Warrior Trading Blog

93% Accuracy this week as I finish with 1 last Green Trade!

accuracy

93% Accuracy this week as I finish with 1 last Green Trade!

 

 

 

Okay, so we’re going to do our midday market recap here, go over the trades from today. Today was one trade, not a very busy day for me. One trade of $233 and that’ll wrap up the week for me right around $8,300-8,400 on the week, which is a great week. Now, Jeff’s up $22,000 on the week, so he definitely really made the most of this week. We’ve had some great opportunities, it’s been a great week, and I’m happy with my $8,000 or whatever it is.

The one trade today, $233, definitely the slowest day of the week for me, but that’s not surprising for a Friday that we kind of finished the week with just a couple trades. We simply didn’t see as many good opportunities today, and so I did the smart thing. I didn’t force it. I in total took 15 trades this week, and I’m green on 14 out of 15. That’s 93% accuracy. If I could do that every week, I would be a very happy camper.

SKLN, my one trade of the day, this was gapping up this morning on our gap scanners. We were watching it. It was our leading gapper this morning, and we knew it was going to be in play. We knew it. It was the leading gapper, it had a headline, it’s a former runner, but I was a little unsure about it. I didn’t buy as soon as the bell rang. We had this little red candle right before the market opened, and essentially if I had bought the top of that red candle I feel like I would have been buying an extended stock. It would have been really stretched out.

High of day or high of pre-market was 188. It had pulled back, came up, and so I thought, “You know what? I need to wait for it to pull back and then maybe I’ll get in for red to green move.” That’s exactly what I did. I got in right here on the five minute chart. First candle to make a new high, 178 in with 12,500 shares. We get the move up to 188, not bad. Obviously didn’t make the full $0.10 on it. Ended up stopping on us, it came back down and you can see here, it just didn’t hold that level. It was a [dogee 00:02:17]. It popped up and then came back down.

It did the same thing on the one minute red to green move right here, from 170 up to 183. Ended up being a dogee. I knew it was risky to try it here. I started with 7,500 shares and added 5,000, so I didn’t go all in with 12,500 on the first trade. It just didn’t hold that level, so whatever. You know, it was worth a try, but just didn’t really give me what I wanted.

Other stocks that were in play today, CHFS, some traders were watching this one, but you guys can probably guess I wasn’t interested in it for two reasons. Number one, it’s cheap stock. Number two, it had sold off pre-market, and as of right now it has 32 million shares of volume. That’s a lot of volume. It’s pretty crowded. When I say crowded it means that you have a tug of war going on. You’ve got a lot of traders with really strong short bias. You have a lot of traders with a really strong long bias, and what ends up happening when you have that crowded tug of war nature is that you’ll see the stock pop up and drop in these sort of $.10 channels. It whips around a lot more.

You can see here, right here it went up to 157, all the way back down to 137. Back up, back down, just all over the place, and that makes it harder to manage risk. To trade these kinds of stocks you kind of have to take a position and just hold it for a while. You can’t really scout the breakouts, because the breakouts aren’t very clean. This right here was the first five minute candle to make a new high, and it was like dogee, dogee, dogee, dogee, dogee. Four or five in a row, so no trades for me on that one.

DPW also active today, but it’s a penny stock, on the cheap side. Yes, it made a great move from $0.70 up to $1.05, but I didn’t feel good about it. SRSC is actually halted right now. Not one I feel super comfortable with. It’s hard for me to really feel comfortable trading this price range. Resistance here at 156, the reality is it just popped up from $1 to $1.10. Let’s see, and then from $1.10 it squeezed up to $1.25, $1.28 and it was halted on a circuit breaker for five minutes. It resumes and squeezes here up a little higher to $1.40, $1.49.

You know, is it tempting? A little bit, but it’s going to get halted every time it moves 10%. Because of that, 10% right now on this one is going to be like $0.15, so if it gets into the 60s it’s probably going to get halted again. Right here it dropped down to 23. I’m actually surprised that hasn’t gotten halted already, but the high there is 155. It’s up 163% and I think it’s halted like four times today. It halted once at 9:45, a second time at 10:05, a third time at 9:53, a fourth time right here, and now a fifth time right here, it just got halted again.

Am I going to be the guy that buys it after the fifth circuit breaker halt? I don’t know. What’s the potential on this? You’d have to take some pretty big size to make good money on it. By taking five, 10, 15, 20,000 shares. You’re starting to really increase your risk. It’s already up 167% right now. I’ll keep it on watch. If it really shows me something that I think I can jump on, I might buy on a five minute pull back. I wouldn’t buy it up here on a one minute setup. It’s just too extended.

Don’t feel bad when you see a stock up this much and you’re not in it, because the only safe place to get in this really was right down here at $1.10. When was the last time you guys saw me buy stock at $1.10? I almost never trade that cheap, I almost never. Below $1.50 is pretty much off limits for me. Right here, I wouldn’t have been a buyer. All of a sudden it pops up, it’s halted, so I’m not going to feel bad I’m not in it right now. The only place I could have gotten in would just be to buy, like, on a market order, just to jump in as a squeezing. That’s not how you make a living as a trader. You make a living as a trader managing risk.

We’ll see what it does. It’s going to be halted now for another five minutes. Yes, it could open higher. Anyone who is short is obviously getting squeezed a little bit, but I don’t know. I would personally wait for a five minute pull back. You know, one, two, three, five minute candles pulling back, and then the first one to make a new high is where I would get in. Remember, you don’t want to get halted in these when they’re dropping, because when it drops 10% it gets halted, it’ll usually open lower, and that’s when you can lose a good amount of money. We’ll keep it on watch here, but anyways.

Overall, let’s see, we had CHFS. We had DPW, SRSC, those are some of the lower price stocks that we’re moving today. CNAT started to pop up and then got heavy. This is kind of why you don’t just buy something squeezing, it can quickly go the wrong direction and then you’ve positioned yourself in a really bad way.

For me, statistically the next best chance for me to have a big winner, when do you guys think it would be? Monday between 9:30 and 10:30. Right now it’s 11:30AM. You look at my stats for the month of June and all of my big winners are in the morning. Yeah, it’s probably, Don, you’re right that the next really good chance is going to be Wednesday, because Monday might be a little weird with a half day. I bet a lot of traders are going to take a long weekend and not be around. That may be true. Next week might be a little bit of a slow week, we’ll see.

Any case, statistically this is not the time of day that I usually do something really impressive and I don’t want to risk screwing up a good month with a random trade during the lunch hour on a Friday. That seems like asking for trouble. If it means that I miss something on SRSC, the good news is that the market will be here on Monday, opportunities will come back Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday next week. That’s kind of the game plan for me right now. Know when to take the money and walk away. It’s not about trying to make the absolute most you possibly can. It’s about knowing when to take a good, modest profit and pack your bags, be done for the day.

That’s the game plan for me here finishing the week up a little over $8,000. I’m very happy with that. That’s a solid week. I’m not sure what my best week of the year is, it’s probably in the $30,000-$35,000 range, but $8,000 is still a good week and hopefully the strong momentum that we’ve seen here at the very end of June is an indicator of what we’ll see through the month of July. With that, I’ll let you guys enjoy the weekend and if you have any questions of course feel free to email, but otherwise I’ll see you first thing on Monday.

Oh hey, I didn’t see you there. I was just working on the dream board for my next home run trade. Hopefully it comes soon. Until then, make sure you subscribe to get email alerts any time I go live or upload new videos. Until then, happy surfing.