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Trade Recap: Blah Day -$14.28

blah day

What’s up, everyone? All right, so here we are, fourth day of June, and today is basically a flat day. Finishing the day down $14. So I only took two trades, one winner, 100 bucks, and one loser, $114. So these are really small numbers. Today is a day where just not a lot happened.

 

I had one small win and one small loss, and then I was done for the day. So we’re in a market right now, and I’ll talk about this in the midday recap where it’s kind of $500 to $1,000 a day market. This is not a market where we’re seeing or where I’m seeing $5 thousand back to back to back to back. That was something we saw maybe like a month ago, back in early May. And we saw it in early April.

But right now, things are a little bit choppy. So what’s really important is being able to adapt. Instead of trying to step up to the plate and swing for the fences, that’s not going to work right now. Right now, you’ve got to just try to get on first base and get that small winner. Because those base hits, they add up. So right now, I’m up $26 hundred on the week. As long as I finish the week in the green, I’m going to be happy.

I don’t need to make $10 thousand this week because I know when the market heats back up and we start seeing those big opportunities, the winners are going to stack up really quickly. So right now it’s just kind of about being sheltered from the storm, keeping as much water out as possible, trying to stay afloat, and when we get to the other side, things will be good. All right, so let’s break it all down in today’s midday market recap.

What’s up, everyone. All right so we’re going to do our midday market recap, go over the trades from today. This ended up being a pretty slow day of trading, which is kind of nice. We get a lot of really busy days where it’s just slamming orders left and right, and so a little bit of a slow day is kind of a break, even though it’s certainly not what I was expecting. It’s actually it’s kind of nice. So this morning was sort of interesting because on our gap scanners, we really only had like two obvious stocks.

And on the one hand, that’s good because we want to trade stocks that are obvious and are predictable. And on the other hand, it was a problem because the two obvious ones really weren’t … They weren’t as good as I’d like.

They weren’t really A-quality set ups. So I didn’t end up taking trades on either of them. And it kind of just meant that I had a little bit of a slower start to the day. In fact, I didn’t take my first trade today until 10:30, which is totally rare for me. Usually, I’m takin that first trade in the first 10, 15 minutes. So just a little bit of a weird day, but I’m going to finish the day down $14.28. I’m still up 26 hundred on the week and so I am happy for that. So let me show you my PNL here today.

So here’s the $14.28 of losses. Just for the record keeping, I would of liked to have been green today because I like green days more than red days. Although, obviously $14 is irrelevant. It doesn’t mean anything. I mean, it’s just such a small day that it could be just as easily green 14, and it really wouldn’t matter either way. But when I go back and look at my calendar, this will show as a red day. So, whatever. Not that big of a deal.

The good news is that I was able to respond to market conditions and not try to swing for the fences. So one of the things I said this morning in our pre-market watch list was that right now, we’re in a market that feels like $500 to $1,000 is the kind of daily goal. That’s what’s realistic. $500 to $1,000 a day, that’s the type of market we’re in.

Three weeks ago, we were in a $5 thousand dollar a day type of market. And that was awesome. I mean, it was fantastic. I made $75 thousand in two weeks of trading. But those markets don’t last forever. And so one of the things that’s really hard is that when you’re in a $500 to $1,000 a day type of market, it’s hard to be okay with that. And so I was talking with one of my friends over the weekend and he’s a surfer. And he said, “Bro, you got to ride the wave you’re on, not the wave you want to be on.”

And I was like, “All right, I hear what you’re saying. I guess that’s true.” Because with trading, there’s that feeling of you want it to be a $5 thousand day. But if it’s not a $5 thousand day it’s not a $5 thousand day. And you can’t force it. And if you try to force it, you’re going to get yourself into trouble and that’s what’s happened to me a lot in the past. I’ve tried to make $500 days $5 thousand days, and that’s when I end up getting slammed. I end up taking big losses.

I’m pushing way too hard in the wrong market. And it gets me into trouble. So the last couple days, I’ve been trying to embrace that we are in a $500 to $1,000 a day market. And even though I’d love to be making 5, 10 thousand. This isn’t the right market for that type of trading. I can’t be that aggressive right now.

So if I can really embrace that, then during these slower periods of the market, I can just grind on 500 a day instead of taking 15 thousand shares and trying to make 45 hundred bucks, I can take 5 thousand and get my quick 10 cents and be up $500. And that’s a lot easier. Just capture that 500 and be done for the day. Because all those little $500 days, they do add up. Absolutely. And then, by the end of the week or the end of the month, you’re up $5, $10, $15 thousand, which sure is a lot better than being in the red. Even if just for confidence, even if you’re not even worried that much about the money, just from a confidence perspective, it’s nice to have green days.

So this morning, our leading gapper was AXON, and the problem for me with this gapper was the fact that it was two problems. Number one, by the time I saw it, and this was at like 9:15 that I ran the scan, it already had 7.3 million shares of volume. That’s an incredible amount of volume. And then, number two, the float was 32 million shares, which as a little bit higher. So initially I just kind of thought, “I don’t know. This isn’t really what I would go for.” Typically these types of stocks can be a lot choppier, so you already saw this really clean move pre-market. And I just did not expect to see it continue being this clean.

The bell rang and you can see it. It really wasn’t. It was much choppier once the bell rang. It popped up, and the first entry that I was watching was along over the pre-market highs. So right out of the gates, it actually broke the pre-market highs. It broke this little flag pattern here. Let’s see, what’s this one? I’m going to mute that. So it broke this little flag pattern here at 368, and it popped up to a high of 380. So a nice 12 cent pop up to here, but then it immediately faded and dropped all the way down to 337. So it didn’t hold up very well, which wasn’t surprising.

It then ended up doing a red to green move and surging up, which was nice. It did this little consolidation, which we were watching, and then I was sort of tempted to take a trade over 390, and I hesitated because this area of consolidation was so choppy. And of course, the open was so choppy. But it ended up working and it squeezes up here. So I ended up just missing it and not being able to read the level two very well.

Currently, it has 56 million shares of volume, which is a lot of volume. And I just didn’t find it easy to read the tape on this. The tape is the time and sales right here where you see every order that goes through. And usually, I’m pretty good at reading this, but on a stock with this amount of volume, I guess I’m not as good at it.

So anyways, no trades on AXON. And since that was the leading gapper, this is kind of where all the attention was. This is what everyone was focusing on. The second leading gapper was CLRB. But I didn’t really like this one that much because the pre-market chart was already showing weakness. It had popped up and then it had sold off. And so that to me was weak. So I wasn’t interested in this.

The bell rang and it just continued to fade. Not a lot. It’s down like 20 cents. But it’s just continued to fade. Next one was VBLT. So these scanners, they’re searching the entire market for stocks that are gapping up more than 5%. And this morning, there were only, in the entire stock market, the entire US stock market, there were only this many stocks gapping up actually more than 4%.

So it’s a very short list. I mean, really we’ve honed down from 15 thousand stocks to trade down to maybe 30. And then we can pretty quickly narrow down this list even more. I start with the top gappers and just kind of check them off one by one. I go through my checklist and AXON, off the list pretty much. CLRB, no go. VBLT, this one is a 5 cent tick stock. That means it trades in 5 cent increments.

So you see here, 270, buy 275. That’s how it trades. So this is not one that I would want to day trade. So no trades on VBLT. It’s a very slow mover. All right, IFON, that was the next one down. This one stands out to me because the float is 1.6 million shares, that’s a very low float. But the pre-market volume was a little low. Only 18 thousand shares. Gapping up 16%, that’s not a lot.

But I said I would watch it over the pre-market highs. That was 430. The bell rang and it just kind of faded down. So no trade, no opportunity, didn’t hit my trigger. All right, so nothing there. So sitting here, hanging out for awhile, waiting for trades, not seeing anything. Had some tech issues at the open. Was trying to log in. I was getting kicked off. I switched from my wireless to my mobile hotspot. Which I’m actually still on. And that didn’t seem to fix it. Eventually got myself reconnected and up and running with Light Speed. I think there was some connectivity issues this morning there. But the first trade I took ended up being on OGEN, O-G-E-N.

So OGEN was kind of interesting. News was posted in the chatroom this morning and it was called out on Benzinga, which is one of the news services that we use. And there was some patent headlines. So I jumped in this one at $1.55, and I actually kind of … I took 75 hundred shares at 57, 58, 59. And it popped up, but then it kind of looked a little weak, and I was like, “Oh, I’m not actually sure I like this.” And so I sold half at 63, which was like 4 cents profit. And then I tried to sell another half, and I ended up getting filled at 53. So I ended up taking a loss of five cents. And so basically at that point I was breakeven on the trade.

And then it pops up to 73, and I was like, “Gosh darn it. All right, I should have just held the whole thing.” But right now is not a market to be super aggressive in, and so I was very quickly like, “I got to ease up on this position.” I’m a break out or bail out trader. It’s got to either break out or bail out, and so in this case, it ended up getting me out a little early and then it ended up popping. I added back at 68 thinking it would maybe squeeze up again, and sold at 72 and then 62. So total profit only 100 bucks. Not a very big winner. All right, so that’s about it on that one. It didn’t end up holding up very well. Gave it opportunity for a second flag to break out, but that didn’t happen. So it’s just kind of faded from here.

It was worth a stab, but it didn’t really work. So that’s OGEN, 100 bucks. Could have been a $500 winner if I’d held the whole thing from 58 to 68 or 70, but I just wasn’t totally sure and the volume was pretty light on it, so I decided to ease up my risk pretty quickly. So that was OGEN. Next one was [GEVO 00:13:00], and this is one of those ones that’s tricky because here at 1030, it pops up from $4 … Actually, from 380 to 440, and then it taps 470. When I first saw it hit the scans, I pull it up and I’m like, “It’s very interesting. It’s very tempting. But the volume is very light, and I’m concerned that if I get into this here, I’m going to get myself into trouble.”

And so I initially hesitated. And I watched it, the half dollar of 450, and I almost pressed the buy button, and then I didn’t, and then it hits 470 and it’s halted on a circuit breaker. It resumes and squeezes all the way up to 540. And I ended up taking 100 shares at 540. Got partial fill. It’s actually good I got a partial fill, because when it resumed, it halted, and then when it resumed it came all the way back down. I bought at $5 on the drop thinking that it was going to drop and pop right back up, held through the pullback, and then it ended up stopping out breakeven right here.

And that was definitely the right … Well, breakeven, down $114, basically breakeven. And that was the right move because it ended up fading from there. So this was kind of disappointing. I think it was worth a stab, but it just it didn’t hold up. And I bought it too high. If I’d gotten in at the very beginning of the move when it first hit the scanners, I know some of you guys did, I would have done better, but that would have been a little riskier. In hindsight, which is riskier? Buying early without confirmation on a very low volume stock? Or chasing it and buying it higher knowing that now you have confirmation because the volume is coming in?

So it’s kind of not sure which one is better. In the past, I’d usually jumped on these very quickly. As soon as it hits the scanners, I’m jumping in. And I guess that would have worked if I’d gotten in at 450. It squeezed up to 350 … Or 550. But we’re not in a market where I felt comfortable being that aggressive. So being a little more conservative right now. I’ve been waiting for kind of that extra confirmation, and that means I’ve been getting in a little higher. Yeah, and that’s a really good point. SOFO, I almost did it. I almost punched the order at 290 because it popped up, it hit the scans. I was like, “Okay, think looks interesting.”

And then I was like, “Hold up, wait a second, let’s let it prove itself.” And then it came all the way back down. I mean, this thing totally was ugly. It hit 290, and then a minute later it was at 240. So you’re right, this is an example where I would have taken probably a big loss by just jumping in. And GEVO’s and example of where I guess I would have made money just jumping in. And so the question is what’s your percentage of success? What are your odds? And right now, I feel like we’re in a market where I can’t afford to be that aggressive. And it cost me pretty badly last Friday where I got aggressive and I got stopped out off a couple trades.

So that’s why this week I’ve been a little bit more conservative and being down $14 is … I almost said 14 hundred, because being down $14 is just such a small amount. I rarely would be saying it, but it’s fine. It’s good. It’s a small loss, keep those losses small and be back at it tomorrow and hopefully we’ll see some good follow through, good opportunities, and I’ll be able to hit the $500 $1,000 a day goal. This year, I’ve actually been averaging close to $3 thousand a day, which is pretty incredible. I’m sitting right now at $264 thousand on the year. And it’s no doubt been a great year, but there’s going to be hot streaks, there’s going to be cold streaks, there’s ups and downs, and you got to be able to ride the wave you’re on, not the wave you want to be on.

So that’s the challenge and that’s an emotional battle. It’s not really … I mean, it’s skill if you consider mastering your emotions to be a skill, and maybe it is. But it’s really a kind of … It’s in your head. That’s the challenge. We can sometimes all be our own worst enemy. And when it comes to trading, I can teach you guys the skill to trade. You go through our 90 day Warrior Pro course, and you’re going to have the skill to trade. But what you need to master are the emotions. And so one of the things that we of course do is we have all of you guys trading in the simulator, because when you trade in the simulator, you’re able to practice the strategies that you’re learning without risking real money.

So you’re able to go through hot markets and cold markets and see what the ups feel like, see what the downs feel like, and test your strategy. Prove that you have what it takes to be profitable. For me, when I got started trading, I spent two years of trial and error trying to figure it out on my own. And that’s something you guys just don’t have to go through. If you want to try to go and invent your own strategy of how you’re going to trade the markets, you’re more than welcome to do it. But it took me two years to figure it out.

It’s like if you want to go try to reinvent the light bulb, you can do that, but how many times did Thomas Edison fail before he finally got it? How many times years did he spend struggling before he finally figured it out? That’s kind of what it’s like to try to develop your own strategy trading. The reality is a lot of traders out there, they’re all trading a derivative of a momentum strategy if they’re a momentum trader. And that’s what we teach. There’s certainly some traders who focus on counter trend trading, shorting strong stocks and buying weak stocks, that’s a little bit of a more difficult strategy that we do teach, although we don’t teach it in our beginner class. We teach it in our more advanced classes.

And Mike trades it on higher price stocks. But the point is, you guys don’t have to spend two years of trial and error. You can start practicing a strategy right now that I’ve proven as profitable over years of trading experience and historical data. You start practicing in the simulator, and then once you’ve been trading here for a month, two months, and you’ve got your metrics, and you can justify, “Okay, I’m profitable here.” That’s when you switch over and you start trading with real money. So that’s basically our goal for you guys is that you’re able to make the transition from beginner trader to profitable trader in as short of time frame as possible. That you don’t have to go through the 12, 18, 24 months of trial and error that I had to go through.

And like I said, that emotional kind of challenge is getting over that hurdle is a big thing for a lot of traders. A lot of students will trade in the simulator for months, and then they trade with real money, and all of the sudden it’s like now the emotions kick in because you’re dealing with real loss, like real ups and real downs. And so one of the things that I always say is when you flip the switch and you go to trade with real money, you change your share size. You go in here to trading and you say, “My max share size is 100 shares. Or 101 shares. I can’t take positions bigger than that.”

And that way, you’re trading not to make money really. You’re trading to prove a concept. To prove that the strategy works with real money. The incredible thing is once you’re consistently making $20 a day, or $50 a day, the only difference between making that $50 to $100 a day and making $500 and $1,000 a day is your share size. So once you start stepping up your share size, that’s when the profits start to increase. But of course, you’re not going to feel confident stepping up your share size until you’ve proven that you can be profitable in the simulator and then you’ve proven you can be profitable with real money with like 100 or 200 shares.

So it’s a process. It’s a 90 day class that you guys are in, and then after that, it’s that process of building up your tolerance, building up your confidence and that comes with experience. So right now, we’re in a couple … Seems like a couple weeks of sort of slower markets, which is a great opportunity for you guys to practice. If you can be profitable in the choppy market, you’re in really great shape. Because then when the hot markets come, you’re just going to be really banking the profits. So hot markets will come. They will be here before you know it. So this is a good time to study up, make sure your skills are sharpened and you’ll be able to capitalize on it when it comes.

All right, so anyways, that’s about it for me today. Today’s the 101st trading day of the year. Down $14. No big deal. Up still 26 hundred on the week, or 25 hundred 85 or whatever it is. Close enough. 26 hundred. So good week right now, and that thousand dollar a day average, $500 a day average, that keeps a job away. So feeling good about that. All right, everyone, so I’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning, 9:00, 9:15 for pre-market analysis.

Those of you guys watching on YouTube, watching on Facebook, if you’re learning something on these videos, love for you to subscribe, give us a thumbs up, throw in the comments what you’ve learned, throw in the comments questions you have and we’ll come back through and answer them later. I read all those comments, so we will come back through and answer them later. All right, everyone, I’ll see you all first thing tomorrow morning.

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