Warrior Trading Blog

Summer Is Here +$1K | Steve’s Futures Pulse 165


Hello fellow traders, it’s TGI Futures. That’s right, it’s Friday, and we’re ushering in summer in the way we want: in the green. We finished strong this week grabbing over $1,000 between the combination of a NASDAQ and eMini S&P trade, which I’ll show you in today’s recap. I’m super excited because I get to go play some golf today, and I’m going to enjoy the rest of my day and the weekend.

Now, in today’s recap I recorded all the action as it happened live in the Futures Trading chat room, so you get a feel for how these charts come to life, and the exact chart patterns, and how I put my brain on the screen to put together a strategy in front of members. I look forward to meeting you back at the markets, hopefully, on Monday if you join us here in the Warrior Trading chat room. Enjoy the weekend, and happy summer. …

Good morning fellow Futures Warriors. Happy Friday. TGI Futures, as I like to say. Hope you’re doing well. Let’s get right into cycling through our usual suspects, as I like to call them. We’re going to start in the eMini S&P here today. You can see market is doing its best to try and explore breaking above this volume congestion. However, I’m going to tell you once I get my colors straight here … Hold on. There we go. These are all colors that don’t show up well. There you go, how about the yellow?

Harry, I’m going to be watching here, if this market gets there and we’re not there yet, is down below here. I know, I hate to have a pessimistic tone on the S&P. Already down six and a half here. Look at the space if we break down below that 29 51 and a half area on the 10, and you can see that level comes in 29 49 and a half over here. What we’re going to do is we’re going to keep a close eye on both those levels, and we start to get the breakdown there. It’s going to attract our attention for a possible short sale.

I also want to draw your attention to this over here. It’s over on the far left. Remember, that’s our price compression levels, which simply is three levels of support and resistance above and below a neutral zone here that is kind of identified here. That’s the aqua to aqua line right there. Then above, you got a red, blue, and green line. I’ll number them one, two, three. Up above is going to be R, 1, 2, 3. Resistance 1, 2, 3. Down below, S, 1, 2, 3. These are support levels 1, 2, 3.

You can see they seem like they’re far removed from where the market is, at least for now, but how quickly things can change in these markets. So be ready, be vigilant, and sit on the edge of your seat like I am. So point being, when we break into the bear cap down below 29 50 and a quarter there, it’s going to be right about the time we’re breaking down below the demand area here, and awfully close, just a tick or two away from breaking down below 29 49 half. If that happens simultaneously, I’m going to tell you, could be a nice little opportunity for us; but we need to wait for the market to go there.

This rate here right now in the congestion, this is not the place to be entering the trade. Remember, we want to enter these trades if we’re doing short positions where we have congestion up above here. That’s the resistance, that’s going to … just like when we did the Canadian dollar yesterday. We had that congestion up above, we had that follow-through to the downside. We grabbed our profits, and early on in the trade we had a lot of pressure from up above. That’s what pushed that market lower.

So let’s come back to the eMini S&P, we got a little a time. Market hasn’t made that break yet. Moving on over into the August contract. That’s August, month code Q. Your symbol’s going to be CLQ9. I’ll type it here just so you kind of can get used to looking at some things. There you go. That’s what it looks like. On August, crude oil, you can see I got that 10 and 30 minute chart here. This one’s got a disconnect between what the 10 is saying. 10 minute chart’s trying to go into breakdown mode here. You can see back to back, TAZ market maps are showing us these congestion zones in that same zone. Over here on the 30 minute timed horizon, look at this. Follow the yellow brick road, compliments of TAZ, right?

Just stair step it up higher. Remember how TAZ, for those of you who are trading in the overnight, you insomniacs, remember, you just trail on the stop behind the levels. As those demand levels shift, those green lines, you just trail that stop up. Eventually, you will get stopped out. Rest assured, but this is how you’re able to do things like stay in a trade longer than a few minutes, and just kind of ride out a strategy.

For those of you that like swing time trading, which means putting on a trade today and being willing to carry it overnight, two, three, four a day, sometimes five, swing time frame trading. This is very common technique that you need to master, which is the ability to stay out of the way of the market, and leave an open ended profit objective. For us as day traders, remember in here, we’re a bit more aggressive in our profit taking because maybe we’re trading for 30 minutes, an hour, two hours, whatever be the case. Okay, so it’s a little different on the time horizon, so we’re a bit more proactive on our exits.

Needless to say, again, I’m watching the … if there’s going to be a breakdown here, if this 30 minute chart goes into breakdown at 56 99, and we re-break down below also on the 10. … Pardon me. …

So we’re in basically short watch here for the eMini S&P; also for crude oil. So we’ll see if we get either of those making a move for us. Let’s move into the gold market here. Gold’s actually bullish in both time frames. You can see it again, bullish breakout. Our prevailing direction of bias is established by the most recent clothes above our value areas, so again, the most … In short, the most recent time to close above the red line or below the green line, and you can see most recently, of course, above the red here. Also, over here, we’re starting to establish ourself in the bull camp.

Let’s keep cycling through. Let’s take a look at the bonds here. Down almost a handle, golly. Down 25 ticks. Remember 32 ticks and a handle, a full handle is worth 1,000 bucks. 32 ticks, 32 30 seconds. …

Playoff game, Beau, thanks for asking. We did not play yesterday due to conflict, a scheduling conflict. They moved it to Saturday afternoon; so stay tuned for little league baseball playoff update. I’ll let you know. Well Monday, for sure, when I see you.

Let’s look at copper market, the industrial metal now. Copper’s starting to get ready to possibly surge higher. You can see it’s trying to break clear of all this congestion. You can feel that it’s about to try and do that. If it clears in particular up here on the 30, then it’s really going to have some room to navigate; but I got a bullish kind of put this on long watch. Copper’s on long watch. Let me put this on my list actually here, too.

Two things I couldn’t remember, now we got three. That’s at max capacity on my brain space apparently. Here you go, let’s look Australian dollar. We’re going to cycle back through. Remember the first go-around, we go through. Many of you I know go through this process maybe a bit earlier in the day. You’re just trying to go through and kind of get a lay of the land so that you tackle with your risk capital the most opportunistic market. Okay, so here’s Australian dollar. It’s at a nice breakdown trade. You can see early this morning, a little after midnight, look at that. Down, down, down, down, nice breakdown. It’s just now starting to try and make a comeback. 30 minute charts still in breakdown mode over there. You can see.

Let’s take a look at the British pound. British pound in break out. We call it break out mode when we’re going high, or break down mode when we’re breaking to the downside. So 10 minute charts breaking out to the upside. 30 minute chart is breaking down, but back inside the value area. Okay, so disconnect there. I’m going to keep moving along.

Let’s look at the Canadian, which was kind to us yesterday. Down 11 points here right now, a little bearish yet again here. You can see what happened actually in the overnight. Look what happened. Let me go back here. Bom-bom-bom-bom-bom. Look at the nice play in the overnight. Again, those of you that … like trading currencies, the Canadian dollar … You could trade any of these currencies. There’s some decent movement around the clock, obviously still most heavy here. You can see nice little breakdown on the 30 minute chart here. Market’s right back down below our prior entry point as well, 75, 82. You can see that kick back in here on the most recent 75 91, almost same place as we initiated our trade yesterday. Remember, we did 75 90. It was a beautiful thing, 74 90.

Look at how much … how high this thing came up here. I misspoke there, yes. Need another sip of coffee, so let me grab another sip of coffee. It looks bearish for the 30 minute, the longer term time frame. I like how there’s a lot of room down below if you’ve got your TAZ, you can see all that room down below. Look at the big gap down here. Okay.

Let’s talk a little bit about Friday markets. Remember, Friday markets are kind of little, especially when we get into the summer, by the way. Friday markets, mornings no problem. Whatever. When you start to get into the afternoon on Summer Fridays, things are just a little bit thinner than normal. People start to vacation and so forth. Fewer bodies are in front of the screen on Friday afternoons. I just kind of caution you. If you got a nice victory, a nice position in the market, be a bit more aggressive in your profit taking. I’m not going to tell you, you can’t carry thing into the later part of the afternoon because I’ve done it plenty of times, but generally speaking, go enjoy the second half of your Friday and take what the market’s been so kind to give you if you’ve got something heading into the early part of the afternoon.

Japanese Yen. … 30 minutes in break down mode. You can see, and this, you can see we just most recently actually moved back into the bear camp here as well. So Japanese Yen-