. The truth is when you look at this, it’s easy for you to say, “Ross, you just jumped into a stock squeezing up. You didn’t wait for the pullback or anything like that.” In this instance, the trade didn’t work. However, what happens more often than not is they squeeze up like this. They get halted, which this did. It halted at 45 or no, sorry. It halted at 35 and I was in it at … I got a partial fill on this, where was my entry, at 35, 400 shares. I’m at 400 shares at 35, whatever. It then squeezes up, taps a high of 50, and I added at 47. I have a new cost basis of 44 or right around 40.

What typically happens is they squeeze up, they get halted, they open higher, and they make these kind of big parabolic moves. The daily chart the stock shows it has a good amount of room. 200 moving average is the level that I look at. I really thought this one had the look. The only thing it was missing was news. However, what I said earlier about the bite first, ask questions later, that’s kind of the mentality with a lot of momentum traders. You see something starting to take off and we often jump into it, and then we look and see what’s the catalyst, what’s causing it.

Sometimes these end up fading as this one did and other times they end up holding up pretty well, continuing higher. Being the stock that does go to $5, $6, $7 in one day, unknown news. It just starts to take off. Anyways, I’m in it with 400 shares. I add coming out of the hall looking at scalp from 50 up to 60, maybe 75. It immediately flashes down to $2.20. It drops down a little bit further at $2.14. I’m waiting for the first one minute candle to make a new high. My stop is now the low of the pullback. This candle doesn’t make a new high. It drops down and I stop out. I lost $843 on that trade. Really just so disappointing to have that happen in the IRA account.

I just can’t afford these types of losses and now this is my second pretty big red day in the IRA account. That’s SCON. While I’m in SCON, CHCI pops up and does the same thing. I’m like, “Okay. It’s another one taking off. I’m going to jump in it.” I jump in it as it squeezes up. I get filled at 79 with 2,000 shares right here and right here. It opens and drops back down to $2.50, right, $2.46. I lose 400 bucks on that one. Now this one ended up holding up and eventually going all the way back up to $3, but I followed the rules and stopped out.

Kind of disappointing to have those two stocks take off in the surge of momentum and just by the top and then gets stopped out of them. I mean it’s sort of the luck of the draw that sometimes that happens. Now what I want to do is I want to show you guys my, let’s see, my October statements here. I just uploaded my broker statements for the month of October. These are all posted now in the website. Oops. Let me just go back here. Okay. If you go to our website and you scroll down … What’s going on here? You scroll down to the very bottom, you’d see earnings and broker statements right here. All right? 2017, 2018.

I keep the last two years on here. All right? Anyways, October is right here. This is where I finished the month of October, $42,000 in net profits after commissions, which is great. This is net. Number of winning trades … I only took 102 trades. I figure 102 trades, it’s about 25 trades a week, right? 25 trades a week, four weeks out of the month, that’s a hundred trades. 25 trades a week, that’s about five trades a day. Five times five equal 25. 25 times four equals a hundred. Averaging about five trades a day with 73% accuracy in the month of October. That’s nice. That’s actually about 5% above average for me. That’s nice to see, 73%.

Nice little bump there. Average winning trade, 900 bucks. Average losing trade, 957. Profit/loss ratio dips a little down below the 1:1 ratio that we usually look for. It’s hard to do dots with this thing. Anyways, that’s a little bit disappointing. The one thing I wish maybe is that either I could have tightened up some of those losers or had more big winners. My biggest winner was 9,000 bucks. That’s nice. Biggest loser 3,400. I would say it just sort of looks like I had a lot ending up being small winners that brought down that average and maybe a couple of bigger losers.

Part of the other thing with the profit/loss ratio is since I only had 27 losers, a few bigger ones do bring up that average. Maybe if I had had more breakeven trades that were just minus $10 or something like that, those wouldn’t have been as bad. It would have brought my average back down. But anyways, commissions and fees. About $3,000 in fees, $1,700 in commission, so $4,800 in fees and commissions. I’d be up 4,600 if it weren’t for fees and commissions. They account for about 10% of my profit. Right around there, but this is just kind of a high level. Of all of these trades, I was doing a lot of things than what I did today on CHCI, SCON.

Today just happens to be a day where I was kind of on the wrong side of the momentum line. I’ve got my traditional margin trading account. This is my P&L and everything for the month. Now I’ve got my IRA trading account right down here, which was a $1,300 on the month. I made $400 and then lost $1,700 on that day. Disappointing there. Again to be red last month and be red again so far this month, also by about 1,200 … Well, yeah, it’s going to be about the same, $1,300. I got the rest of the month to turn it around, but just kind of showing you this so you guys get a sense of overall this method works really well.

Today’s a day where, you know, I’m a little below my accuracy target, but the profit/loss ratio is strong and that’s good. You guys are always welcome to review these. I’m one of the only traders out of there that post these types of broker statements. From $583.15 to a million dollars, I’m at $749,000 as of the end of October with $414,000 this year and $335,000 last year. This is probably going to be a challenge that carries me into 2019. We’ll have three years combined here, but it’s pretty exciting. You can go to 2017 to see the very beginning of the challenge, which was on SureTrader right here, Swiss America.

This was sort of where it all started. Let’s see. Here we go. I got to update this image. I don’t know why this is kind of a small version, but anyways, yeah, $41,000 of SureTrader before I moved the money out. I started trading into US broker. It’s been a pretty fun journey here and still about 25% left to go. 75% of the way there. Just a little update on that challenge and where it stands. I know a lot of you guys have gone back and watched on YouTube like the very first video in this challenge. Originally it was $583 to $100,000 and then once I crossed 100K in like a month and a half, I was like, “All right. What’s next?”

Let’s see. Let me search my videos here. Sort by most popular. Okay. All right. Many of you guys have seen this. 4.8 million views on the most popular one. Three videos above a million views right now, but this is the one. Day trading: Starting with $583 of SureTrader. This was day one of the Small Account Challenge. All right. There we go. I’ll post this. Check out video one from the $583.15 to $1 million challenge. All right. There we go. You’re welcome to check that out if you want. Really what I do today is no different from what I was doing almost two years ago at the very beginning of the challenge.

It’s really just starting with one trade each day, trying to get green. Build the momentum. Today I started red, but was able to get back on the second trade into the green. Taking a couple scalp trades, couple momentum trades, trying to keep the winners bigger than the losers and slow and steady wins the race. Add in a new scan here for a former low float MOMO stock. I’m going to test this out for a couple days and then if I like it, I’ll add it to the Warrior Pro classes for our students. All right. Anyways, that’s about it for me. I hope you guys have a great afternoon. I’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning 9:00-9:15 for pre-market analysis.

Hopefully we will have a couple of good stocks on the scanners. I can keep making a little bit of money. I’m going to have to wait until Wednesday again to trade in the IRA account, but whatever. Just going to try not to sweat that too much. Maybe I just need to wait on trading in that until we have like really official strong momentum. I’ve been kind of jumping the gun on it the last few times I’ve traded in it and obviously lost money. I’ll try to pull it back together with that account, but green is good. I have more money in my pocket than I had two hours ago. That’s always good progress. All right.

Anyways, that’s it for me. I’ll see you guys first thing tomorrow morning. Those of you watching on Facebook and YouTube, leave comments below. Give us a thumbs up if you like the videos and I’ll see you guys in the morning. All right. Bye, everyone.

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