Warrior Trading Blog

In & Out for +$3.5K! | Mike’s Trade Recap

Hey, good morning guys. Happy Monday, starting the week off on a great, great trade here, up 3,600 bucks on AMD on one trade which was really nice because coming into the open today we really didn’t have much to put on watch. There wasn’t many stocks out there that had that great of news.

So we were coming into the day thinking this may be a no trade day, but right before the open, we had AMD come out with some news that they were partnering with Samsung and that just sent the stock really moving higher on great volumes. So we focused in on this and waited for that precision entry. And once that presented itself, we were aggressive and took a nice win in the first few minutes of the day. So stick with me and we’ll take some time to recap this morning’s trade on AMD.

All right, good morning guys. Well, early end to the day here after a really solid trade this morning on AMD. We were able to lock up just under 3,600 bucks in a fairly short period of time basically on the opening drive. And really nice to see a win like this after, last week was pretty slow and just kind of choppy. I had a few wins, few small losses, ended slightly in the green with one good win that we had in the middle of the week. But it’s nice coming to the weekend. And the nice thing about today was that there really wasn’t anything in the premarket that had any interest to me. There was really nothing with significant news, at least by the time we made the watch list. So I was thinking that today probably be a no trade day. But as we got closer to the bell, some news hit on AMD that they’re partnering with Samsung and it really sent the stock higher, moving nicely on a lot of volume.

So at that point we threw AMD on the watch list and AMD is typically a good trader when it has volume in news. And you know that shows in the trade today, so up 3,600 on AMD. We’ll talk about how we traded this. Again, we initially were looking for AMD if the market were to fade here, if it broke below this 20 and 50 day. But what happened was is at right after nine o’clock when we made our premarket watch list, the news hit on Samsung and then it really ripped higher. So we started mapping out our levels for the upside. Few things we had going on here. If we compress this chart a little bit, you see that you have a big flag basically for me here over the last several sessions. So I said if we get above this, we can hold, we’ve got room to the next major trend line, which is gonna fall around 29 and then up above here around 30 bucks, which is a recent swing high.

All right, so go to the daily, I can see where these trend lines come from. This is the somewhat macro line that is descending resistance. All right? You can see starts up here back in September of 18, comes through here. You can see last couple of sessions we’ve actually rejected that trend line. So that’s why I liked it. If it could get above it and hold at least for the short term at the open of the market we could see a potential push higher. These trend lines are very important, especially the macro ones that line up well like this. A lot of traders, a lot of computers are going to be drawing these just because they’re so obvious and the stock will definitely react to them. Now you can see here we are reacting to it again. This is a heavy duty trend line and it’s definitely reacting to and if it closes back below, I would expect to see a little bit of a consolidation move. But if we get back above it then I would expect to see a move at least to 30 and then beyond.

So that was what we had on the daily. I was hoping to get it up above 30 bucks cause that’s where a real window started to open up. But we didn’t get that push mainly because the market wasn’t really in our favor. So that’s okay. We were able to get a nice trade out of this on the open and what we traded it off was the a fast time frame.

So let’s go to the fast timeframe. Talk a little bit about what we saw there. Now I was a little bit cautious on this one because you know it’s a long trade and 98% of my trades are short. And so you know, that alone that two long sides, not my sort of niche area. So I typically stay away from them unless they have a very specific set up. But AMD with the size of news that this had partnership with Samsung breaking through some pretty significant trend lines here, I wanted to keep a really close eye on the action because there was a potential trade here, especially with the volume, the price action this stock trades with. You can definitely get a nice trade on this if it resolves properly. So what I wanted to see is a little bit of a retest. I didn’t trade the opening move. What I ideally wanted to see is that that first pullback that we had on the fast time frame held, okay, so you can see we popped up, popped up here, we pulled, we started to move, but this pullback failed, right? We didn’t start to round back out.

So I waited a little bit longer. I was trying to wait to see it pivot above this macro trend line at 29 bucks. You can see we stopped there in the pre market, came back up, tried to pivot above it, but we didn’t really push through. So I waited a little bit longer, had a quick sell down below 29 touch view app. Then we had this move back up, a little pivot right here and then this move. All right, so I was looking at it in real time like this. And what this tells me right here is that dip buyers are here, they’re buying this heavily. Right. Volume coming in off the VWAP . They didn’t let it fade below the VWAP and they’re pushing back up through these last relative pivot highs. So I bought, as we were coming up through this level 2906, 2907, 2910. I took a pretty big position on this. I hit it with two 5K blocks right away as we were moving back through 29 and 2910 so I got a pretty big position on this. I was simply just looking for a high momentum move up through the highs up to like 2950 was kind of my target because of my position size.

So what we got on this was a nice resolution. I sold a bunch, I think I sold a third. As we hit in the 2930s, I sold more as we hit 2940s. Sold a little bit more as we came back down through 2940s and then I stopped once we broke this pivot in through here. So you can see that we put it in kind of the opening range pivot. We came back, we broke that. But then look where we consolidated right after we broke that.

All right. So we use that level. That’s the level I was using for my stop and it was above my break even. So that’s always nice. Now what happened here is once we kind of took out this 2917, 2916 level, I stopped the balance of my trade because I wanted to see it hold that, again because that was the spot where we broke that opening range move. So we held it a couple times, right? But then I stopped right there cause we did take it out and then I called it a day. I didn’t want to trade it again because the market now was completely disconnected.

All right, so this was simply guys a VWAP move that it came back, it held, we see that it pushed up through that really strong stock on big news. Lots of volume. You have to attempt it, right? You have to take a stab at this. And even if it didn’t work, this would have been a good attempt, right, a good attempt because these are the trades that typically work, especially when you get such a big reaction off of a critical level such as VWAP. So nice trade on that. I simply just waited for the pullback to happen. A little bit of consolidation to verify that, we did have people here that wanted to buy this stock and once that started to push up through these levels here back through 29 is when I took an attempt. And this could have very well just made another lower high here after the attempt and failed. But if it did that this, at most, would have been a 10 cent stop, and 500, 600 bucks lost. But it was well worth it because of the volume that was supporting it.

In addition to that, we also had the market actually moving up for us right out of the open. So that was a pretty big factor coming off the gap down. We were pushing back through this 275.50 pivot. So the fact that we had the market dipping Bot, which puts it in alignment with AMD, that definitely supported my thought process of, hey, you know what? We have the market in the alignment here. Let’s try a trade to see if we can get this to at least move for a few minutes and potentially get a trade out of AMD. And it worked out for the first five, maybe 10 minutes, this buy was holding up. But then we had the big turnover and that’s when I decided I’m not going to take another trade on AMD just because it’s totally against the market now. And the market was really weak.

You know, we’re down right now. The market was down pretty good at the open, but in the futures. But we’re sitting relatively flat on a stock that was so strong on AMD. I didn’t want to have that big disconnect because that’s hard to fight against. In markets below the 200 day, not seeing much trend here, we’re just kind of net sideways and again it makes it tough for stocks to move with momentum.

So you know, that was the spy again, you can see we had that in our favor right out of the open and that’s what really had me focusing on AMD to try to catch a move. albeit very short in the first few minutes of the day and we got it, made a nice move, got it up to basically highs up here, sold through this move and then stopped the balance.

So definitely a good day. Great way to start the week. My stop on this, just want to touch on that. My stop on this again would have been essentially if we didn’t hold 29. So if we popped up here, we started to push and let’s say I’m this bar here. Let’s say that we closed over 29. This is where I was getting in because we were pushing above 29, so let’s say that this bar here for some reason closed over 29 like it did, but the next bar came back down through 29, right? I would’ve sold, right? I would’ve sold, because that’s telling me that 29 is being rejected. There’s trendlines being rejected. I don’t want to be in it. But since we had continuation on the move after that bar, that’s where I added. Okay, stop still down here, right, on a breakthrough 29 so that’s why I said these are breakout or bail out scenarios. You’re kind of scalping in a sense this momentum, you need to make sure that this thing goes immediately. If it does, you need to get out.

And that goes if you’re trading large size as well. So something to keep in mind. You want to see it follow through right away. If it doesn’t, get out. So basically it could have looked like this situation right here. So if I were to try it right here as we were coming back up through 29 and we had this, I would have been out as soon as it broke 29 because you want to see that follow through because this is the first time you’ve had a dip on the stock. If the dip buyers are strong enough, they’ll easily push it to highs.

But you can see here it’s failing 29 so I didn’t take the trade there because I wanted a little more consolidation. And then once we had this consolidation we popped back up. This is where I tried it. And again, same situation, if it would have failed 29, I simply would have sold the position, probably lost 500 or 600 bucks. Well worth the risk reward on this. So good trade on AMD. Good job to you guys that were able to catch pieces out of the open and sitting tight for the price action. So we’ll get back at it first thing tomorrow morning.

Hey everyone, thanks for watching the videos. I’ll continue to make sure that all of the watch lists, as well as the recaps are available to all of you. Make sure you subscribe to keep up to date on what’s hot and what’s not in the market.