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Short Week, 100% Accuracy | Roberto’s Trade Recap

Roberto_5.31

What’s up, guys? Welcome to the Today’s Weekly Recap. And this week, it’s been a short week for the United States market because we only had four days. Monday was off due to holiday, and so four days only, and I had four trades of green. So let’s jump over my shoulder and let’s tackle the details of the trades that I took. And here we are, talking about this week and also kinda making a step back and looking to the overall month of May a little quick. So basically this week only ends and also coincides with the end of May. Right? So we had four days of trading this week, and I got a very nice 100% accuracy to end the month with.

So, in the end, the overall accuracy for the month has been 65.38% above my benchmark, my target, of 60% and profits, loss ratio has been 3.36:1 which is well above the 2:1 I look for, for my target. I took another total of 26 trades for the month, which is right and just slightly above one trade per trade. So that says a lot about how important it is to be selective and not, you know to be over trading by any means. So we are now into a very nice seven green trade streak, so I just hope to continue and to kind of roll-over this momentum to the end of June next week.

So that being said let’s jump into analyzing the trades from this week I got a couple of very nice winners that ended up resolving and giving me room to take profit through all my floor targets. So I usually take profits of 1.5:1 or one-third of my position or 2.5:1 for the second third and then I scale out in sixth to close my position my entire position for in 4:1 and at 6:1 profit loss ratio.

So that being said let’s jump in and analyze the first trade that I took it was on AMD. AMD was just very, very, very nice long trade. So let’s analyze what happened there. Why I ended up taking the trade where I took and basically how it ended up resolving, right? So first of all if you guys are not familiar with this, here it’s my trading view platform and here on the left, I have three-minutes chart that I use very actively for my trading. And then I have the ten minutes chart the top right and lastly I have I always keep an eye on the overall daily chart, which is here on the bottom right corner. Right?

So, what day are we talking about? We are talking about last Tuesday here, this is the daily candle. This big daily candle you see is exactly the one that we selected to potentially have a trade. So we have a gap up. We are gapping up at about 3 to 4 percent, which is really the minimum threshold that I see and that I’m eventually interested in taking a trade. So during pre-market, I always do my kind of due diligence. I’ve seen this very nice, very well established, short term, trend line. That’s the one I ended up kind of having here very well designed, very well drawn on the chart. And so it will be reflected also in the dailies. You can see it’s up here at about 28.50, 28.40.

So I wasn’t too much concerned about that resistance just because compared to where the market price was going to be for this stock we were really below it. This gray area is pre-market. The pre-market we can very, very quickly see and visualize where the actual high of the pre-market was and was here 27.38. So if you know a little bit about my strategy. I really, really don’t want to initiate a position when we are trading below the pre-market highs for a long or above the pre-market lows for a short. So, that’s 90% of my trades happen either above the pre-market high’s for a long or below the pre-market low’s for short, right? That’s what really helps me having that accuracy really high and the risk also under control.

So with that being said. What did I see? First of all, as you may notice here this is a three-minute chart, right? So, we have the first three-minute candle. Actually, it was opening here at about 27.25, and it starting selling off. And as usually I never take a position during the three-minutes, and I just wait to see where the overall trend is going to eventually go for a break out or a breakdown if the setup is right. For me, for the setup to be really, really the one I’m looking for I am looking here, even down here where I have my divergence indicator that I custom coded and built for the platform.

And long story short when it’s telling me that it’s not here really on the red, but it’s still on the green or even on the low part of the yellow area here I can look for a potential continuation, right? So, we are both above the pre-market high and still not too much overextended here from this orange line, which is the 13 EMA here on the three-minutes. This yellow line is the 13 EMA coming from the 10 minutes just plotted here, into the three-minutes as well. This is the line, which view up, right? So everything was basically lighting up here and so I went ahead and jumped in at 27.54 for a long, right? 27.54 was actually a little before, even before getting this very, very nice continuation.

So my stop would have actually, been right here about where the 13 EMA was at the time, so it would have given me no more than fifteen, twenty cents margin of error to eventually stop out if this thing would have not given continuation, but eventually, it actually did, and it start pushing very hard. It ended up going all the way to my last target here, which we see is a 6:1 profit loss ratio. But it was still below the next level of resistance. So, for me, it was really a no brainer as you can see clear over here even though the move even continues later on. For me the trade this one traded, three-minutes over range trade ended up finding that it’s solution, it’s last cover, here at 28.39. So, I ended up taking the first third of a position here 27.75 then 27.79, then 28, then here are, then closing the full position for a very, very profit, very nice trade here on AMD.

So, as we can see there would have been other opportunities this year to eventually play even here in the afternoon a continuation based upon the ten minutes. So are they saying not to take it? But some other traders into the chat room, you know other Warrior Members ended really banking even on this continuation in the afternoon, very nice job, very nice trade.

So, that’s basically it. You know briefly for AMD, very nice way to start the week, built up very nice cushion there and then we had a GOOS, G-O-O-S. The next day and it was you know, and it was much, much fun once again. It ended up being a short trade, so it went short, betting for the price to continue going down, and we got a very nice resolution as well and in this case, once again, we had multiple possibilities for actually getting an even continuation, but for me once I’ve done the first very nice straight I was, basically done with my trade.

So let’s enable here,[inaudible 00:11:20] high and low just to show you guys what I actually was seeing back then. So when I’m in a gap down, and this is the actual daily candle first on the bottom right corner. As you can see we had a very nice gap on earnings, which is one of my favorite catalysts. And so we had decent, already a very nice pre-market volume here. And so I was looking for it to eventually continue down, so at 40 here at this level, a little bit above 40 we had this alignment here with this daily pivot so we can actually draw it a little quick.

Here it goes. And so look at how very nicely this was aligned with the pre-market lows, so I pretty much knew that if we were able to push below it and kind of confer this thing had very nice probabilities to continue going low, even lower, in a very, very, steep move. And that’s what ended up happening. So we can actually do a buy replay here, I think it’s a very nice, and it’s a very good tool to be using. Especially when reviewing your trades so, we can pretend we don’t know what, what’s actually happened after that. And so we can play bar by bar what ended up actually getting.

So here we can see the first candle after the market opened. So gray once again in the background, extend the session both after hours the day before, and pre-market the day after and boom we have the first three-minutes here. As you can see we had a kind of a push right before the market opened, but it did go against the 13 EMA 10 minutes ended up failing and starting selling off. When it started selling off like this and the first three-minutes really close here at the lows below the pre-market, basically at the pre-market lows and below the daily import level we saw. So I knew pretty much that if we were able to push even farther down below that we would have had possibilities for the price to go even lower. So that’s the next three-minutes, boom, that’s the one I got involved in.

As soon as we open we have a micro-push and then we start the selling. As soon as we start the selling I just push the sell button and I got field of 40.06 and then you can see here that I was right away looking for a continuation below the low. This kind of setup are really, for me, are kind of break-up or bailout. They have to work out pretty much right away in an extra minute, you have to see some sort of continuation, otherwise, it just means that there is maybe just too much support that I haven’t actually foreseen. And so for me, it’s not even worth taking the risk.

This orange line here is actually the 52-weeks low, usually, I take this one level, very high consideration. In this case, we can see from the daily here, it wasn’t really representing a big deal because it was just a micro-level here for almost exactly one year ago. So, in that case, 52-week lows there was right below my potential entry, but it was still at basically my second target. I wasn’t really too much concerned about it, and so long story short I went short and this thing as we can see here just started resolving and continued resolving incredibly nice. I was three-quarters of my position so at five-sixth of my position off and by the time we got here at 37.82 it was basically only, not even twenty minutes into the trade. Fifteen minutes into the trade and we were already touching all of my targets, so incredible, incredible trade here once again. Back to back winner that ended up just resolving as nicely as AMD did just the day before.

So goes just to show you guys actually happening to continue you going down here it’s very visible at 10 minutes, basically for the whole day. So this thing went down all the way into the close so even though I was able to catch just partial piece of the move it was still plenty, plenty of gains, and especially if you consider the risk-reward ratio. That’s what really is important to me and that should be also important to most, to basically any trader, but this goes to show that even if you don’t take the full advantage of the Bull you can still make it through, and you can still have a very, very nice, nice resolution, nice trades.

Next day we have PBH and PBH just has [inaudible 00:18:28] well WSM today will be even shorter talking about this because we didn’t have as much resolution, and as you can see that as you can see the overall kind of setup was similar to what we had on GOOS. Look at this, PBH was gapping down into earning and we had a pretty much alignment with this 86.60 pre-market, sorry daily pivot here and also we had a pre-market low here pretty well defined at 87.82.

So as usually I don’t get involved into shorting here until we take out the previous pre-market lows so as soon as the market opens this thing started selling off and then I waited. I waited for the three-minutes bear flag and I went in right here on this one bear flag. So I was ready to take my trade here because my attention was all the way focused on this thing and so as soon as we had here the three-minutes low I took a three-minutes continuation trade. So I got filled at basically 87.15 here and the low of this three-minutes candle and this thing just flushed. This thing just flushed right away, and it didn’t fill me here, and my first target at 86.29. 86.29 here was actually my first target because my stop would have been here and the high, around the high of this candle and also the high of the same flag.

I didn’t really want it, soon as I jumped in I knew I didn’t want this thing to go back above here or back at the high of this one flag and so this thing flushed. It fills me on the first target and then, boom, as you can see it got bought right back up and then whenever that happens I’m really not feeling good about the price section. And so I just jump out and break even the rest and just move on eventually waiting for our reset up. But because of the way that this thing really jumped here I was wasn’t really willing to give it another extra, extra shot, which ended up not being the best kind of call to make because you see at the 10 minutes we have a very nice continuation all the way here into the afternoon.

So if that’s a lesson to learn from me, is to really to trust the technicals [inaudible 00:22:04] even you know the 10 minutes chart, and if this thing continued to hold the yellow line here, which is the 13 EMA at the 10 minutes, which it basically did all the way to the 84.50 I could have locked in a much bigger trade than I did. On the other, hand my way of being pretty conservative and trusting my instincts and to reading price action is, is also giving me very good numbers. So that’s my take there. Whenever you look into modifying your approach, just make sure you don’t go ahead change the whole foundation of your trading. Go little by little, maybe test it before eventually modify anything on your trading.

So the last trade here was WSM was today, was gapping up once again into earning, guys earning season is as I always say by far my favorite, and so let me just close the window cause there is too much noise coming. All right, and so, as I was saying, WSM we had a pretty much similar set up than we had on AMD. So we were gapping up this case into earning and we were coming off of this descending line here. This descending line elected because as soon as we pushed above here this line as well the pre-market, sorry the 200 SMA, which is the green line here from the daily. We pretty much had room all the way to potentially 60.50, 61, but that’s the thing about trading. We never have, basically hundred percent of probability of success so no matter we hard we work into trying to find and to spot all those levels there is always an opportunity that a trade doesn’t go as fore planned.

But with WSM we had nice consideration after the gap up here and I had this low here also at 56.50. I wasn’t too much interested, to be honest with you with the continuation with the gap up fade because we had here this purple line, which is the 100 SMA from the daily and this red line, which is the 20 MA from the daily. So, considering all of this I wasn’t too much interested into the short side. I was more interested in the pre-market highs and so also above this green line over here, which is the 200 SMA from the daily, to eventually go along.

And so long story short, the market opens. We can go again this very nice exercise with the bar replay cause it can be very educational for, you know also for you guys. So the first candle here after the market opened was this guy. So this candle here is a candle indecision. You can see the weak part of the candle is bigger than the body, that means that there is still indecision. But in any case, since that was more biased we eventually we take out a long and not a short because of what I explained about the support level being too close the price. I would have been eventually interested to take out three-minutes open range break out if on the next candle we had a push here back into this 58.50 area. So basically that’s what happened next. The next candle opened, it flushed a little bit and then it started pushing, pushing hard, and that’s when I bought.

I bought my entry here at 58.54 here and I would have had my stop basically 50 cents to 60 cents lower, right? At about 58, 57.90, 5, 58 area [inaudible 00:27:34] right where 200 SMA and then all the support were actually in. So technically it was a very nice entry, as you enter here the breakout point and you have your stop, basically where all the support is coming here into help. So we have the 13 EMA at 3 minutes the view up, the 13 EMA at 10 basically older.

So I was looking to take my profit at about 59.50, which ended up hitting here shortly after. Look we had a retest and then, boom, this thing started pushing once again. It took my first piece of a 59.50’s actually and we had a high of 59.64 and look at this point. Everything, guys, everything was looking bullish. We had still decent volume, a little bit descending, but still pretty high volume and then we just had a kind of nothing happening. Instead of seeing this one kind of continue and going higher we just had all of those buyers disappearing, so that leaves me thinking is that this thing was a short squeeze that caused that to move higher but there just weren’t too many buyers convinced to buy in to continue to push this thing higher. So I ended up stopping the rest as for my strategy at the break even, actually three cents higher, 58.57.

And you can see pretty much why I actually ended up doing so because this thing failed to push and then it just didn’t do anything actually. It didn’t even go farther down below and so for me, it was just, it was just okay to take my first, my first partial here at 59.50 on the first push. And then just being okay with my day being very nice overall once again with my week and so that you know you can go and definitely enjoy the weekend as well. So I hope you guys could learn something out of this. I look for forward for you to, to eventually push the like button and showing me some love so that I can keep on going with this series as well as I would be looking to answer all of your questions in the comments. So I just want to thank you guys for joining and I’ll see you back in the Warrior trading chat room first thing Monday morning.

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