Warrior Trading Blog

No Trade, No Way | Steve’s Futures Pulse 195

Steve_8.16

Hey, what’s up fellow traders? Happy Friday to you. Well, what can I say? I was super excited to come into this Friday session and look to nudge that P&L for the week into the green. So far for the week, down $278 on up and down trading throughout the week.

On Monday, down $5,940. On Tuesday, we got over $5,200 back. On Wednesday, lost $3,300. Yesterday, up $3,750. Wild ride, up, down, up, down. It’s been crazy. We’ve seen extreme market conditions, huge ranges and turnarounds in the markets. The tides are going up and down and up. You know what? I’m quite thankful to be just near break even at the end of a volatile week like that. It was a testament to sticking to my trading plan, not falling victim to fear, greed, fear of missing out, that’s a big one, and I just stuck to my strategy.

Now, of course, I’ve had better weeks. In fact, last week, a perfect five green day. I guess all due respect, I can’t complain. It’s a no-trade day today, but I recorded the action as I scanned through the markets, and you’ll see what kind of day I had today as well.

I stubbed my toe, and I spilled my coffee everywhere. It’s like there was a cloud above me here. Probably a pretty good day not to make a trade. I’m going to try and enjoy my weekend. After all, summer’s coming to a close. Soon the kids are getting back into school, which means I get to roll my sleeves up. Hey, I don’t even have sleeves, but if I did, I get to roll my sleeves up and get back on my regular regimen.

I’m looking forward to that. It’s back to school time, back to trading school time. So no better time than for you to think about joining Warrior Trading so you can join me live every morning, Monday through Friday, looking for opportunities. Enjoy today’s recap, and enjoy your weekend. So long.

All right. Good morning, futures warriors. Happy Friday. TGI futures. Thank goodness it’s futures. It’s been a challenging week this week. We started off the week downward $5,900, got most of it back on Tuesday, lost $3,300 on Wednesday, got it all back, $3,750 and a bag of chips yesterday. Near break even. We’re down $278 for the week, but it’s been a real battle.

Before I took a look at some opportunities here today, just wanted to share with you it’s been up and down, up and down, and some weeks are like that. Last week, five green days, it felt like it was easy. This whole trading thing is easiest thing on the planet. Then of course you have a challenging week like we did here. It’s been a battle. It’s one of those weeks.

I know plenty of people deep in the trading industry. If you’re breaking even this week in this volatility, you’re probably leading the pack. Some weeks are like that. Don’t be frustrated if you’re having some of those same challenges. It’s normal. It’s part of trading. It’s to be expected. Hang in there. Okay? That’s what it’s all about.

I’ve been having an interesting day today. I stubbed my toe coming down the steps. I spilled my coffee, which I do several times a year. I got an issue with my webcam. It’s one of those weird Fridays where you feel like there’s like just a little cloud over you with nothing but rain and thunderstorms.

Did look at the markets earlier this morning. Was not seeing anything that was prime, at least for my criteria, to enter. I have a predisposition to cycle through the markets here this morning, and if I don’t see something that looks good for me, it could be a no-trade Friday. So be it. Go into the weekend having gone 12 rounds with the market, and it’s a tie nearly, I guess we’d say. And then we start fresh next week. That very well could be what goes down here today.

We’re going to see here. Let’s go through some of our usual markets. Even the S&P you could see up 22.25 to kick off a positive start to an interesting session for the S&P this week. Lots of volatility there. You can see the market actually is down below that congestion zone here, so although it’s up 23.5 right now again, a possible opportunity for the market to make its headway a little bit further south. Again, what we’re leveraging is congestion on the 10 and room to navigate down below on the 30. Still not a good enough setup for me to get excited about pulling the trigger.

Let’s go take a look at light sweet crude. This is September contract. Yeah, this one’s been in breakdown mode since a little earlier this morning. This is 6:10 AM Chicago bar. See how we started to get that breakdown down below the low value area demands on? That’s that green line. Look at the volatility on both sides in the re-breakdown below. If you’re going to trade in the crude oil, it’s going to be on the the bear side, and I want you to understand why.

Take a look here. Congestion up above and master point of control, yellow horizontal line on both those timeframes. Again, that’s going to be resistance to the trade. I’m not really thrilled about where we are on navigate around the 10, and we’re a little too far along for me to be super excited about the 30 minute navigator as well.

Markets are rocking. They’re really picking up. You can see on my board right here. See the blinking? Not Abe Lincoln. Blinking chart up here in the top right market is starting to really pick up a head of steam. Let’s go take a look at the NASDAQ back on the index products. Big pop here just moments ago. 7,584 above that key area. Could break free here in just a moment above 7,600. I’m going to watch. Even the S&P one more time just popped up. Now 32 and a half. Look at that bar right there. Again, that broke free. We broke free just moments ago on that.

Who got on Twitter? Who got on Twitter? Anybody know? Anybody got their squawk up? That happened literally just right before our eyes there. We were looking at this thing we were seeing how basically the market was staying down below congestion. Then a big pop above. Who’s got the squawk right now in front of them? I don’t have it right up in front of me here.

Here we go. Let’s take a look at the bonds here in the meantime, down 21 ticks. A big sell off here. Basically simultaneous stocks popped up. Bonds, just a drop down moments ago. Matt saying he doesn’t see anything on Trump’s Twitter right now. Stay tuned. Maybe a secret Twitter feed went out. Private Twitter feed. I don’t know. I’m not going to pick on Trump because you know darn well he’s gonna pick right back on me. I’m not gonna do it. He has more followers than even warrior trading.

Let’s take a look at gold market here down 8.10 to kick things off here today. This one is in the thick of it here. We’re in the value area on both the 10 and the 30 not looking prime for an opportunity there. Let’s take a look at the silver here. September contract silver. We’re a little bit above the congestion zone right here, but in the box on the 10 just starting to migrate a little bit above the 30 value area, but look, we’re contained in this box here with master point in control up above.

Let’s go take a cycle through the industrial metal. That’s the copper market symbol, HG. It’s a September contract. This is one I bet we were keeping an eye on all week but couldn’t find really for me alone. Enough risk opportunity in the trade at the times I was from in front of the screen and I’m not seeing it again here today, so we’re going to get into the currency sector here.

Now again, we’re just cycling through currencies. This is a Swiss down big. You can see it’s been down, possibly might be working on a break out, back to the upside. Look how your… You’re starting to that’s a terrible draw of a trend. There we go. That’s not very good either. Let me try again. It’s hard with the mouse. There we go. So you see how as we start to get up here, if we connect the descending highs, just rough and you’ve got drawing tools on most of your platforms to do this, I’ve got a free hand tool I’m using here.

If we start to break up above there and you start clearing above those top of the boxes, keep an eye on that 102-44 zone. You’ve got a little room and navigate a little bit of a pocket, maybe 15 points before you run into that congestion. Again, pretty small opportunity, not enough to really excite me on that particular trade. Let’s go take a look now at the Japanese yen disconnect here you got the 10 minute chart looking to make strides higher, 30 minute chart which gets precedence down below the congestion. Again, nothing to do there. Euro currency and lets go take a look.

Ah, there you go. Look at the Euro currency, big pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, pop. This is where you get… This market has been… It was a nice trade on the short side. We talk about managing risk on these trades so that a bar like this doesn’t give back all your profits. You’d be right back to your starting point if you started on a short way back here. If you let this market go all the way way back up there. So make sure your trail and stops as those value areas shift lower. So a bar like this albeit probably catches you off guard. It takes you out of the market with some locked in profit. I’M flat the market still as it turns out right now, so nothing just yet.

There we go. Canadian dollar, this is one we had on our watch list yesterday in the morning and never did ultimately give us the move we looking for in our time together here.

It’s a disconnect here on the 10 and 30 we’re seeing a lot of this 10s and breakup mode of the upside, 30 minute charts still in a little bit of a breakdown mode. So again, when you see that that disconnect between big brother little brother, you know, we want everyone in the family to to be on the same page.

British pounds in breakdown mode after a nice run up here. This could be an opportunity for those of you that are looking for something in the currencies. Look how you’re in breakdown mode on the 10 and the 30 right here, and you’ve got room to navigate down below. You’ve got a little room to navigate down below the 1.2168 level all the way down towards the top of the box right here. Look, this comes in. Let me see. 12144 so from 68 to 44 this is a little zone of opportunity here. Okay. If that market retreats off that 12168 level, okay, if it stays down below there, that’d be a good thing.

Risk on this trade actually could put up fairly low risk entry on this one. If you get a stop, if you don’t want to go all the way above the top of the box here and above the technical high, which in itself, we actually wouldn’t be risking a whole heck of a lot. The high of that bar 12186 so putting it up here, you know, even around the 12190 zone. It’s not a whole heck of a lot of risk. About 20, 23 points or so.

If you want to come just above that POC, could put a risk at 12181 from where we are right now. Markets at 12165 was 15 points, right? Not a whole lot of risks on that particular trade. That’s the thing to pay attention to right here. OK? This thing, if it stays down below the demands zone, if we navigate through that volume gap, you’ll see the market pickup steam. I think it could be a decent trade. We’re gonna put this one on short watch. So I’m going to put a short watch for the British pound. We’re watching the Brits today.

Let’s go take a look. Last but not least, Australian dollar. This one will look too far along on the Australian… Or not the Australian dollar. A little too far along on the navigator on the 10 minute chart for me to really get too excited. So I’m going to leave that one alone. So we’re moving right over to the grains here.

I want to cycle through and we’re to come back to the a stock index products where you’re already in the bull camp on the 10 look for a market, possibly breaking about 473 on the Chicago wheat contract. Then you got some room to navigate higher, but we’re not there yet. Let’s go over to the soy beans. This is November beans, markets in the bull camp up above and found some a nice support off this congestion launch pad right here and master point of control. But look how we’re contained on the shorter term time horizon.

Again, disconnect again on the 10 and the 30 when we were seeing a lot of this today. It’s discounting some of the opportunities that otherwise I would maybe be willing to pull the trigger on. You could see the market in the corners breaking free on both the 10 and the 30. for me get a little too far along on navigator. A little a lack of enthusiasm here on the navigator for the 30 as well. I’m gonna let that one go.

Let’s take a peak at the cattle. Cattle’s had a wild, wild, wild a week with a lots of gaps, talked about lots of gap downs and so forth on this chart. It’s just been a wild market to partake in. It’s a market that you know, for those of you that have an interest in trading cattle mar- it’s one of the markets that has these big gaps between the sessions.

It’s not like the mini S&P, Short break, and then you can manage risks. There’s big gaps traded again during the daytime hours. So you’ve got one of the few commodities that actually does not have a continuous session that runs nearly 24 hours a day.

Let’s take a look at the the hogs, so nothing to do on the cattle there. Hogs again, you got containment up above with congestion on the market map and that’s going to really contain my enthusiasm as well. So containment above with some resistance on on the possible breakout to the upside and that’s gonna again and contain my enthusiasm.

And I’m gonna go cycle back here, even S&P which popped up there moments ago here just like that. The key thing to watch here is the congestion zone. These master points control and the 10 is right here. On the 30th this market retreats below that 2872.25 area. You could see it sell off and you’ve got some room to navigate here. Again, look, you’ve got some space on the longer term, 30 minute time horizon. There is a trend exhaustion warning on that 30 so again, when we’re looking at 10 and a 30 minute time horizon. Yeah, we want them to both be telling us the same thing, but when there’s disconnect on a shorter term versus longer term timeframe, you want to side with the longer term time frame. Which means draw your eyes over here to the 30 minute time horizon. No action point right here on the E-mini S&P, nothing really to be doing for me.

Light sweet crude. If you can have a bias, could put this one on short watch, but there’s reason for pause on this one. Mean if you had to initiate position it would be on the short side. But this is what scares me a little bit on the 10 minute timeframe. Already at exhaustion warning already starting to give that signs up coming up and albeit we’re down below congestion. Just as quickly as I said, possible short watch here. I’m gonna discount that one and put a big no right there. Ghostbusters.

No, we’re going to cycle through the precious metals here one more time and if I’m not seeing anything, it’s going to be one of the biggest anticlimactic showdowns with the market here on Friday. Here’s gold down six and a half. Sitting in the congestion zone. Again, this is that zone where when you’re in that value air between red and green line and you’re in that thick of it, that red color zone in the background on your market map volume profile, market’s going to tend to go sideways and laterally, it’s hard to make money in the sideways market.

Could I take a peek at the silver again, we’re cycling through round number two here. Bullish directional bias, the better signal would have been early bird this morning. You can see way back here, 4:30 AM Chicago time. That was a nice break on the 10 minute timeframe. But again, I can’t get into my DeLorean and go back in time and enter long here.

So to recap, my day. I stubbed my toe, I was wearing sandals and stubbed my toe coming down the stairs. Spilt my coffee, my webcam didn’t work and I can’t find a trade today. I got to tell you, I think it’s the right thing to do. It pains me to say it. It pains me to say it, but it is the right thing to do. If you’ve gone through your checklist, you looked at the markets, you’ve watched your timeframes, you don’t have anything bulging out at you. A flashing pulsating saying, “Steve, are you crazy? Do you really not want to participate today?” That’s a no trade day for me.

I’m going to take one last peek. I’m gonna take one last peak at this British pound. This is about the only thing that’s got that multi timeframe confluence. And again this is on… We’ve got bearish perspective here on the British pound. It’s all we got stand down below. Got it though. The confirm close one bar ago just three minutes ago we got that, that bar closed down below. Big bright is [Taz Vega 00:16:33], making it bright red to say it’s bearish because we closed down below 12168.

We’ve been closed down below for three bar consecutive bars here. Testing the waters of this demand zone, so I’ll break down below there. Again, it opens up, you’re still relatively early on in the swoop to the downside and very early on in the 30. I run down towards the congestion zone on the 30, it is again a good place to be looking for maybe some profit-taking if you’re going to take that short position. And if the market has enough time, again on a Friday, you gotta be a little skeptical as you get a little further on into the afternoon hours. The trades still comes to life and you’re in it want to really buckle down the risk on the trade. But this is about the best chart that I can see here today.

Exhaustion, exhaustion, downward pointing trajectory. A navigator on the 10 the early start to the rounding off downward trajectory on the 30, down below the bottom of the box, down below the bottom of the box here on the 10, you get a little congestion up above master point control. Got a little room to navigate down below here before you’re gonna run into resistance on that longer time, 30 minute time horizon. That’s about all I see today. That’s it. That’s what I see. British pound on the short side here.

I leave you with that idea. Have you guys ever had a day like this? Where you kinda just feel in mojo is just a little off by some little signs you’re getting in your day. I did not find a fly in my Wheaties. Don’t worry. I did not eat a bug this morning.

I know, I know. So in the wake of last week’s perfect five green day and you know, again, I said, I was really looking forward to maybe a a better show down with the markets here on Friday. You know, it took a blow on Monday. We gave a blow back on Tuesday, took a blow on Wednesday, got it back on Thursday. Setting up a final round to see who’s gonna win the battle going into the weekend.

But I really deep down feel I’d be pressing if I did. That’s about the only pattern here when we looked at with about 20 different markets, right? 15, 20 markets. That jumps out at me. I’m gonna take a peak of the bonds here. I mean I’m trying, I’m trying to let the market earn my embrace.

Keeping an eye out on the S&P. Those of you are going to be continuing to watch the S&P key areas is congestion zone that you see right around here. It’s around 20, actually not far from where we are right now. The breakdown zone comes down over here on the 30, at 72 and a quarter. Watch your raw volume profiles over here as well. If markets start to break down below those zones, remember you get that resistance as well. I’m with you 100% Derek. I think it’s the absolute… It’s one of these things where it’s a a lose lose, right?

If I sit here… We’ve talked about this before. Remember the value of your time. The biggest and greatest and most precious commodity of all is really your time. So I’m sitting here this morning, I was looking for trades even before I went live with you guys today and wasn’t seen anything. You had a couple of close calls. If a couple of things would’ve come to life, nothing came to fruition. I guess you throw in the a little bit of stubbed a toe, spilled my coffee, webcam’s not working. I feel it’s a sign. So I’m not going to sit her on the screen all day on a Friday trying to see something that’s not there just so I can find a trade for the sake of trade. And again, that’s a bad idea.

So sadly, sadly I always hate goodbyes even though they’re necessary on Friday. But we’re going to be doing it again all next week. I again feel thankful that we basically broke little shy of break even for the entire week after quite a battle in some extreme volatility here today. We’re going to get back at it next week, of course.

We’ll start with a a fresh set of eyes. I’m looking forward to my kids getting back in school finally. Yes, cause then I also get a little normalcy and my schedule as well. I’ve never been so happy to wisp away my three kids to school. And that’s good for us as well cause it means that my schedule gets a little more regimented, which is super exciting.

I’m going to keep the obviously charts alive and well here and you guys are gonna keep sharing ideas. Because I know there’s going to be some, keep sharing them. Keep the discussion going and I want to beat you back on Monday. I’m going to go find something to do today. Maybe I’ll play golf. I was thinking about going canoeing. There’s also this a race track, little go-kart race track. I was thinking about taking my young son on. There’s also a theme park. Maybe we might visit if someone can twist my arm. I don’t know.

It’s the end of summer, so we’ll find something. Your job between now and when I see you again on Monday is to trade well and be well. Don’t overtrade, keep your fear and greed in check. Stick to your trading plan and don’t overtrade, especially on a Friday. Don’t ruin your weekend. I’ll meet you back next week everybody. Until then, trade well and be well. Bye. Bye.

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