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Warrior Trading Blog

A Golden Short +$2,180 | Steve’s Futures Pulse 180

Steve_7.24

All right traders, if you’re just tuning in here, want to get you up to speed on today’s gold trade. Base this one on both the 10 and the 30 minute chart. You’ll see the 10 minute charts right here. The 30 is right here. Our short position initiated on this one, we started to see the market give us that breakdown right here down below that demand zone. And we initiated that short position also off the fact that we saw this nice congestion mount up above. You see that single yellow line right here? We call that the master point of control. That line over here, if you draw a line or imaginary line over to the right hand side of the price bar, that represents the highest volume traded price. When that’s above us that’s a good place to think about getting short because it’s like a little ceiling of resistance up above.

So we did again, we initiated the short 14, 26, 30 so it was right about there. I’ll draw it over on this one as well. We did get the break we were looking for, market came down and as that market started coming back up, it was time to cover, so we covered. I had 12 units that covered six at 14 and 24, 50 and then I covered five more at 14, 24, 60. I’m still down with my single unit right now. We got it. We’re still short. You can see that right now 260 and running on that final unit. 1930 closed out right now.

I still like the trade but what we’re kind of struggling with here on this one at this moment in time is that the market’s having a tough time giving us a re-break down below our demand zone, which is that green line. That kind of represents the bottom of the value area balance zone. We need to see the market breach that and come on down to give us any more on the move, but it’s basically come to light real nice.

Another factor I didn’t mention earlier here that kind of put us into a better state of mind this morning is we did see this market go into what we call trend exhaustion, so it’s this TAS navigator indicator in this bottom pane down here. We get these pink magenta color bars and we start to see kind of a rounding off of that. You see this rounding off happen on the 10 even sooner, that downward pointing trajectory, red dots on the tips of these bars mean bear claws are coming out in the market. It means sellers are coming into control, the bears are starting to pressure this market, that again with that downward pointing trajectory of navigator in combined with the break down below the congestion. You put that all together and that’s what gave us the bearish outlook for a a nice little day trip.

I’m going to cover the trade here right now because, well, this time we’re also going to look at the EM S&P here shortly and see if there’s anything for us to be doing up there. We’re going to see right here, right now. I’m going to cover that final unit. You’ll see that move into a realized P and L. 2180 is where I’ll finish and I’ll be flat in the gold and we’ll see where it goes from here. That’s all there is to it.

Let’s go take a peak at the S&P for those of you that are interested in kind of taking a peak at the S&P. Let’s take a look here. There we go. Here’s the S&P. Key area you’re watching, for those of you that are looking at the S&P here today, is similar kind of thing. We’re seeing this congestion mount up here, and although it was a nice breakout to the upside for the early morning trader, maybe those in Europe that start today, obviously a bit earlier than we do here in the states, but we’re seeing this continued to mount some congestion here.

Area I said to keep an eye on would be a break in close down below 3005. 3005 and that’d be good if we, and what you’re looking for an opportunity in that S&P, if this is a trade you’re going to kind of keep on your radar. You’re looking for the market to fill down towards that next level down below, which comes in about 3001, 3001 and a half. Again, there’s going to be three or four points of opportunity that you can fairly with a fairly high degree of probability. Now remember that’s not certainty. There’s no such thing as certainties in trading or navigating probabilities here every day.

But with a fairly high degree of probability, you’ll get that three-four point move if we get the close down below 3005. Again, because you see that little space, you see that same space over here between our levels. You see that break in free from the congestion up above and then this is that alligator jaws setup that I talk a lot about. See, if we move down through that open alligator’s mouth market slides fast and vertically through that zone.

That’s all it’s going to be for me today. Look forward to us continuing to find some opportunities. Keep that chat going everybody. We’re going to see if some other trades emerge here yet today, but if not, we’ll get back to work again tomorrow and see if we can’t have a strong finish this week. All right everybody, so long.

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