Warrior Trading Blog

100% Accuracy on Day 1 of our 5 Day New Members Trial!

100% accuracy

100% Accuracy on Day 1 of our 5 Day New Members Trial!

 

 

Alright everyone, let’s do our mid day market recap and go over the trades from today. Actually, just one trade for me. I kept it simple. One trade, $723 profit and that’s it for me today. I would have loved to see more opportunities, of course, I’d love to have a four, five thousand dollar day at some point this week, but today wasn’t the day and I didn’t push it. I’ve got 100% accuracy, and that is definitely a nice way to start the week, especially for those of you who are here and our five days for $5 trial that’s going on this week. Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday this week, you guys are gonna be able to watch over my shoulder as I’m trading.

Those of you watching this on either YouTube or Facebook Live, of course you’re welcome to join us in the room. This morning we had, I think, around 1,800 traders logged into the chat room all at once, so that was definitely pretty cool, and I’m sure we had over 2,500 or maybe 3,000 traders come through the doors today at various points. Very exciting to have all of you here, and one of my goal this week is to be really focused on quality versus quantity, because I know there’s beginner traders in the room and I want to keep it really simple. I want you guys to be able to see every trade I take as an example of the strategies that I teach in the course.

This trade today on CBIO was the only trade I took. I’ll put up my PNL so you guys can see it. This is my trade in my Lightspeed account, $723. These are my entries and my exits right here. Those of you watching on Facebook Live, you can see my trades right here, $723 and 40 cents with two entries, buying once at 480, doubling at 480 to 4,000 shares. I put out a sell order at 488 after it dropped down for a second and I was a little nervous. I canceled that order, executing zero shares, and then sold 2,000 shares at 495, 1,000 at 499, 500 at 502, and 500 at 504. I was scaling out on the move back up, also not totally sure why I’m getting Google Ad Words for cat food, because I don’t have a cat. But that’s a mystery and a story that we’ll have to talk about on another day.

Anyways, I’ll show you my chart here, CBIO, we’ll pull this back. Alright, the one minute chart. This was on our scanners pre-market, so at 9:15 we were watching this one. We knew that it was gonna be a stock … I hope that doesn’t mean my wife is looking for a cat, because I don’t want a cat. I’m gonna have to speak with her after this Facebook Live. But anyways, CBIO, the reason this was on watch pre-market was because it was gapping up. It was opening higher than it closed on Friday, and there’s only a couple of reasons why that happens, and it was, in this case, because there was a catalyst, there was news. So news out this morning that made traders excited and wanting to buy it up. It was opening up maybe 15% or something like that.

You can see the move started at 471 and continued higher for 77, 486, a little pullback, a move up to 495. Now I was a little bit nervous about buying this as soon as the bell rang for a break of pre-market highs, because this was not a pre-market bull flag. This wasn’t pre-market consolidation. If we opened and we were right here, I would definitely have been a buyer over this level of 487 for a break of pre-market highs, because we would have been opening lower. But when we open extend it, we open right at pre-market highs, that’s when I feel like this is a little too much. It’s up too much, it needs to pull back.

In a really strong market, I’m willing to buy a trade right out of pre-market highs at 495, but we’re not in that market right now. So instead, it makes more sense for me just to sit on my hands and wait for the first pullback, wait for the first opportunity to get a really low risk entry. I’m watching it on the one minute chart and I see the first candle popped up to a high of 95 and then dropped down. The next candle drops down a low of 72, and the next candle here is also red, and then we have this candle here. So you can see I drew these lines, one at 480 and one at 472. This doji candle double bottomed down at 472, so whenever you bounce twice off of a support level there’s some indication that that may be holding up.

I thought, okay, the first candle to make a new high would be over 480. I could get in there with ka stop at 472 that’s an eight cent stop. If I lose 10 cents with 4,000 shares that’s 400 bucks. So eight cents is 320 buck or whatever it is. So I was like, alright, three cents or eight cents, 300 bucks, 400 bucks, stop, I can handle that. So I jumped in first with 2,000 shares, you can see right here this order, and I punched it a second time right away for another 2,000 shares. Usually I do 2,500, in this case I just did 2,000. I was just not totally sure, and a red to green move is not my favorite setup because the very fact that it went red shows weakness, so that already tells me this may not be the easiest setup.

And you can see, for those of you watching on Facebook Live, this doji candle was what became my trigger candle. As the next candle made the new high right here, I was in at 480 as it broke over that level and we popped up a high of 495. Now it popped up to 495 and then it pulled back, and that’s when I decided to put out the order to sell at 488, because all of a sudden I went from being up 15 cents to being break even on the bid. It went down to, I think it was 82 on the bid. I was only up 2 cents and I was like, well, I really don’t want to take a loss on this so maybe I should get just out at 88 if I can.

I put my order at 88, I didn’t get filled, and so I was like, alright, well I’m just gonna cancel the order. Let’s just give this thing a second, see if it can break over 95. And then it pops up and it breaks over 95, and we had this seller at 95 on the ask, maybe 10,000 or 20,000 shares, and he started moving away. Ait was like 10,000, 9,000, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and as I saw that breaking, I put out an order to sell 2,000 shares right at that level, thinking I better scale out because on this candle here, I went from being up 15 cents to break even. I don’t want that to happen again, so I’m just gonna go ahead and sell half. I sold half, it pops up through five dollars and I’m scaling out more at 99, 502 and 504.

Now you never really know how high these are gonna go. In this case, this went up to a high of 504, and I sold 500 shares at 504. So I was actually able to top tick this stock, which was get an exit at high of day. That’s not easy to do, I usually am not top ticking. I’m usually, if anything, selling early or selling a little late. In this case I was able to get out 500 shares right at the top, and then obviously we dropped back down so that that ended up being the right move.

I was thinking that if we could hold this level that right around $5 or maybe 490 it could setup for another opportunity, but the very fact that I was taking a red to green move indicated weakness in the stock, weakness in the name and so I felt that it would be better just to take my profit and, especially in keeping with the fact that right now we’re doing this five days for five dollars trial. I want my accuracy to be on point, I want to take the profit when I have it, be super disciplined, be a good role model, set a good example. That was part of why I said, you know what? Just take your profit. You’re up $700, pay yourself. You can always get back in, right? I can always get back in.

This ended up not giving me the opportunity to get back in because it just rolled over. I think I traded that one really well. The next stock that I was watching and the only other one that I considered trading was CAR, which is Avis Budget Car Company. This pops up quickly from 2,550 all the way to 29 dollars, which is obviously a really big move, on a headline. Now the headline was that Google has decided to put Avis in charge of managing their self driving fleet of cars. I was like, okay, that’s obviously a good headline and I see it squeezing up. There was no pullback opportunity to buy this, so it just squeezed up. And I was watching it for the first red candle.

Now the first candle to go red was right here, but on this one the high was 2,923 and the low, or 2,915, and the low is 2823, so that’s almost a full point, and I felt like I can’t short with this 1,000 shares here because if it goes right back up I’m gonna lose 500 bucks, could even lose 1,000 and I’m gonna give back everything I just made. I don’t have a big enough cushion to take this risk. It did end up popping back up. It popped back all the way up to 2,932. It’s a good thing I didn’t short it here because I would have been down 70 cents or more, which would have been 700 bucks, and yes, I could have averaged down, I could have shorted more up high, but then if it went up to 2,950 or 30, I could have lost 2,000 bucks, and that’s how you take a $700 green day and turn it into a $1,500 red day, and I didn’t want to do that, so I sat on my hands.

It ended up on this false break coming back down quite nicely, and I saw some of you in the chat room trading it, so congrats for those of you that did well on it. I just wasn’t sure I could really manage my risk on it, and it’s always better in this market to be safe than sorry. If we were in a stronger market and I had a bigger cushion on the day I’d be more inclined to be more aggressive, but that just wasn’t today. That about wraps up my morning. For the most part it was a very easy morning. I took one trade, low risk, 700 bucks, that’s a good day. I certainly would like to be over $1,000 a day average. Right now be daily average is about $1,500 a day or so, so I would like to be at that level, but I’m not gonna beat myself up for hitting on 720 bucks. Tomorrow I might have that $3,000 winner, or maybe I’ll have another 700 and then Wednesday I’ll have the big winner.

It’s really just being okay with grinding on low numbers until you get that one big winner. But doing everything you can to have your accuracy as high as possible so you expose yourself to as few losses as you can. You guys probably already know this, but if you have a trading account that has $150,000 in it and you lose $75,000, you’ve lost 50% of that account. What percentage of that account to you need to get back to 150? You just lost 50%. And a lot of people will say, “Well you need to grow it by 50% to get back to 150,000.” And the correct answer is you need to grow it by 100%.

Every time you take a step down it takes two steps to get back up with trading, and that’s something that every serious trader and every investor realizes. What that tells you is you have to do everything possible to minimize your losses and to minimize risk. One of the things that I mentioned in a recent webinar is that over the last few years of trading I’ve actually lost $895,000. Those are my total losses combined. My total profit, my total gains, 1.35 million dollars for a net profit of 450,000, which is good, that’s green, but it doesn’t change the fact that I’ve lost $900,000 in the last few years just in losses. If I could tighten those up, if I could have cut all those losses in half, I’d be up almost a million dollars in the last few years instead of 450,000.

It really tells you the importance of tightening those stops, keep the losses as small as possible. I know it’s easy to get a little complacent and just hold these losses a little too long, but anything you can do to tighten them up is gonna be really important. It just makes it that much easier for you to be a successful trader. Today’s one of those days where I chose to trade less, but to focus on quality. It worked out well and I plan to do the same thing tomorrow. Hopefully we have some good opportunities so I can get a decent sized winner, but I’m also perfectly content to grind on 500 to $1,000 a day until I see that next really good opportunity.

For me, I realize that when I have a good opportunity on that one trade, I can make 5,000, 10,000, or even $15,000, so I have to be able to pace myself, bide my time until that setup presents itself, and then be ready to strike. Alright, so that’s it for today. I’m gonna jump into some sessions with students this afternoon and I’ll be back first thing tomorrow morning for our pre-market analysis starting around 9 AM, live trading at 9:30 and then another midday recap around lunch time tomorrow. Okay, so that’s it for today. If you guys are gonna trade through the afternoon, remember to trade smart, manage your risk, cut back your sizes. Afternoon is usually choppy, lunch time is usually choppy so just make sure you’re really smart about your trades. Okay, that’s it for now, I’ll see you guys tomorrow morning.

Oh hey, I didn’t see you there. I was just working on the dream board for my next home run trade. Hopefully, it comes soon. Until then make sure you subscribe to get email alerts anytime I go love or upload new videos. Until then, happy surfing.