Warrior Trading Blog

Green Face, Green Day – Ending March +$42k!

green day

What’s up, everyone? All right, so finishing the morning here up $585. You can see right here zoom in. I’ll break down all the trades in a few minutes. We are live at the Inner Circle. This is our third seminar here. So you can see the screen behind me, and everyone out here, hanging out. We’re going to do a little … After the midday recap, we’re going to go over a couple of things coming up at Warrior Trading. We’re going to demo the new chatroom, we’re going to demo the new trading simulator, and it’s going to be a lot of fun.

 

All right, so anyways, we’ll break down all of today’s trades in today’s midday market recap. All right, everybody. So we’re going to do our midday market recap. And let’s see, I’m going to stream on Facebook also. I’ll go full screen here for one second for those of you in the chatroom. Let’s see. There we go. Oh, not quite full screen. Well, close enough. So here we are at the Inner Circle in Orlando. Those are all of our Inner Circle students, Inner Circle members. They’re waving, saying hello. So today was a decent day of trading. For me, it was … Momentum was a little less than what I was hoping for. I mean, I’m up 585 bucks. I was hoping for a $5 thousand day because that would have gotten me back into really kind of the top of, after having that pull back on Friday.

So, this morning when we were looking at the watch list, and of course watch lists are uploaded and posted on YouTube, so you guys can see them. The watch list didn’t have a lot that looked really good on it. We had a couple of small caps, but for the most part, it was kind of thin. We had AVGR as a maybe. The float was like 780 thousand shares. So pretty low float. And we had [CALI 00:02:44] on there as a possibility, but it wasn’t something I was really too serious about. So for the most part, today we had a pretty thin watch list.

Now, there are many days where I’ve said, “All right, guys. I’m not expecting a lot because the gap scanner’s dead,” and then the bell rings, a stock pops up, I jump into it on the first one minute pull back, the next thing you know, it’s a $5 thousand day. So just because the gap scanner looks a little light, doesn’t mean I’ve rule out the possibility this could still be a great day. But once the bell rang, we had AVGR, and it popped up to a high of, I don’t know, like a $1.60, $1.65. You can see, my net profit on it is only $215. So kind of a small winner on it with two trades. I’ll move this over just a teeny bit. AVGR.

So my first entry on this was just after the red to green move. The red to green move entry would have been at a $1.37, and I got in just a little on the higher side at $1.44 and $1.45. I thought that looked like a safer entry, so what I was seeing at $1.45 was a pretty big seller, and when we were seeing a lot of buying, I thought that would be enough buying for that seller to get taken out, and we would move higher. So I was in at $1.45 with 5 thousand shares. It pops up to 54, and I’m selling a little bit at 49, 51, and 54, because I can see pretty much instantly that this was not going to be a stock that moves 30 cents or something like that. It’s going to be five, seven, eight cent moves. And I got to start taking profit as soon as I have it.

So I sold for an average of five cents per share, which was 250 bucks. I then got back in it. It dropped down to a low of, what was it? I don’t know, 35 or something like that. It pops back up, I got back in for a retest of the highs, and I ended up losing about a dollar … About a penny per share. So it was about a $35 loss. It was quarter of a penny. Three quarters of a penny. So a small loss with 5 thousand shares. Not a big deal. So from $250 to $215 on that trade. And again, guys, $200 a day. We say that’s the daily goal for a beginner trader. Get in, get out. I got in, I grabbed it, I got out. It was not the most obvious set up. It wasn’t the absolute easiest, but it was fairly straight forward.

Next trade as AIPT. On this one, this was not on our watch list. This one hit our momentum scanner. Scroll back here. Hit the momentum scanner at $1.24 and $1.25. It then pulls back for a moment, and I’m watching it thinking, “All right, there might be something in this one for me.” Had a little bit of a gap pre-market, so I liked that. And I liked that it had room on the daily chart up to a $1.92, which was a 200 moving average. So I was like, “All right, from here to here, this is good potential. So I’ll give it a stab.” And on this one, I jumped in with 75 hundred shares, again using my 25 hundred share order size. So three orders of 25 hundred shares. I do that because number one, my default order size has been 25 hundred on my hot keys. Number two, as soon as I get in, I can tell if there’s a hidden seller with that first order.

If there’s like 500 shares on the ask, and I press the buy button, and that 500 shares is still there, I’m going to think, “There’s a hidden seller because since I’m buying 25 hundred, I should have just taken out that guy on the ask, and it should be now from 25 to 26.” If that is the case, I’m happy to press the buy button two more times. Now, what I usually do in my order entry area is I’ll type in $1.35. If I press it three times, I’m sending three limit orders at $1.35, which I’m going to get filled at market price, which in this case was like $1.24, $1.25, $1.26, as it’s squeezing up.

And it has the added benefit of just kind of letting you leg into a trade. When you go in, full size, 10 thousand shares, or even 75 hundred, and then you realize there’s a hidden seller, now you got to get out right away, and it’s not always easy to peace out. So this gives me a little bit of flexibility there. So my order’s … Let’s see, let me scroll down. So I got in this one at $1.24, $1.25. It pops up to $1.33. I put the order on the ask to sell half. Right? So I’m up eight cents, seven cents with 75 hundred shares. That’s $400. So I’m going to sell half. I try to sell half, and you can see, I only fill 20 shares, just enough for [Lightsbee 00:07:33] to collect their $2.00 from me.

Rob, I hope you’re happy. So $2.00. Not a big deal, whatever. So got my $2.00 commission on that, or $2.50. And then immediately I’m like, “If I’m not filling on the ask, how much time do I give it?” In this case, I gave it one second, basically. Maybe two seconds. But around a second. And as soon as I wasn’t filling on the ask, I thought to myself, “I better hit the bid and lock it up. I better sell half on the bid.” So I hit the bid at 32 and sold half right at 32. Out 3740 shares. So I’ve sold half, now I’ve realized a little bit of profit. And then, I was like, “Okay, I’m going to sell another quarter, because I’m now, at this point, not seeing as much buying as I was hoping to see.” So I sell another quarter at 29. Let’s see. 29, and I sell the rest at 20. Did this turn off? Yeah. I think the battery’s dead.

Yeah.

I’ll go get some.

Double A.

I’ll be right back.

All right, two double A’s. So yeah, so then I sold the rest at 28 and 29. I was like, “I’m just going to take profit on this. I’m going to sell it and I’ll be happy with that.” That was because we had a 15 thousand share seller that popped up at 33. So as soon as I saw that 15 thousand share seller, I was like, “All right, this thing is … Either someone’s shorting it or someone’s trying to sell. But either way, I’m out. I’m going to take my profit and I’ll look for the next trade.”

So with that, I made $369, which is about five cents on 75 hundred shares. Again, like we talked about earlier, I feel more comfortable going in with 75 hundred shares and getting out with 360 bucks two minutes later, a minute later, than I do holding 750 shares for an hour. Even though you think, “750 shares is less risk, less money on the table,” for me, any time I’m in a position I feel exposure risk. And I don’t like that feeling, and so I alleviate that by taking large positions for short periods of time, knowing that with a 75 hundred share position, I can very quickly make 350 bucks, 750 bucks. Maybe 15 hundred bucks.

If this had popped up to $1.50, I could have potentially doubled over $1.50 and had a 15 thousand share position with cost basis of, at that point, maybe around $1.42. Now, with 15 thousand shares, it squeezes up to $1.60, $1.65, it gets halted on a circuit breaker. My back of the mind target is $1.92, which is a 200 moving average. It goes up to $1.92, that could have been $8 thousand winner. Just like that. Now for me, that’s the potential. But if this goes the right way, and I can add, this could be a huge winner. And for me, I just … It would be very hard for me to do that with small size. So I have to be a little bit more aggressive and willing to step up to the plate, but then I mitigate that by trading for short periods of time.

So those are my two trades today, and I was perfectly willing to look for a third or a fourth or fifth trade, but the momentum scanner didn’t give us anything, and right now, we are kind of in that little bit of a shift between really hot markets and sort of slower markets. And so one of the things that I struggled with last year was adjusting to that shift, and that shift started in April. Things started to slow down last year in April. I was red in the month of April by I think $45 hundred, $5 thousand. And that was really disappointing. That my first red month in like a year and a half, and I just felt like, “Ugh, I just started this $583 challenge. It’s so disappointing.”

And of course, I have everyone watching me and I feel like … I was making this joke the other day, or yesterday that I feel like Tom Brady at the Superbowl, missing an easy catch, and everyone’s going to say, “Oh, it’s time for him to retire.” And I feel that pressure. If I don’t continue to have really, really good months, people are going to say, “Oh, he’s lost it. His strategy doesn’t work anymore.” And there’s just that constant pressure that I have to continue to perform. And of course, that leads right into superstition about the different colors that I wear, and turning the lights on and off four times before I start trading. And it all becomes very stressful.

But fortunately, I was able to bounce back in May. Although, June, July, August were also slow last year. And then come September, I had a second red month, down $45 hundred. So from April to September, I only net about $30 thousand in profit. And I was feeling really frustrated, because I felt like, “I’m supposed to be up here, making good money. And I’m only making $30 thousand in six months. That doesn’t seem acceptable.” Now, I know that’s $60 thousand a year. That’s the $200 a day minimum goal. So that’s good. And for a lot of you guys, you’d be really happy with that. But for me, I wasn’t happy.

And then, October comes around and the momentum picks back up. And I start getting a little more aggressive. And in November, I had my two best months … Or my two best days of all time. A $33 thousand day, the next day, $40 thousand day. I finished November with $80 thousand of profit. My best month ever by like a lot. December, I made another $82 thousand. And in January, I made $117 thousand. So in three months, I made a quarter million dollars, which was crazy, because in the six months that preceded that three month hot streak, I only made 30 thousand. And now I’ve got $250 thousand.

And then here comes February and I lose 10 grand. And so in March, I was very concerned about what this month was going to hold for me, if I was going to be able to bounce back, or if this was going to be the beginning of another six month slow period that I was just going to have to deal with. And fortunately, February was … March was pretty good, and I’m finishing with $42, right around $42, $43 thousand in profit. So this month, we have bounced back a little bit. We saw some really good opportunities earlier in the month on RKDA, INNT, TENX, and DXR. Those were a couple of the momentum stocks that really, I think, got people excited and kind of sparked this big cycle of hot momentum.

And the last couple days or the last week, it seems like it has slowed down a little bit. And I have to be quicker to adjust. Today, $585 was good. I was able to do two scalps. But I wouldn’t have been able to do these two trades starting with 10 or 15 thousand shares. If I tried to start with that type of size, I most likely would have gotten myself in trouble and I would have ended up taking losses. So that’s the interesting thing where when you’re in a cold market, you might be able to make money on a trade with 5 thousand shares, but you can’t make money with 10 thousand.

And it seems counterintuitive because you think, “Geez, if I just take more size, I’ll make more money.” But that’s not always true, and the reason is because of slippage, number one. And just the fact that some of these stocks being thinly traded, they’re just not enough of a market to absorb a 10, 15 thousand share exit when you try to sell and hit the bid. So one of the things that’s important for me is to really be mindful of seeing those red flags, and those caution indicators. Like today, the fact that the two stocks we’re watching, AVGR and CALI, and I guess AIPT, that neither of them are really doing anything incredible today.

AVGR, 12.6 million shares of volume. It’s got a lot of volume. It’s up 22%, but it’s pretty much at the same price that it opened at. It’s just been bouncing up and down. And there were a couple of easy opportunities in the morning, and since then, it’s just been choppy. So getting into the habit of taking those quick profits and being willing to adjust your expectations is important. I know that there’s that feeling that if you make $80 thousand in a month, I should be able to expect that I can make 80 thousand every month for the rest of the year.

Now, I’m finishing the first quarter with $150 thousand of profit. So that means I’m tracking for 600 thousand on the year. Maybe that’ll happen, but it might not because I could have three months or four months that are really, really slow. So my goal this year is 400 thousand, maybe half a million. That would be a nice target for me. And at the same time, if we do have a couple of slow months, I have to be content to adjust my expectations back to just making 500 a day. This might be a market where $500 a day is the best I can do, and I should be really happy with that, knowing that I can grind on 500 a day until things open up.

Now, for those of you that watch the Discovery Channel, who in here watches the Discovery Channel? By show of hands. Everyone here is raising their hand. Discovery Channel. I wouldn’t mind being the star of a new show, but many of you guys are aware that the Deadliest Catch is getting ready to start. I think it’s their 14th season, which is very exciting for me, because it’s one of my favorite shows. And in the Deadliest Catch, we notice that there will be … It’s almost like they have the same kind of thing that we have, hot streaks and cold streaks. They’ll find a school of crab, and they’re putting down their pots, and they’re just picking them up, pot after pot, 500 crab, 700 crab. It’s crazy. They’re just coming over the rails, it’s amazing.

And then, they’ll come into a period where things are slow. They lay out a string of 100 crab [inaudible 00:17:22] and they’re picking them up and they’re all empty. It’s one, after another, after another. And when they have a string of empty pots, do you think that the smart move is to set them back on that same location? No. Obviously not. You have to adjust, you have to adapt. You have to adapt to changing information. New information comes in, and you have to change your analysis. So they thought that was a good spot, and well, turns out it’s not. Things changed, and they have to adjust.

And that’s what we have to do as traders. If we want to just keep doing the same thing every single day, we’re going to realize that what worked in January may not work in February. And that feels confusing because you’re like, “Well geez, the set up that worked so well last month is not working. Buying at half dollars and whole dollars, this made me $117 thousand in January, and in February, I lost 20 grand, or 10 grand. How is that possible?” And what is good in one market may not be good in another. And it’s, again, the ebb and the flow of momentum.

So I sort of see these analogies when it comes to what we do as traders, and anything I do, whether it’s race car driving, or skiing, or tennis, or watching TV shows, I can kind of see in all these different things how that relates to trading. And my world revolves so much around what I do. And I’m sure it does for all of you guys, because this is very, it’s very emotionally consuming. Even though right now I spend about half my day trading, and the other half of my day working on the different projects that we’re running at Warrior Trading, the trading portion of my day is all-encompassing, and I think about it for the rest of the day.

If I had a bad day of trading, I’m thinking about it for the whole rest of the day. If I a good day of trading, I’m thinking about that and what I could do better and how I could make the next day better, what my daily profit targets are and all that stuff. So taking time to sort of step back and draw these comparisons between trading and other things that you’re doing I think is a good idea. And I know for me, [inaudible 00:19:22] is where I’ve had a hotkey mistake and I’ve lost $3 thousand. And I’ve been like, “Gosh darn it. This is insane.” I think on the Deadliest Catch, where they are bringing a pot over, and the thing that they drop it on breaks. And it’s a $3 thousand piece of equipment.

And it’s the luck of the draw. Do they take it personally the way I take a loss personally? I’m such an idiot for this or that? No. It’s just what it is. It’s the cost of doing business. So you have to be able to forgive yourself when you have those mistakes, because they will happen. And you just kind of have to get into this frame of mind that you got to be very quick to adapt. And you got to be able to be in the zone, but at the same time, recognize what’s happening around you. Because it’s very easy to be so tunnel vision that you’re focusing just on the level two of this stock, and you’re not thinking about what’s happening outside of it, what’s happening on these momentum stocks.

Is the entire market strong for momentum? Or is it weak for momentum? Because that is going to impact the way you should be trading us. And so anyways, just some food for thought. And that’s pretty much it for today’s midday market recap, just going over those trades and a couple of my thoughts as we finish here the month of March. So how many of you guys are trading in the sim right now? Okay. Good. Good. So at 1:00 o’clock, in about two hours, what we’re going to do is we’re going to talk a little bit about what’s coming this year at Warrior Trading. And I’m going to show you guys a preview of our new trading simulator, and I’ll give you guys a little preview and a walkthrough of our new chatroom software.

So we’ll do that at 1:00 o’clock, so that’s coming up soon. And I think you guys will be excited to see some of the things that we’ve been working on for the last six months since our last Inner Circle seminar in New York City. All right, so that’s coming up then. And we’ll do, in just a couple minutes, I’ll talk a little bit about the crypto currency class that we’ve added. Let’s see, we were going to take … Yeah, we were going to take a break.

So why don’t we take a 15, 20 minute break, let you guys get some water, do your thing, and then we’ll come back and we’ll talk about the crypto currency class before we go into lunch. All right? That sounds like game plan. Okay. All right, for those of you guys watching on Facebook Live, I will see you all back in the chatroom on Monday morning. The market’s closed on Friday. So it’s going to be a long weekend, but if you guys want to join us at 1:00 o’clock, I will livestream our product launch of the new trading sim and the new chatroom. All right, so I’ll see you guys in a little bit. Bye.

If you’re still watching, you must have really enjoyed that video. So why not subscribe and get email alerts any time I upload new content? Remember, when you subscribe, you become a member of the Warrior Trading family.