Warrior Trading Blog

Red Day III: The Revenge of The Choppy Market

choppy market

What’s up everyone. Alright, so here we are finishing my third day in the red. It’s getting a little disappointing but you know what? All things considered it’s still a great week, I’m up $5,000 on the week. Although it’s not the $32,000 I’ve been averaging for the first and second weeks of the month, $5,000 is good money. For working two hours a day, I’ll take it. I’m up $68,000 right now on the month of April and life is good. It’s thanks to being able to day trade, getting in here each morning, capitalizing on the opportunities but there will be the ebb and the flow.

The momentum can shift, the tide can change and that’s what we’ve seen in the last three days, it’s been a little bit choppier but for those of you who enjoy watching these recaps, if you have questions put them down in the comments section, I’ll come back through over the weekend and answer as many of them as I can and if you enjoy these videos I’d love for you to give me the thumbs up. Alright. We’re going to breakdown all of today’s trade and today’s midday market recap.

Alright everyone. Here we are today. It is the 69th trading day of the year, finishing the morning down 1,100 bucks, you guys will be able to see that here but all things considered not a bad day really. Yeah, I’m a little in the red but it’s been a great week. I’m up $5,000 on the week. I’m up $68,000 on the month and $218,000 on the year. Being down $1,000 a day is not a big deal. You can see I had one nice winner on VLRX but I had a couple of losers here and so that is what it is.

We’ll breakdown the trades here. First trade of the day was on VXRT, this one was a gap and go setup. I was scalping the break over this pre-market pivot right here at 650. The bell rings, it pops up, it breaks 650, it taps 666 and then it fades. I knew we had resistance at 686 up here but I thought we would be able to open up a little more before hitting that resistance and this is also the right time of day for us to break resistance, the first hour.

It was worth a shot but this one didn’t end up working. I jump in at 650 for the break over the half dollar, it taps 666 or 660, whatever and I had to stop out at $6 so kind of a bummer there, $1,800 loss right out of the gate. Switch gears HEAR was on watch I jumped into this one, I saw it starting to surge up so I was like, “Alright, I’ll jump in that.” I got in here at 460. My entry there was a little high. This one I really liked for the daily chart, experiencing a daily break out [inaudible 00:03:47] to make a new high squeezes up, taps 473 and then it pulls back. I hold through the pull back but I had to stop on this candle as it broke the low and I got kind of not a great fill out at 438. Disappointing there. I could have sold to break even through this consolidation and maybe that’s what I should have done in hindsight. That’s probably what I should have done but I gave it a chance and that ended up turning into a $2,200 loss.

With those two I’m down four grand on the day and it happens fast. There’s no doubt about it. When you trade a big size, the winners and losers, they can stack up pretty quickly either way. Next trade was VLRX, this one hit our scans … I was a little iffy about it because where it hit the scans right here, it hit all the way up to 308 and then it came all the way back down to 250. That’s a pretty sharp pull back. I was a little nervous about it but decided to get in for a scalp at 286, 297 and 324. A little more aggressive on this one because I saw it had the potential to move. It tapped a high of 345. I put an order at 348 to try to sell right under the half dollar and it didn’t get filled. I would have love to have gotten filled up there in the 40s, the half dollar. That would’ve been a great trade if I’d gotten out of there but that didn’t work. It ended up pulling back and I stopped out on this red candle.

I added for the break over 28 and then stopped out at 26, 22, 21 and that was it. $3,000 of profit on that one. Not bad for a trade that didn’t really work out the way I wanted it to. It really didn’t. It should have been a 6000, $7,000 winner but $3,000 is great. That helped get me out of the hole for these trades. That’s pretty much it for the day. I took one scalp or another scalp on VLRX in this area for a break of the VWAP, small winner, didn’t really do much. NAP, that one I jumped into a five minute set up right here but as you can see, it did a false breakout so false breakout there. Lot of false breakouts today. Stocks like [ACALI 00:06:10] squeeze up all the way back down. MYO, squeeze up, all the way back down. This is the type of thing that we’ve been seeing today and we’ve been seeing for the last couple of days and it does make it difficult. I size down on all of my trades except for VLRX.

I was being more aggressive on that one because I thought it had more potential and I was up $7,000 on it unrealized, for a moment but it didn’t hold up. I ended up taking the $3,000 profit. No trades in the IRA today, nothing that was worth taking the risk on there so today is my third consecutive red day. I was down 1,500 on Wednesday which wasn’t that bad. Yesterday, I was down 3,800 which was worse and that was because of a $6,000 loss on DXR. That was a disappointing loss. I was being a little too aggressive on that one and it got me so paid the price on that. I was able to dig myself out of the hole a little bit but not all the way and then today losing another $1,500 … $1,100. That puts me down in the last three days about $7,000. Now, the hot streak that I was on which started at the end of March and continued until Tuesday gave me … let’s see. Let me just run the report on this. That gave me a total of $79,000 in profit over 13 days.

13 days and $79,000 of profit, let’s just do the Math and see how much that is per day. 79,000 divide by 13 days. $6,076 per day average for 13 days. During those 13 days my average winners were, let’s see 34 cents per share and my average losers were only 17 cents per share. Average winners were 5% gain per trade. Average losers were 3.6% and this is over 75 or 80 trades. Accuracy during that same period. let’s see, it was pretty solid probably close to 80%, 75%. Let’s see. Accuracy was about 78%. It’s good stuff. That was a really nice hot streak. Right now to have three red days, making $80,000 and then losing 7,000 over three days, that’s … if each step up is $7,000 so 10 steps up one step back. That’s only a 10% pull back off of the last 13, 15 days. I’m okay with that, that’s totally fine. That’s within the margin of acceptable pullbacks and good trading and well managed risk.

Obviously, I want to see things turned around early next week. I want to finish the month of April strong with $68,000 of profit on the month, I’ve got a big cushion so I don’t have to really worry about closing the month red but I had a goal of $100,000 this month. Now, that’s looking a little bit far away unless we have some really good trading next week. The first two weeks of the month I was making 30,000, $34,000 a week. It certainly doesn’t mean that I couldn’t have $35,000 next week and break the 100K mark but we’re going to need to have a really solid trading. Just take what the market’s willing to give me and if it continues to be choppy, one of the things that I try to do is ease off the throttle a little bit, slow down. I should have stopped out of here sooner. I could have gotten out for $1,000 loss and I did break even on the day. The XRT was a little bit more aggressive, maybe I should pass on those.

It’s this challenge of I want to keep trading, I want to trade every single day. I’m not the type of person that is like, “Oh, I’ve made $80,000 in the last 13 days, I’ll take a week off.” I’ve never done that. I’ve never been like that. I always am like, “No, I want to come in tomorrow because there could be another winner tomorrow.” If the market was going to be open tomorrow, Saturday, I would come in tomorrow because you never know maybe there will be a great opportunity so I’m always thinking that. There could be a great opportunity tomorrow or Monday, whatever it is and I want to be back here to capitalize on it. I sit down, I look for trades, I see a couple of things that look good, I take stabs at them and if I lose money then it is what it is and I’ll come back tomorrow and I just keep doing it.

Yeah, it does mean that during choppy markets I come in every day and sometimes I do get chopped up a little bit, have some losses but the day that the momentum starts to turn, I’ll be here to capitalize. I guess that’s like the FOMO. I don’t want to miss the opportunity to have that big winner and so that means I don’t want to take days off. I want to be here every day to try to maximize. I do hope that we see things turn around early next week. Ultimately, let’s just think for a second, how many circuit breaker halts have we seen in the last three days? How many times have we seen a stock squeeze up 40, 50% in the last three days? Not to many times. We saw VLRX today but it was really getting pounded back down and that is probably in part because that’s what happened to it back on Tuesday, when it spiked up, it got hammered back down. Probably short sellers are thinking, “This is going to do the same thing, I’m going to short it, be aggressive.” Up here there is a lot of just churn. It wasn’t really opening up.

What we need is a stock that makes a leg up like this, pulls back and then continues the second leg higher and goes up to 455. There might be a couple of days before we get a stock that has the right combination of a good daily chart, good technicals and a decent catalyst for that to happen. In the meantime, got to keep the share size a little smaller. I did override my warning on VLRX, I had to manually override it to take 15,000 shares. I was okay with doing that because by the time I was adding the additional 5,000 … no, I’ll just go back on this one. I added 10,000 with an average of 495 … sorry 295. Adding another 5,000 at 324, I was already up 2,500 bucks, right? Almost $3,000 of profit. To me, when you’re up 3,000 and the stock is really strong, that’s when I’m going to add because maybe it goes up to 350, gets halted on circuit breaker and then taps $4 and now I’ve got 15,000 shares for the $3 average as a 15,000 winner.

To me, it was worth taking the risk to add more size. I wouldn’t have started with 15,000 shares, I was willing to add because I was already up a couple of thousand bucks. That’s the mentality there but … then I had to go into my warning section and increase so I can be able to scale out without … because I didn’t want to have to try to sell and get warnings when I was selling but given the fact that this is the third red day, I’m going to go adjust my share size again, bring it back down a little bit on Monday and just try to finish the day Monday in the green. Today wasn’t really about being a hero, I was just trying to make some money but I just got caught in a couple of choppy trades and so that’s just part of the deal but anyways, I’m again down $1,000. It’s not really a big deal. Up 5,000 on the week so it’s easy to get tunnel vision and say, “Oh, my God. I’m down this amount today.”

Open it up, step back 5,000 on the week is good. 68,000 on the month is great. Life is good, it’s thanks to being able to day trade and we’ll be back at it first thing Monday morning. Anyone watching on YouTube or Facebook we’d love to have you guys give me the thumbs up and go back and throw in some comments, I’ll come back through and answer them over the weekend. Alright. Hope you guys enjoy the weekend. Get some rest, study up for those that are trying to learn the skill and we’ll be back at it on Monday morning. Alright, I’ll see you guys on Monday.

Oh, hey. I didn’t see you there. I was just working on the dream board for my next home run trade. Hope fully it comes soon. Until then, make sure you subscribe to get email alerts anytime I go live or upload new videos. Until then, happy surfing.