Warrior Trading Blog

11th Consecutive Green Day +$1,967.25 in 1hr

green day

11th Consecutive Green Day +$1,967.25 in 1hr

 

 

What’s up guys? All right, so time for our mid-day market recap, go over the trades from today. Today is the 11th consecutive green day. Finishing the day up $1967.25, which is awesome. I’m actually up, let’s see, $22,377.75 since the hot streak began. This is always, it’s always nice to come out of a slump and come into a really nice hot streak. You guys have all seen every single day of this year that I’ve traded, I’ve done a mid-day recap and at the end of each month, I’ve posted my broker statements. I’ve had some great months, and I’ve had some bad months. You guys have been able to watch through this whole time.

I’m sure there are traders when I was having a cold streak who were thinking that, “Oh, he doesn’t even know how to trade. Look at him. He’s just lost money for three weeks in a row,” or whatever it is, but that’s the cycle of the market. You have hot streaks, and you’ve got cold streaks, and the goal is that long-term, when you step back and look at the big picture, that you’re consistently profitable. Finishing the day up just under $2000, obviously awesome. Awesome morning. On the month, that puts me up right around a little under 12 grand on the month, which is not bad considering this is only the 7th day. Actually, this is only the 6th trading day of the month. We still have 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, I think 9 more … No, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 more days in the month so we’ve got all of next week, all of the week after.

Then the following Monday, the 31st, so 10, 13, 14, 15 more days. We’ve got time in the month, so hopefully this will end up being a really strong month. Despite the fact that today’s an awesome day with $1900 in profit, I haven’t had a really good home run trade. These are all base hits. 1300 bucks is a good base hit. $650 is a good base hit. 3, 4, $5000 winners and up, those are more like home run trades for me, $5000 and up. A really good day is when I’ll have maybe two $5000 winners. An amazing day is when I have three or four of them.

My best day of the year so far was $22,000 and I believe on that day, I had two $7000 winners and then two $4000 winners or something like that. Again, it wasn’t like one trade, but it was like four home run trades. Today is a day where I got two base hits, and I’m totally happy with that. Yesterday I got a couple of base hits. I finished the day up 960 bucks. Friday, a couple of base hits, finished the day up 1600 bucks. The last really big day I had was on, well Thursday I made 2800 bucks. Last Monday I made 3 grand, but the last really big day was in June on the 28th when I made 5000.

Certainly, it would be nice to have another big green day like that, but in any case, today is day 127, 127th trading day of the year, finishing up $1967.25, 11th consecutive green day. For those of you watching on Facebook Live, you can see my P&L right here. TEUM, $652.50 and SPEX, $1314.75. Let’s take a look at those trades and how I executed on them. All right, so first trade this morning was on SPEX. What I liked about SPEX was the really strong daily chart. This had a fantastic daily chart for a breakout. It had a big squeeze. It’s a former runner. History of making big moves. Had this move from $1 all the way up to $4.50 about a week and a half ago.

It pulled back and it’s now consolidated on the nine moving average. What would have really probably made this perfect was if we had breaking news today. Obviously we didn’t. That would’ve been perfect, but despite that, we still had a really strong technical breakout. First candle to make a new high as we curl up, this sort of squeezed at the close and then after hours, it was moving just a little bit higher, so I was watching it pre-market. As soon as the bell rang, it dipped down for a second. I got in for the red to green move. You can see I have a 10 second chart up. I’ll switch to one minute. I only had that up because we were trading stocks earlier today, and we were getting halted on circuit breakers.

Red to green move here, entry was at 70 … What was it? I got in at … Let me go back. Now I’m trying to remember. My entry was at 76. I had a 76 average, 10,000 shares. We pop up to a high of 3.03, which is like 2300 bucks. Not bad. I sold about half of my position through this consolidation at 3. I was waiting for the break over 3, and I was prepared to add back for the break. We didn’t end up getting that break. We came down to the 20 moving average. I held on this pullback. I was even considering adding over 90, and then when this candle here, we dropped, and I stopped out because we broke the low of the pullback right here.

This was my new stop, the low of the previous pullback. That was 1.85 or 1.82, so I ended up stopping out the rest there. Then I could’ve made a little more on it, but I also thought over $3, if this thing really started to open up, get up to 3.50, 3.75, $4, then I’d be holding with a really good cost basis, a really good average price, so didn’t end up holding those levels. Not super surprising. You can see, this is a stock where there’s opportunities on both sides. If you’re a long biased trader, you can trade to move up. If you’re a short biased trader, you can trade to move back down.

Stocks have range, give you opportunities both to the long side and the short side. That’s why we trade them. I happen to be a long biased trader. I think it’s easier to trade the market to the long side, but there are traders who absolutely trade both sides. They’ll trade to the long side and then they’ll switch and flip short, and ride the move back down, which in this case worked well. In the case of a stock like Yuma yesterday, let me pull this one up, yesterday we got this move, this squeeze up, and then yes, it came back down but it curled up, consolidating, curled up, curled up, curled up and then ended up squeezing in the afternoon all the way up to 2.35.

This happened to be a really strong stock. It had more opportunity on the long side than on the short side. Today, SPEX had a little more on the short side than the long side, so it all kind of balances out. Anyway, so that was Yuma. Next one, TEUM. This one pops up on the scanner as it breaks through $1. We’ve seen a lot of these stocks that break through the $1 price range.

Generally I don’t like them this cheap because to make good money, you have to take really big size, but as I saw it squeezing up, I thought I would take a stab. I got in with 7500 shares at 1.25 and it squeezed up to 1.38 and then it got halted. Reopens five minutes later on a circuit breaker halt, and it squeezes up to 1.40 all the way up to 1.51. Pulls back, consolidates, I sold about 3/4 of my position through this move.

Locked up $800 and then I added back for the break over the half dollar on this one minute micro pullback right here. I added back at 44, and as we squeezed up, we hit a circuit breaker halt at 1.54. On this one, I thought that we were going to hit that circuit breaker and we would open higher, we would open around 1.60, 1.70, maybe get that test of $2, which is a 200 moving average. As it turns out on this one, we ended up opening a little bit lower and I stopped out with a $200 loss so I gave back a little bit of profit, although, and this will be interesting to see how this gets reported on my trades for the day, I don’t think this is going to be considered a loss because my cost basis was … I never actually closed the position so I added at 25, sold 3/4 and then added back at 43, and then sold the whole thing at like 38.

I gave back a little profit, but I don’t think it would be considered a stand alone trade. I’ll see what it looks like when I import it into Trader View. I think because I was adding to the position, it’ll just be considered one trade and it’ll show me as having 12,500 shares with a higher cost basis because I had 7500, sold, and then added them back. That’s what I think, but we’ll see. Depending on how you count that, you could count that as a losing trade because I didn’t make money on the add, but I’m not sure if it’ll be counted as a stand alone trade.

That really only impacts my accuracy. It doesn’t make any difference other than accuracy. If it was a winner, then I took two trades today and have two winners. If it was a loser, I took three trades and had two winners and one losers. It just depends. I believe because I didn’t close the position that it’s just going to be considered one trade. Anyways, that’s TEUM. You can see it’s curling back up here, so again, this one’s showing a little bit more strength to the long side. I liked this one because it had a catalyst. There was news out this morning and that’s what gave me the confidence to jump in it and be aggressive.

The high of day is 1.53, but of course at this time of day, 11:30, I’ve already hit my daily goal. At this point, my work is done. I can just walk away from the market. One thing I encourage you guys to think about it your emotional and mental capacity each day. It looks like it’s halted right here. It’s going to be halted on a circuit breaker for five minutes as it just squeezed up. Mental capacity is something that’s important to be mindful of. I know there are a lot of traders, especially beginner traders, who feel like they need to trade all day long, need to trade through the lunch hour, need to trade through the afternoon.

They don’t want to miss an opportunity. It’s that fear of missing out. God forbid something happens when you walk away for three minutes, like this, you end up beating yourself up over it. I don’t do that. I understand that I get decision fatigue after a certain period of the day. What we’re doing all day long is making pretty important decisions, risk and reward analysis. What’s the risk on this trade? Can I justify it based on the reward potential? After you’ve done that 50 times on all these different stocks and all these different setups each morning, at a certain point, you can start to get a little bit burned out and that’s when you’re more apt to make mistakes.

If you go grab some lunch and then you come back from lunch and you’re a little tired, and you’re just more chilled out, you’re not on your game, you’re not as focused. In this market, in this career as a trader, you need to be at peak performance any time you come into the market to trade because there’s someone on the other side of that trade that’s looking to take your money from you, so you just have to be so alert. You have to be so on the ball that if you’re not, you’re just going to lose money.

It takes a really good sense of, a high level of self-awareness to know when you’re focused and when you’re not, when you’re getting emotional, when you’re getting stubborn, when you’re getting into a revenge trading mode. When you stat to sense those feelings peaking up, you need to step back. You need to walk away. I know it’s hard. It’s easier said than done, but it’s so important.

One of the leading causes of failure is that inability to step back because those days where you get emotional, you get frustrated, you can end up losing, you could end up blowing up your account. You can end up losing tens of thousands of dollars because you’re frustrated, maxing out your buying power, getting more and more aggressive, getting more and more stubborn. Let’s say someone shorted this in the 1.40’s and is like, “I’m going to cover this at 80 cents tomorrow morning,” all of sudden now it’s $1.54. You’ve got two choices. One choice is that you thrown in the towel and you sell, and the other choice is that you start getting stubborn and you start adding to the position.

Let me see if I can find this post I put on StockTwits the other day. I put a good post on StockTwits about a student who averaged down last week on SPEX. Let’s see. I’ve just got to scroll back here and grab it. When you get into that habit of being emotional and getting stubborn, you can really get yourself into a lot of trouble. Let’s see. All right, I’ve got the screenshot here. While we wait for TEUM to resume trading, it’s halted on a five minute circuit breaker halt, so it’ll resume in about five minutes here.

Okay, so this is a trader, one of our students who is in the [Sim 00:14:38], so he bought SPEX on this one minute setup right here. He bought 1000 shares at 3.68 on this candle that ended up being a false breakout, which is disappointing. I think I got in there as well and stopped out. Well, in this red candle it dropped, and in the simulator, he was down 250 bucks. He decided to add another 1000 shares, so his new cost basis, his new average was 3.55. I’ll show you guys this who are watching.

First entry up here at 3.68 and then it drops. He’s down 250 and he decides to add right here. It ends up dropping again. Now, with 2000 shares, he’s down 600 bucks. He’s down 30 cents and he decides to add another 2000 shares because he’s like, “Oh, I’m just going to average down. This will probably bounce back up. It’s a strong stock.” Now he has a new average of $3.40 with 4000 shares. Look at the next morning. It opens lower and he ends up stopping out here at 2.40 and he loses $4000. This is a preventable loss and this is why it’s good he’s trading in the simulator because realistically, he should’ve just stopped out at the low of this pullback right here.

He should’ve taken this $250 loss and bailed out of the trade. This is something that a lot of us have learned the hard way. Having done things like this multiple times, at a certain point you realize, “Okay, I can’t be stubborn. I can’t get into this game of adding and adding and adding.” That only works if you have, it only works if you have an unlimited amount of money and you have some ability to really know what the stock is going to do in the future, and you don’t. Nobody does.

Even if you’re like Bill [Ackman 00:16:31] and you’ve got billions of dollars, look at [VRX 00:16:33], he averaged down. He added and added and that did not working out for him, so even the huge accounts, you still can’t get past that. You have to stick with knowing your max loss. As a day trader, knowing when you should be in the market and when you should get out and go enjoy the day. It’s July. The weather’s been pretty nice. This is a great time of year to spend some time outside, so do your trading in the morning and then get out. Walk away.

Don’t beat yourself up for missing TEUM right here. We hit it on an easy opportunity right here in the morning, and made our money on it, and that’s our job. Any single day that you walk away with more money than you give back, you’re doing something 9 out of 10 traders can’t do.

Although some of the traders who are trading this right now maybe are already green on the day, I suspect that a lot of traders who get into trading at this time of the day are the ones who didn’t make money in the morning and they’re trying to compensate for that, so maybe they’re short and they’re averaging down or they’re marketing out and losing money, or they’re long traders buying this really, really high and they’re going to get stopped out if it drops down quickly.

That’s when you start to get the afternoon chop. Traders marketing in and marketing out, and that’s a very difficult environment to trade through, so I don’t care at all that I’m not trading this right now. Same with Yuma yesterday, I saw in the afternoon, like I said, it squeezed up here to 2.35. I remember at one point, there was a point where I would see this and I would feel upset that I wasn’t trading it. I’d feel like, “Man, I missed this opportunity,” and then I realized that I shouldn’t think of it like that. I traded during the time of day when I do best. I made money today on that day, and I should be happy with that, so I encourage you guys to try to embrace that mentality as much as you can.

All right, so anyways, that’s about it for today. Another solid day, good easy trading, and I’m looking forward to seeing what we have in store for us tomorrow. Right now I’m up, like I said, about $12,000 on the month, about 2700 on the week and about $22,000 since this hot streak began about two, two and a half weeks ago, so loving the momentum.

Going to keep riding this wave as long as I can, build up my account, and then when things slow down a little bit I’ll be able to step back and know that all of these gains will tithe me over through that inevitable slow period that will come, whether it’s a week from now or whether it’s a month or two months from now.

Okay, so I’ll put TEUM back on the chart so you guys can watch it if you want to, and I will see you later today. Students, we’ve got a Warrior Pro session at 3 PM Eastern time. All right, so 3 PM Eastern time, Warrior Pro session, and I will see you guys there. Okay, see you in a little bit.

Oh, hey. I didn’t see you there. I was just working on the dream board for my next home run trade. Hopefully it comes soon. Until then, make sure you subscribe to get email alerts anytime I go live or upload new videos. Until then, happy surfing.