Warrior Trading Blog

Two Weeks Worth of Trading | Roberto’s Weekly Trade Recap

Roberto_7.12

All right, guys. Roberto here. I just got back from the exciting week that I spent with Ross, basically trading right next to him. And so we are just back to our regular weekly trading recap. I’m actually going to include the trades from last week and the trades from this week. So as you guys may know, we are of course in the summertime which is also kind of this lowest in terms of the number of opportunities we see. And we’re also outside of the earnings season, which are going to be back later next week. So I’m excited about that.

But for the past two weeks I ended up taking an overall total of only four trades and one of those was a red trade, and the other three were green. So overall can’t really complain about that, of course. I took some days off here and there the last couple of weeks. So that also, of course, contributed to the fact that I didn’t take many more trades. But the good news is that I can go ahead and spend time to analyze those trades individually for you so that you can potentially learn something beneficial for your trading. So, enough talking, let’s jump on over my shoulder and analyze those trades together.

All right, guys. So let’s go ahead and analyze the trades. So as I said, in the last couple of weeks I ended up taking couple days off each week, so in the end instead of really ten trading days which actually were already nine because of the 4th of July holiday, I ended up taking three more days off. So I ended up having only really six days of trading and so that’s why I decided to ultimately shrink everything and give you guys a single review for the last couple of weeks. I am actually planning to keep on and continue with a weekly recap from the next week on.

So with that being said, as you guys see here from the July snapshot I only ended up taking an overall total of four trades since the beginning of July, and now we’re approaching really the first half of the month. So overall, of course, I’m not impressed even by my own results, but the overall goal, especially when it’s slow like in the summer months and it’s outside of the earnings season, it’s really to stay afloat and to potentially hit some nice trade here and there. And, even more importantly, to keep the losses under control, right? So what you don’t want to do is get caught on the wrong side of trade, especially when the setup is a little bit iffy.

So, that’s what I did. I ended up taking four trades. The first one was a red trade. Overall though it was a compared loss and then I had three trades, and they ended up being better results trade over trade. I ended up taking the best trade of the last couple of weeks actually today, on Friday, on SNAP. But let’s keep the order here, the chronological order of my trades and analyze a little bit of the technicals. What I noticed, what I saw, why I jumped in, why I actually ended up following the plan the way I did.

So the first one is on AMD, right? So AMD, I took a short on the 1st of July. So if you guys are following with your own charting you can just go ahead and open the same chart and analyze that with me, kind of trying to figure out what you could have potentially done on the same name, the same day. So for me I played the three-minutes continuation. Let’s analyze together why.

So, here is AMD. As usual, if you guys are unfamiliar with a way I trade, I keep the three-minutes chart here on the left side of my charting platform and the ten minutes here on the top-right corner just to have a little bit of a higher overview on what’s going on too with the higher time frame. Kind of a slower-pace chart. And I always keep an eye on the daily chart so that I can actually see where I’m at compared to the daily, so that I can have even a bigger scale overview on what’s going on and base my trade upon the setup that aligns, basically, on those three different timeframes.

So that’s what happened there on AMD. We’re talking about the 1st of July. So we’re talking about this one ended up being a red candle here and what we had, what we notice in the morning was this gap up, right? So it was gapping up and holding. And the daily really actually looked good, potentially, even the long side because of this open window like you see. So that morning I actually ended up drawing the levels in chat room as I always do right before the market opens. So I had this high pivot here and then of course there was room from this pivot potentially even to the 52 with high which is right here at 34.30.

With that being said, I really move my attention, whenever I have a name is gapping up to a potential trade either to the long side or to the short side. So what do I do? I just use my indicators. By the way, those indicators are custom-made. I coded those myself. So for those of you that might be interested to know more about those, just go ahead and click in the link you’ll find in the description down below so you can subscribe eventually to TradingView and after that you can just email me and ask for my exact layout. I’d be happy to share it with you right away.

So, what I’m talking about is this extended session high-low that I have. It’s probably the most popular you guys actually ended up loving. So if I just disable this “Last only” here you will see also the data available for backtesting, which is always good to have. As you can see here we had overall high of 32 here during pre-market and also… I don’t really pay attention too much to the pre-market low here, just because sometimes it is just too much wide of a room to look at. And instead what I look for is to track, to keep track of those levels of support. So in this case, of course, we had a level of support here at about 31.72, and then we had another one a little bit down here at 31.64. So there was really nothing else in the way to potentially help this one supporting if actually the overall price action would have ended up being weak and so more prone for a trade on the short side.

And so at the open as usual what I look for is a potential three-minutes opening range break-out above the pre-market highs which, as you can see, ended up not happening, right? Because this gray area is all the pre-market action and here it becomes, of course, the action right after the bell. So we had the first three minutes, we had a push about 3.32. And I was actually looking for a potential continuation trade to the long side right about 32.04 would’ve been my entry to the long side, but it ended up rejecting it hard. That’s why I never end up taking the trade during the first three minutes. I always wait a little bit longer to just avoid getting caught on a false break-out which can be very volatile, very spready and very, very fast going against you.

So instead I just waited and noticed that the second three minutes ended up selling off, starting to sell off. And I ended up not taking the first three-minutes open-range breakdown just because we were still above this pre-market support. And of course in hindsight the entry here at 31.77, 31.75 would’ve actually been quite a good one, but of course I could have not justified myself entering right here on support in the first test. And so instead I waited for it to settle, and it ended up settling quite nice because the next three minutes, I think, record, pull back, retest this area. The 13 EMA here, this orange line is the 13 EMA on the three minutes. Then of course we had the VWAP also acting as resistance, this blue line here, and the 13 EMA in the 10 minutes.

So what I ended up noticing of course was that the following three minutes we had to sell off. So as soon as this one candle open we had a little bit of a push and I started to sell off and that’s when I got short. I got short here at 31.48. And I just set up my stop to be kind of a 10 cents higher. So what I would use typically when I want to be aggressive is just a high of the same three-minutes candle. When I want to be conservative, I would be using the high of the previous candle or the 13 EMA on the three minutes. But here just because it was already too much distance from it I could have not justified myself having the first target which falls right here at the 1.5:1 profit/loss ratio. I just couldn’t picture it to be able to get right there.

I actually can move it for you right now so that you also can get a feeling of what I mean by that. So if I enter right here at 31.48 and I set my stop at 31.73, a couple things then will happen. First thing will be that I will have to size my trade. Risking about $300, that’s what I usually do basing my risk off of the 13 EMA. And so that means that I would have to size my trade accordingly for the risk of about 25, 30 cents. But the point is that I ended up then sizing… let’s suppose I am okay risking $300 on a trade. Knowing that I’m going to risk 30 cents, I can base my size… in this case we have thousand shares, right? Thousand shares, 30 cents risk. $300 risk.

But the problem comes whenever I see to my reward. My reward usually comes with 1.5:1 for the first target, 2.1:1, then 4:1 and 6:1 for the last target. And so whenever I see this kind of targets, like first target being so much farther away, I really go ahead and kind of re-plan my own risk to be a little bit more realistic. So I place it at about 10 cents above my entry, and so that I could also size my trade a little bit more aggressively and look into get my targets here a little bit more realistic.

And so I went ahead and got short here, 3,000 shares. Not only was I only going to risk 10 cents at most, and this thing, at first it hesitated a little and then it started working out. I had my first order out to take profit right here at 31.33, but instead this thing went all the way to 31.33 and it didn’t fill any of my shares.

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