Warrior Trading Blog

+5.1k Hitting the Momentum in 30min on $ZN and $MBRX

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+5.1k Hitting the Momentum in 30min on $ZN and $MBRX

 

 

All right, guys, so let’s do our mid-day market recap. We’re coming to the end of the first two hours, and you’d be hard pressed to take this smile off my face as I’ve finished the day at $5161.24. Finally, a really nice, big, green day. That’s what I needed. That’s what I was hoping to have this week. That puts me up about $7,000 on the week. This week I’ve also been on point with accuracy. Eight trades, eight winners. 100% accuracy in the last three days. You really can’t ask for a lot more than that. I mean, even that’s a lot to ask for. 100% accuracy is not going to last forever. I’ll take it as long as I can get it.

It’s going to help boost up my average accuracy for the entire month, and so I love it. It’s great. We’ve had three really solid days, and I’ve just been really focused, like I said, on trade the best, leave the rest. I’ve really wanted to set a good example for everyone that’s been part of this five day for $5 trial in the warrior trading chat room. I think that has been … You know, at the same time, I of course always have the pressure of wanting to be a really good trader for all of our students and everyone that follows me on youtube and Facebook and everything else.

There’s definitely a lot of pressure there, but I think sometimes that pressure can encourage me to get a little risky or start trading out of frustration, because I’m feeling desperate to have a really good trade, or a really big winner, you know? Maybe after a period of four or five days of just slow trading I feel like I need to deliver something. Now, that pressure is a little different than the pressure of having all of these traders that are part of this trial, because I wasn’t really concerned about making a lot of money. I was more focused on having really good quality trades, really good education for our students. I think what’s different there is that on social media, people of course love to see the big winners.

If you’re making $180 a day or $320 a day, that’s fantastic, but no one on Facebook or youtube cares. Those are small winners. I always sort of eel that pressure to have big winners, like today, $5000. That’s significant. That’s something that’s worth a thumbs up, or a comment, or whatever it is. The fact is in the chat room, that’s not what you guys really care about. I mean, I could have just as easily made $500 today and you guys would be just as happy because of the set up was good quality. It was a good entry, a good exit, it was a good trade, and the amount of money for you guys is irrelevant. Those are sort of two disconnected pressures that I have. One is the pressure to be really accurate, have really good quality trades for the community, and then the other is kind of with the larger community sees when they look at me.

They are probably expecting that I’m having 10, 20, $30,000 days because I’m the guy that took $583 and turned it into $100,000 in 44 days. That was an incredible feat. It was an incredible journey. I don’t know that I would be able to do that again today if I started again today. I think I was just really in the zone. It’s kind of like setting a world record for something. You may not be able to do it five times in a row, because then you’re just continuing to drop the record better and better and better. Sometimes you just have this burst of strength and focus, the timing is right, everything comes together. That’s the day you set the record. I think that’s kind of the way it is for me. It’s kind of like if you think … For those of you who have ever played Pac-Man and you’re playing and it’s like okay, first level’s down, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh.

You’re building up your extra lives. You’re like, “This is the one. I’m in the zone. Everything is coming together.” The perfect amount of mozzarella grease on the controller. Everything is just you’re in the zone, whereas other times, you start and you lose a life on the first level, and you’re like, “At this point, I might as well just start over, because I’ve already screwed myself up. I’m not going to break the record on this round. Do I even keep going or do I just start over?” I think that’s kind of the way it is when I do these journeys, these trading challenges of starting with really small amounts of money. If I end up screwing up in the first couple of days, it can really just put a dent in how things are going to work. Sometimes you’re just in the zone and everything is working.

Other times, you’re not. All of that is just to say that yes, first quarter of 2017 was incredible, huge wins, fantastic three months. Second quarter for me has been a little bit slower. I think the pressure to try to continue that exponential growth was encouraging me to take a lot of risks, which is why in April I ended up having some days where I lost a lot of money just being too aggressive and then in May I sort of had to readjust, scale back, settle for smaller wins, and in June, it’s kind of been a mix of April and May, a few bigger losses being too aggressive, a few days where I know I let frustration get the best of me, feeling like now it’s been a couple of months of slow trading.

I need to start producing something. I need to find something. I need to be more aggressive, and of course, that resulted in losses. Coming into this week, I think that yes, I wanted to make $5000, but I really just wanted to deliver really good content for everyone that’s in the chat room in the community. That’s what was really important to me. I feel really good about where we’re at here on Wednesday. I think that you guys have all done really well. I got an email last night from a student who yesterday made over $15,000 trading the same stocks that we were trading. I saw a student today who made $5000 on ZN, so I love seeing those big winners. Yesterday, the students who said they had made money made a combined profit of $77,000, which is just awesome.

I’m really pleased to see that. Let’s go over the trades from today. I’ll break them down, and if you have questions, I can answer them here in the chatroom. Those of you guys watching on Facebook live, this is my PNL for today. Two stocks I traded, MBRX, $288 and ZN, $4,873.24. All right, I’ll flip this around and get this up for those of you who are watching on screen share. I post the PNL on stocktwit, so I just got to log in and grab it. Okay, go. Okay, so there’s today, the two stocks traded. All right, so first stock was ZN. Now, on the watch list this morning, I had a few on watch.

I said I’m watching MBRX. I’m watching ZN, the two stocks I traded. I was also watching APDN, SPEX, and ETRM. Those are the five stocks I was watching today. Let’s look at those five just from the pre-market perspective. Pre-market, ZN had a pre-market high of 333, and I said, “Listen, guys, I like this because I did well on it yesterday, made like $300 on it, or $400, whatever it was. It had this sudden move from $290 up to $338, and it’s the same stock that a couple of weeks ago made a huge move from $2 to nearly $4.” It has a history of making some pretty big moves. Keep it on watch for continuation over yesterday’s high.

This was a continuation set up. I was watching it for a long over $335, sorry, $333. Now, it popped up in the first one minute candle, and I was like, “Wow, okay, this thing is for sure showing some strength,” and this candle popped up to … Actually I got to scale back to a 30 second candle. Let’s see. Popped up to a high of $35 right here, and at $35, there was a 25,000 share seller. Now, as I saw that seller, I thought to myself, this may be someone who’s trying to short the stock. What they may not realize is that this is a stock that has a lot of potential. It has no resistance on the daily chart until $4. It has a history of making big moves, and yesterday it made a pretty big move.

When I saw it starting to spike up, what I thought in my mind was that if this breaks $335, almost guaranteed it’ll hit $350. If it gets over $350, which I expect it will, and I expect it will because it’s going to hit the high day scanners. It’s going to be one of the few stocks that are moving. Not a lot was moving at that time, and it has this history of being a runner. As it breaks over 50, from there if someone was short at 35, they would probably cover. If they’re shorting with big size, that’s going to give us that additional move up towards $355, $360, from $360 next target $375. Over $375, $4. Kind of these stocks go in often quarters. That was my mental target. Now, I decided on this one to be a little more aggressive. I started buying 2500 share blocks, 2500 shares, and I pressed it once, twice, three times, four times, five times, six times, seven times, eight times, nine times, 10 times.

Now, you might say, “Why would you press the order 10 times instead of just once buying 25,000 shares?” Well, the reality is I don’t know whether or not that’s a hidden order. That could be someone selling 250,000 shares and only showing 25,000, so what I do is I start buying. You guys, is my headset … I think my speakers just went out. It’s like they popped really loud. Well, you guys can still hear me, but I think my speakers are gone, so that was weird. Anyways, I’ll unplug this. So ZN. Right, so I thought there was a hidden seller there. There was a potential for a hidden seller. If there had been a hidden seller, then if I bought 25,000 shares, the ask wouldn’t have moved at all.

It wouldn’t have gone up, and I now would be in top tick and it could drop fast. I start accumulating. When I’m accumulating a position, I’m looking at the level two, and what I want to see is at the 25,000 share seller is getting smaller and smaller and smaller, so it’s 25,000, 24, 23, 22, 21, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, nine, eight, seven, six, and then boom. When that seller moves, when he’s finally gone, all of the sudden, we often see a quick pop. I’ve gone over this 1000 times in the classes. We see it again and again and again. That, again, is the value of being able to read level two and see level two.

I was adding as I saw that seller was going down, because that’s what told me it’s not a hidden seller. That’s just 25,000 shares for sale, I’m going to buy them. I buy them up and there we go up to 45, so now I’m up 10 cents, which is $2500, and I’m like, “Okay, that’s fine,” but I’m looking for $350. It then goes up to a high of $357. It pulls back for just a moment right here at $353. I’m still holding. Not selling. I’m thinking okay, next level it needs to break over the high of $357. What’s it do? It squeezes up to a high of $366, $366, $366. I had half a mind to add at $366. I was thinking I could consider adding 5000 shares up here at $366, because look, my average is $335. I’m already up 30 cents.

Right at that moment I was up 30 cents on 25,000 shares. That’s $7500 of profit. In my mind, I thought if I add at 66 and this thing goes up 66, 69, 70, 75, and starts to squeeze up to 80, we could retest the previous high back here. Now, I wouldn’t have been surprised if we tapped it and then pulled back off that level. I wasn’t necessarily thinking we would break for or hold over for, but first double top at that level. As we squeezed up to … As we were in my mind thinking we’d squeeze up to 95. That’s where I would start scaling out, in the 90s, 95, and then maybe look to sell some over the whole dollar of four if it did pop over that level. That ended up not happening, and it started to come back down here.

In this candle, we dropped down to 53. We popped back up to 66, dropped down to 53, and this is where I said, “You know what? You better start unloading some of this position and holding the rest with a stop at 50,” so I started selling at 55. I put orders out on the ask to sell in the ask. I sold some shares on the ask at, let’s see, 57 and 56. I sold 10,000. I sold some on the ask at 55. Then, I sold the rest on the bid at 50 and 51.

In total, I made a little under 20 cents per share with 25,000 shares, which is nearly $5,000. That’s a good trade, but what was the potential on this trade? The potential was a move up to $4. That’s almost 70 cents. That’s a really, really big winner. That’s a $15,000, $16,000 trade. That was the potential. Now, you guys have seen this happen a couple of times. I was lining myself up for that same potential on MBRX, a move from $2 up to $2.50. I only made like $400 on that trade, but I could have made $8000 or $10,000. If I keep lining myself up for these trades, it’s only a matter of time until it connects. That’s what I’m doing. I’m trading just the best quality setups. On the best quality setups, I’m being more aggressive knowing that inevitably I will have one of these trades where I get in, it goes up to 50, breaks over that level up to 65, 75, 80, and then all the way up to $4.

Now, my best day of the year right now is $22,000 in one day. Today’s not bad. I’m up $5000, but these were … Well, at least the trade on ZN, this is a trade that really didn’t reach its full potential, and I was still able to capture $5000. When I started adding at 33, or whatever it was, and kept adding at 35, my initial stop in the back of my mind was 10 cents, so I was like I’ll stop out at 25. Now, this is the thing. If you trade with big size, you usually need to keep pretty tight stops, and that’s true whether you’re long or you’re short.

If you’re short at 35 with 25,000 shares and it pops up to 50, you’re down 15 cents, suddenly you’re starting to get squeezed a little bit and you’re going to think I can’t hold this forever. When do I bail out? It goes up to 55, to 65. Are you still holding? Now you’re down $6000. It goes up to 75, 85. Do you still hold? At what point do you throw in the towel? When you trade with big size, you usually keep tight stops, which is why when those stocks start to move in 30 cent increments, they start to really squeeze out people who short early. Now, the same is true on the long side. When this pulls back in 30 cent pull back, it squeezes out whatever … Pressures anyone who bought too high.

You want to be careful not to take an entry that’s too high. If I’d gotten filled at 30 and it immediately dropped to 25, I would have had to bail out on the bid, and I probably would have lost at least $2500. I probably would have started selling a little early if it dropped right away, but it could have been a $3000 loser. That was the risk. The risk was higher on that trade, but risk/reward was still there, because the reward potential if it had worked the way I wanted it to, easily $8-10,000, and it could have been 15 or even $20,000 if it just totally took off. I mean, this is a day two weeks ago where it went from $2 to $4. Today could it have gone from $3 to $6? It’s possible. It had no news on this day. No news today.

Yeah, it’s possible. It could have happened. It just didn’t happen to. Again, when we get into a market where we’re seeing strength in momentum names. We’ve been seeing some good strength over the last few days. I’m going to be more aggressive. I will for sure, on days where we’re seeing stocks squeezing into circuit breaker halts try to capitalize on those opportunities. I mean, we don’t see them every single day of the year, you know? Every couple of months we’ll have a day like we had in November. GLBS, DCIX, DRYS, EC. I mean, shit, those were five stocks that all made 50-100% intra day moves and that you easily could have been really aggressive taking 15-20,000 shares and not just getting 30 cents but getting two or three points per share. 20 or 30 or $40,000 per trade. There were like five of them happening at once.

The question there might have been is your account big enough to be as aggressive as you want to be on that type of day? Anyways, that was the trade on ZN, a good trade. Again, not exactly what I wanted it to do, but still a winner. It ended up pulling back off those highs consolidating here. Someone asked about IDXG and why I did not trade it. I didn’t trade it because it was too cheap. I don’t really like the $1 price range. I prefer $1.50 or higher. Robert, the reason why I was that much more aggressive with that particular trade on ZN was for a couple of reasons. One, the history of making a big move. The fact that it was one of the few stocks that looked good today, a strong daily chart, and the fact that I saw buyers coming in.

It had already shown strength because in that first candle, it had already popped up from the open price, which was, let’s see, it had already popped from $321 up to $335, so it had already moved up 14 cents. To me, it was showing some strength, so I wanted to take a position on that as early as I could knowing that this may be one of those ones that doesn’t give us a good pull back. AVEO, for instance, today, I didn’t trade this, but very similar. All of a sudden, it kind of squeezes up from $215 up to $240. This really fantastic move, and it can’t hold that level and comes all the way back down. Sometimes you have a short term opportunity to get into these trades, capture your profit, and then get out of the way.

That’s AVO. MBRX, right here, this was the second one that I traded today. Didn’t really work out as well as I wanted it to. I took the one minute pull back right here after the fresh five minute break out, and it ended up being a false break. I got in at $210. It popped up to a high of $217 and didn’t hold that level and came back down. I had 10,000 shares and made two cents, 2.8 cents, so $288 on that trade. That didn’t end up working out as well as I wanted it to. It’s continuing to show some strength, resistance around 250 at the 200 moving average. At this point, I don’t know if I would trade it again, but probably just take my profit and be done. One of the things I mentioned earlier was the fact that most of the days where I have 10, 15, or $20,000 of profit start the way today started, with one trade, one $4-5000 winner.

Then from there, I start adding, and I add and add and add. That’s when we start to see these big trades. Today is a day where I got the start, and then it didn’t really continue. Okay, so anyways, that’s about it for me here today coming into the lunch hour. Good trading all around. I know many of you guys in the room did really well today also, so happy for that. We’ll be back at it first thing tomorrow morning. Finish up the week Thursday and Friday with some strong trades, and this will be finishing up the last week of June. Yes, SPEX, S-P-E-X, this was on the watch list this morning. Also was a good trade, but I didn’t take it. I just felt like I missed the opportunity. Another one of those ones that just sort of took off, didn’t really pull back, and that makes it hard to manage risk on.

All right, that’s it for me. I’ll see you all first thing tomorrow morning. Bye, guys.

Oh hey, I didn’t see you there. I was just working on the dream board for my next home run trade. Hopefully it comes soon. Until then, make sure you subscribe to get email alerts any time I go live or upload new videos. Until then, happy surfing.