Warrior Trading Blog

Canadian South Side +$655 | Steve’s Futures Pulse 164


Hey. What’s up, everyone? Happy Thursday to you. Today we looked at opportunities in a variety of markets, but only pulled the trigger on one, and that was the Canadian dollar. Now, as you’ll see in today’s Future’s Pulse recording of the live session session from earlier today, we were this close from pulling the trigger on eMini S&P short sale, which of course would have been handsome. All told, we can’t complain. We finished with a small, green day, $655, thanks to the Canadian dollar, and we’ve set the stage for a strong finish to the week. Watch at today’s Future Pulse, and enjoy.

Let’s take a look at eMini S&P. I see some of the chatter about this. Yeah. We did start to break down on the 10 minute chart here. You can see market is still up 25. Your 30 minute chart, the area we’d want to be paying attention to is on the 30 is even if we start coming into that 29 54 zone right here, but keep an eye on that 10 minute. I know right here initially maybe some folks started looking at the short side, but be mindful of your a little bit longer time frame, 30. You can see although it’s exhausted, although we’re over done, although we’re over bought, we still want to find ourself a nice, little inflection point with some resistance up above before we try to ride this thing low. Okay? So, be patient there.

Let’s take a look now at the gold market. Here’s the gold. You can see, it’s been largely flat line here, getting real comfortable around the congestion zone we see on that 10 minute time frame. Same thing here on the 30, but as you can suspect, my disposition on this is going to be looking for an opportunity down here if we start to break that 13 82 80 mark, which we’re not too far away from. We’re only about $3 or so, about $3 or so, and it comes very closely to that same area on the 10 minute. So, this is definitely one to put on your short watch. I’ll type it in the chat here. Okay. Short watch. Okay? So, it’s still got a little bit of work to do, so we’re going to finish our cycle through the market here, see if there’s anything else that looks promising, but if you’ve got your pen and pad, that’s a good one to put GC both on the 30 and the 10 it actually looks pretty good.

On my notes that I take here, when I go through my first, initial scan, it doesn’t have to look pretty, your chicken scratches on a piece of paper. It just needs to be effective, so you know to come back to it, take another peek here, after we have just a little bit more time. Okay? That’s the silver market here as well. This one, again, up, up, and away. It’s definitely got a bearish directional bias to it, but still needs to get down to this open territory. We want to see it move away from this congestion zone to the downside, not just the opposite. You can see it’s getting propped up right now, because we’re above that master point of control, that yellow, highest volume point on the screen. So, we want to be super patient about that one.

Let’s go take a look at the industrial metal now. That’s going to be copper. Copper’s in the bull camp on both the 10 and the 30. Again, up, up, up, and away. We’re in balance here. This one, up, up, up, and away. Fake out break out there, only to resume the up side. Let’s not chase this one as well, although I do have a special spot in my heart for copper. It’s been kind to me and generally a good market to trade, but it’s been a while. It’s been some weeks since we’ve found an opportunity in copper. So, we’ll kind of keep it at bay. It’s like a good friend you have that lives out of state. Right?

Australian dollar. Let’s cycle through some of the futures currencies here now. This is the Australian dollar that I have up on my chart at least initially here. Oh. Hold on a second. Hold on. There we go. Let me go back to the Australian dollar. I clicked the wrong area here. All this congestion you see down below. Although my next trade I want to look for is going to be on the short side, not when the market’s sitting up here above the top of the supply area. You can see it over here. We’re also in balance. We need to be moving into breakdown mode, and we’re still a far cry from that. So, it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen for us today there. British pound on the 10 minute chart’s starting to navigate through this open space up above, but we’re still in our congestion zone here on the 30. I think we’ll find better markets in the currency sector here, so let’s keep looking.

Now, here’s an interesting chart pattern you’re going to want to keep on your short watch, and that’s going to be the Canadian dollar, symbol 6CU9. You can see we’ve already started to kind of break down on the 10 minute chart, okay, after a nice little run to the up side, which in itself was of course a nice, little opportunity for anybody hip to belong north of the border. It’s been a good, little trade compliments of your TAS, VEGA, and Boxes. But you could see that dynamic has changed, and we’re already starting to break to the down side. Key area to watch, you can see this bottom of the box comes in at 75 … Where is it here? Sorry. 75 98 over here. Also, watch the 75 91 area, because if we get a breakdown on both the 10 and the 30, you know what that means. We’re going to be blowing the trumpet on getting the heck out of town. We’re going to sound the alarm, and it’s going to be time to get on the short side of market. Okay?

You can see, it’s starting to even get ready for a break here on the 10 minute. It’s not the end of the world if you don’t have both time frames pointing in the same direction. The reason is is look at these navigators down here. It tells us we’ve got the exhaustion warning on both. We’re way over bought. Look at this. Over plus 60 over here. At one point it looks like we were over plus 60 over here as well. Remember, over bought in these markets starts at plus 40 on your TAS market profile indicators for navigator. That’s right over here. Okay? So, once we’re plus 40 or above, anything above that just means that rubber band is stretch, and stretch, and stretching, and the further it stretches, you know how this works. Try it some time. Do it to a nine year old boy some time. Say, “Stretch that rubber band and let go.” It hurts. Right?

So, here goes the market. It’s starting to break over here on the 10 minute chart already. This could be one of our first trades of the day here. Get ready. That’s symbol 6CU9. That’s September contract Canadian dollar. Just watching to see how this market reacts around the 91 zone, which means we do got some room for that thing to navigate lower. In terms of stops on this one, if you’re already starting to wonder where do we go with the stop on this, we can have a relatively low risk profile on this one, getting that stop at it looks like 7602 wouldn’t be a bad, little place. It’s going to be a little bit above that across the highway box up here. Okay. Here we go. Oops. Hold on a second. I miscalculated. I looked at the wrong box here, bear with me here. I need to get my glasses cleaned here. Sorry. I thought that looked a little too good to be true here.

7621 is where I’d like to be, 7621. So, from where we are right here, in this 98 range, still not too bad. Right? You’re talking about a $230 risk. Right? So, that’s a 7598 sale on symbol 6CU9, 6CU9. Mm-hmm (affirmative). Just a friendly reminder to you, I will always call out the trade, so you can act quickly. The very last thing I’ll do is I’ll post it in the announcements, because it takes more time for me type. So, I do it as a courtesy only, and I do it on an as is basis, because sometimes we’re just darn immersed in the trade. Got to have that audio. Okay? But I’ll do my best to post it in the announcement solely, solely as a courtesy for those of you that kind of see what a trade looks like in text based form as well. Okay?

I’m going to take a quick peek back here at the gold here as well. The thing’s up just monstrous here. Remember, we’re going to be paying attention, looking for a comeback trade here on the gold as well, so we’re going to be paying attention that yellow metal if and when we get the break there. Not there yet. Okay? Let’s go ahead and look at the Canadian. This things already starting to go. There it goes already some of you may be jumping the gun. I’m waiting to see how it reacts right around this 91 zone here. We’re keeping that on our radar. Again, symbol 6U. There it goes, 75 94. Not surprised, as we retreat away from that congestion zone right here. It’s going to really help out cause of this 30 minute chart can also go into breakdown mode down below the 91 zone. That’s what we’re paying attention to right here and right now.

I’m taking a little, quick peek over here at my scanner to see where we are relative to some of the other time horizons. On the bigger picture, weekly we’re in balance. Daily we’re in balance. I’ll bring this in so you guys can see this. I’m paying attention to the landscape chart over here. It’s okay that we’re on the bigger picture above these, even on the swing timeframes. What we’re really paying attention to is that we still have some room where we can navigate lower before we get into that 75 50 zone right here. Okay? That’s really what I’m looking for. It’s okay on big picture. We talked about it yesterday. It’s okay that big picture, longer term, that you’re not exactly in alignment with the 10 minute chart. In fact, most of the time your longer term, trend following directions may very well be a totally different direction than what your trading short term day trade. Okay?

Let’s finish cycling through the currencies here. This is the euro currency. See, this one, also in similar fashion, like the Canadian, it looks like it has some possible bearish tendencies here for us today. We’ll see if that continues to be the case, and we’ll circle back. Let’s look at the yen. Yen’s disconnect between the 20 and the 30, so we’re going to keep marching along. Here’s the Swiss up next. Holy cow. Look at that market clarity. Thank you, TAS, for telling us not to be short on the Swiss, my goodness. Please, please, please tell me somebody, anybody along Swiss on this just boom march higher. Don’t touch it up here.

Remember, when we’re above the value area here, this is where I think a lot of retail traders make mistakes and they just start saying, “Well, gosh. This thing can’t keep going at this pace, so let’s just start selling. It.” No. No. No. No. Just when you think it can’t go higher, it will. Be patient. What you’re waiting for is to at last get some inflection point medals to march on up here. So, you have an opportunity to have some resistance up above you here on this. Okay? That’s what you’re looking for. Let’s go take a look into the green sector here.