Warrior Trading Blog

Resisting FOMO Trading +$81 | Steve’s Futures Pulse 209


Hey, what’s up fellow traders? Up here in the top right of the screen, I’ve got my big bright yellow Minnesota Vikings hat because it’s NFL football season now. I hope your team did well, and if you were cheering on your home team and if your team didn’t do well, remember it’s still a long season and there’s always next week.

Hey, let’s talk a little bit about today’s session. Obviously, we had a nice green street coming into today, 11 in a row, and I went through my cycles as I do. I go scan through my different markets that I look for opportunities. Gold, grains, energy markets, the normal fare. I’ve got to tell you, a lot of the markets had some really nice moves that kicked in two, three o’clock in the morning. Because as you know, these markets open up on Sunday night, many of these, and they trade nearly 24 hours a day.

I had a little bit of fear of missing out, a little FOMO that I had to temper. I confessed to the traders in the room that I was probably going to keep the the risk low today. We ended up finding two trades. I made 531 on the British pound on a breakdown trade, which I’m going to show you here on the charts in just a moment. Then lost 450 on the Ebony S&P. so net plus $81. Just one of those days, you know. Anyways, didn’t spend a great deal of time in front of the screen because I knew I needed to fight that temptation to be chasing these markets. With the benefit of hindsight here in the afternoon at the time of this recording, feeling good because Lye’s Market’s just sat in a range bound, didn’t have any real missed opportunities to add insult to injury.

Anyways, let’s dive into the British pound here so I can teach you something, that’s why I’m here. This is the area that we started seeing the market go into breakdown mode. I’m looking at the 10 minute chart over here. This is British pound futures. Here’s your current quote, of course, but I’m going to go back in time. When we turned on the British pound track this morning, we saw a market at a nice run up again. I talked about that between two and three AM this morning. There it is right here, big break to the upside and I’ll be it. That’d be fantastic to be long. I had to get my beauty rest at that time. So I was fast asleep. Right about here is the time we’re together this morning, and on this bar right here we started looking at a short side position because we saw the overextension.

Remember Taz Navigator down below here, when we get these pink magenta color warning bars, as you see me pointing to in the bottom left, that’s a market that is either going to be likely to go into a sideways chart pattern for a period of time. It’s still going to have one last little leg up, but generally probabilities are going to start to favor the market’s snapping back, working its way back the other way.

So, again, directional bias put us on a short side in this market at 123.57 which is right down below this 123.60 level. Right there, that was a chicken scratch right there. That’s the level 123.57, so we get the break. You can see on this bar we saw, well that was a weak close on that bar, we covered five to six units on that one at 123.42, and then we ended up trailing our stop down, which initially started up here at 123.93 followed by trailing it down. It was one 123.62, so we have to start there on the stop, which was a $225 risk.

Market broke back down here, and then we we trailed our stop down to 62, and then we ended up trailing it down to 47. Market came back, that final runner, when I say runner, it means there’s a final lot that we want to see if the market’s going to continue to follow through and well run Forrest run. It wasn’t meant to be. Market came back, but got stopped out at 47. So 10 points at $6.25. That’s the tip fluctuation. Basically they added 62 bucks to that one. So, anyways 531.25 was small green trade in the British pound, and then it was at that time that turned our attention to the Ebony S&P, which I’m going to bring up right now.

Okay, so this one I’m going to tell you, I was glad that I packed it in early on this particular tray because what we did here was we initiated long breakout mode positions here at 86 and a half, so it’s 29.86 and a half of course.

Here’s the current quote, of course, but I’m going to talk to you about where we were. It was right here, this area that I circled here, we started to see the market give us that break to the upside. There was good congestion down below. So 29.86 and a half right there. Thing topped out at 87, just a half point higher. That happened real quick, but it was only a half point, not enough to evoke action or or consider going into to risk management mode and or anything. So, ended up just calling it quits on this trade. A point and a half lower. Okay. So this one up here, 86 and a half, and then all six out at 85 as we started to grind low. Didn’t like it, market didn’t follow through, had a tough time breaking above that 87 and following through to the upside.

I was looking for maybe a first tier 88 and a half, and possibly beyond, and just wasn’t meant to be. This is what the market went on to do thereafter. After getting flat at 85 right there, look what the market did. This is a good example, albeit that was a loser for 450, look at where the market went. It came with a lot of volatility and pain and heartache if you stay in that position. Later in the afternoon we did start to see the market start to establish itself in the after lunch hours. You see right here, bottomed out the the demand levels, those green lines held. Then we’re seeing the market make some progress. Kind of a re climb through a little volume hole that’s right here, but it’s pretty quiet in the afternoon.

I feel like I didn’t really miss much on that one. I guess technically we get to say 12 consecutive keeping it green sessions, and that’s great. We’re going to go into tomorrow with a fresh set of eyes, get some, rest. Now don’t be staying up too late watching your Monday Night Football tonight, okay?

Make sure, if you haven’t already signed up to get in and watch Ross’s workshop, which is going on tonight, that’s tonight. So, you can either watch Monday Night Football, or maybe you put Monday Night Football in the background on mute and learn something from my friend Ross Cameron.

That’s all I got for you here today. I look forward to meet you back tomorrow. In the meantime, of course, trade well and be well. Take care everyone.

Bye bye.

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