Warrior Trading Blog

Stuck in a Cold Streak -$1,861 | Ross’ Trade Recap


All right, everyone. Well, shutting it down here. I was actually green at 10:30. I said I was shutting it down. I walked away, I came back, looked at the laptop, saw FRSX was about to break high of day. As soon as it broke, jumped in, 2.89. Expecting immediate resolution, break over 2.95, 2.98, $3, 3.10, 3.20. I thought it would take off and it dropped right back down to 2.55 and just like that I gave back the 1,400 I made this morning and went into the red making this the fourth red day of the week. This has been the worst week that I’ve had in terms of just accuracy in, actually, I don’t know, I’m not sure how long it’s been. But cold streaks happen and that’s part of trading. We’ve hot streaks, we have called streaks, we have ups, we have downs.

Right now obviously on a little bit of a pullback, a little bit of a down, but had such a great day yesterday finish with $7,400 of profit. Feel good about that. Yeah, I gave back a little today, but I’ll be back at it on Monday morning looking for momentum and hopefully we start to see some action in the market. You know what’s going to take to really get the momentum back? A three, 400% move or something to just explode to go from two to $8 and just really go crazy. So I can’t wait for it to happen. I’m just looking forward to that type of volatility. Something that’s really exciting, but maybe a few more days, a few more weeks before it happens. So have to be patient, have to be a little bit more conservative. But although today’s a red day, it’s not a blowout. It’s not a max loss and I feel good about that. Live to trade another day. Be back at it on Monday morning.

All right, everyone. So we’re going to do our recap here today. This was a green day up until about a minute ago. Took a trade on FRSX for the break over $3 and we got this big false breakout right here. I got in as soon as it broke over high of day. I was looking for the high of day break. Jumped in, aggressive on share size. Really haven’t seen a lot of times where we saw this type of setup where we broke through the highs and we didn’t really open up. So I felt really confident that this was going to squeeze right through 3, 3.10, 3.25 was my target and then look at this, candle drops from 2.94 down to $1.56. Pops back up here. I got out and just like that, went from being up 1,400 on the day to being down 1,800 which makes it the fourth red day of the week.

It’s not easy. I’m going to be really glad that June is in the books here today. Just not easy at all. This type of thing has been very typical. Lots of false breakouts. This stock this morning, in fact maybe I should’ve expected it would do this because we had a false breakout here and a false breakout here. This is such an obvious setup for a break through the highs. It only broke the highs by nine cents, despite 1.3 million shares of volume, only made high of day by nine cents or maybe 10 cents. I mean, just it really wasn’t able to open up. My first trades on it this morning where down in this area and I actually traded it pretty well. I had a total of five trades on it. I was green on four, three out of the five I guess including now this red trade. But started scalping it in this area. We had a couple nice pullbacks here and here.

But as you can see, this didn’t really sustain very well, which was really disappointing. Just generally, I don’t know, 18 million share float stock, a little crowded, 14 million shares of volume. I would’ve been pretty happy 20 minutes ago just to be like, “You know what, I made $1,400 on that one and a green day.” But unfortunately I went in for that one extra trade. The good news is that again, even though it’s a red day, this is a small red day. I’m not below max loss. I’m just giving back a little bit of profit and we’re just continuing to be in that chop while we wait for the market to really open up, while we wait for those A quality setups. This is the one that I think everyone was focusing on today. 14 million shares of volume, up nearly 100% but despite that it, as you can see, has had several high volume red bars and has now done sort of the final big rejection, ugly move here, which was really disappointing.

So it’s been a tricky week. The last two weeks in fact have been tricky. Pretty rare for me to have this type of slow patch. It happens from time to time. The last one was in March and then I made well over $100,000 between March and here in June. Then we came up here on a two week slow patch. So last two weeks have been slow. But the good news is when the market’s slow, there’s only one place it can go and that’s back into a hot streak. Yes, you can have a slow period, lasts for a couple of weeks, sometimes it’ll last for a full month. It’s a great opportunity to study. If you can be profitable during a slow period, you’re going to be exceptionally profitable during the hot streak.

The hardest part is during a slow period, you just see that … Have the tendency to go ahead and take trades like this type of set up knowing that this set up in a hotter market would have worked 99% of the time, even in the cold market, they typically work. So in any case, you get a little more aggressive. You’ll see your accuracy drops dow during a cold streak. I’ve sometimes had traders ask me, “Ross, why do you adjust share size between hot streaks and cold streaks? Why don’t you just always trade with the same share size knowing your daily average would just be consistent?” What I try to do is I try to bring down share size during cold streaks and then increase share size during hot streaks to minimize the losses and to maximize the profits.

The challenge is that it’s tricky sometimes to know when to adjust those levers of share size and max loss and sometimes you don’t make the right decision and you continue a cold streak on big share size and then you finally bring it back down and then a hot streak begins and you’re trading with small size for the first couple of days and you really minimize your opportunity. You don’t maximize it. So I’m a little bummed out today that I went from being green on the day to being red, but I would trade that setup any day of the week, a break of over high of day on a stock up this much. I mean, it’s a really good quality setup. It’s just unfortunate that we’re in a market where even those types of setups haven’t been falling through well.

But I don’t regret taking the trade. I would definitely take it again if I saw it again and being aggressive is how I turned $583 into a million bucks. You don’t do that without being aggressive and it’s the way I’m going to turn the million and to two million. I’m already more than 10% of the way there. So sitting at about $1.15 million of profits in the small account, $2 million is the next stop. So it’ll happen. This week won’t be a big contributor to it, but when the market does pick back up, I’m going to step up to the plate. I’m going to be aggressive and hopefully we’ll have a couple of really big green days during the next hot streak. We need a stock to just go crazy. FRSX up 100% that’s nice. It’s not bad. CETX yesterday up about 150%. That’s not bad either.

We need something to go up a little bit more than that. We need something to really open up a two, three, 400% move, RKDA, BSPM, BPTH, something like that is what typically starts the next round of momentum. So I’m waiting for that stock. Can’t wait for it. But have to be patient. So I’ll be back at it first thing Monday morning. Fingers crossed that we get some momentum. All right, see you guys then. If you’re still watching, you must’ve really enjoyed that video. So why not subscribe and get email alerts anytime I upload new content? Remember when you subscribe, you become a member of the Warrior Trading family.