Warrior Trading Blog

Boxing Match with Markets | Steve’s Futures Pulse 194

Steve_8.15

Hey, what’s up, fellow traders? Thanks for watching. Happy Thursday to you by the way. What an exciting week in commodity trading world. The market’s up and then the next day it’s down and it’s up again and down again, riding the wave. It’s been a challenging week of trading, that’s for sure. We’ve staggered a red day on Monday, come back with a strong green day on Tuesday, red day yesterday and then again today, a green day, so it’s setting the stage for an exciting Friday, which is going to dictate whether we finish in the red or in the green for the entire week. I’m super excited about it. We’re going to see which opportunities I can find, but before I do, we’ve got some catching up to do. Let’s take a look at yesterday’s challenging session in the Light Sweet Crude. That’s what I have on the board here and then we’re going to go into today’s opportunities that we found in the e-mini S&P, getting it all back and a little extra.

Alright, let’s dive into the charts here. Down below, this is the 10-minute Light Sweet Crude chart. And this is the bar right here that gave me what I like to call a fake out breakout. Okay, market was down big, okay, hen we got together in the morning, market got down big. Exhaustion warnings started to appear and we started to see our TAZ navigator give us at least a glimpse into some possible breakouts to the upside so intra-bar on this level right here, we initiated a long position.

It broke above 55.31. That’s that supply level, which is the red line. We initiated our first entry on a three unit at 55.34, okay? Our initial stop on this one, which I didn’t think we were going to get to, later what I realized that was not to be the case. We were going to get there, was two ticks down below our technical low at 54.79. On the pullback here, later in the bar, we did add at 23 more units so we ended up with a total of six units with an average price of 55.27 but again, we stuck to our stop and I’m glad we did because this is where we got out at 54.79.

We ended up basically losing 28.80 on that one, which is okay for me, well within my risk tolerance and look what the market did later in the morning and later into the afternoon. It kept on going. This was a good reminder of how important it is to get on the sideline when the market is just not being cooperative. Later in the afternoon, actually later part of the afternoon, we did actually try one more time on the long side in crude when the market, on an intra-bar basis and a little bit shorter term timeframe, was 1:45 PM. We entered a long position, 55.08. Again, just a small three unit position and then we gave 14 more cents to the trade so actually we added another $420 worth of in the red so we ended up down $3,300 yesterday, which I was kind of bummed because we worked so hard on Tuesday to fight back from our rough start on Monday, which was over $5,900 we lost on Monday. One of my worst days in quite some time.

But we got almost all of it back on Tuesday and then again kind of coming back and then giving some more to the market yesterday. So anyways, that brings us to today and the market of the day or of our focus today was e-mini S&P’s. So let’s talk a little bit about our e-mini S&P, having learned my lesson, if you will, on fighting the bearish crude market yesterday. Today we saw the market was spending the lion’s share of the morning in the bear camp, down below our demand area that comes in at 28. 50 and a half. That’s that green horizontal line depicted there by Taz boxes, the man level. When the market was down below there, we did initiate our first position on the short side. As you might suspect, this was actually a little after 9:00, 9:20, so let me go find the 9:20 bar. Right here. It’s this bar right here. We initiate our short position rate at 28.50 even. Again this bar right here, we like to work on initially a wide stop on this one. We did put it at 61 and a quarter, which was up above here. We ended up later moving it down as we got the market break that we were looking for.

Okay, so we’re on the short side at 28.50. Market actually came up a little bit here. We actually added to the position here at 51 and a quarter, which ended up being a good move because we are a POC, which is that aqua color line right here and right here. This held numerous times. It held, held, held, and then look what happens. You get the break lower and then as the market retreats down here, this is when we went into profit taking mode. We started taking profits in a few different places along the way here on this one. If you look at the 9:30 bar, we covered our first at 45 and a half again, so 50 is just a little south of that green line. 45 and a half comes down to right about here. This was the little snippet we made on a scalp trade, relatively short live trade. I think it was about 15, basically about 15 minutes, 10, 15 minutes, something like that and felt pretty good about that actually. As the market started to kind of work its way back, I still wanted to secure our profitability. So we covered additional units, six of them, in fact, at 49 and three quarters.

So with our cost average, having added up at the 51 and a quarter area which still was a victory for us. And then our very last places that we ended up covering on this trade was 51 even. Okay. So again, we sold at 50, added at 51 and a quarter. On the way down, we covered at 45 and a half, 49 and three quarters and 51 is where we ended up getting stopped out of the trade. So, all in all, it ended up being a real nice trade. We did find one other opportunity to get on the short side a little later in the afternoon on a very small position. We saw the market breakdown a little later in the morning and actually, I said afternoon, morning at 10:06 which I’ll go to that bar over here, there we go right here. It’s this bar. We initiate a short position as the market was starting to break free of that congestion.

Again, look at all this congestion up here. So as the market started breaking free, we initiated just a small three unit position at 43 and a half. And then we ended up covering all three units, two at 28.40 and then we had pulled our stop down as that market was retreating down below here. You see we started getting down to 36 and a quarter. It was actually starting to look like that market was going to give us perhaps a little windfall for maybe 10, 15 points on that last single unit runner trade. Instead, the market did come back up here and we did get stopped out at that 40, so not bad. We added a little extra on the trade and all told, 37.50 when it was all said and done today, which obviously covered yesterday’s challenging day and a little extra as well.

So fast forward, we’re at the end of the day, I’m done trading today. I’m going to come back at it tomorrow and really kind of tomorrow kind of dictates where we’re going to fall in this volatile trading day. Are we going to finish strong in the green. Are we going to finish in the red? This is part of trading. Okay. Wins, losses on a per trade basis, on a per day and per week basis. Sometimes it’s a real battle like it’s been this week. So kudos to to those of you that are keeping your sanity in these markets while still trying to be opportunistic.

Okay, look forward to meet you back at the markets tomorrow morning. Obviously for those of you that want to get the real time calls and want to see this emerge live, you’ve got to come into the futures trading chat room with me each morning. That’s where I call out all these live as opposed to, of course, the delay recaps. Look forward to seeing you there. Trade well and be well in the meantime. Bye. Bye.

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